Preliminary Election Analysis

 My prediction was very accurate.  I forecasted that that it would come down to 5 states (AZ, GA, PA, MI, WI).  Whoever won any 3 out 5 would win the election.  I predicted 3 point wins for Trump in GA and AZ, which meant that Harris would have to sweep the Rust Belt.  A tall order.  I liked Trump's chances best in Wisconsin (by 1-2) while Pennsylvania and Michigan would go down to the wire.  Trump would win PA by less than 1 but lose Michigan by a similar margin.

Nevada, Arizona and Michigan haven't been called yet but I expect that all will be added to the Trump column.  

I'm just going to highlight a few surprises:

Although Trump didn't make a dent in deep blue states like Maryland and Massachusetts, he was surprisingly competitive in New Jersey and Illinois.  

IIRC, Harris won NJ by only 5 points.  Illinois by 8 and even New York was barely double digits.  In recent years, New York and Illinois are D by 20 which NJ is D by 15.  Interesting.  Word on the street is that immigration was a big factor in the Republican swing, particularly in Chicago.  

My biggest disappointment was Colorado (D-11).  After apartments in the Denver area were taken over by Venezuelan gangs, they still voted for open borders?  I was in Denver earlier this year.  Yes, I still liked it but it has gone downhill since my first visit in 2010.  

New Hampshire and Virginia were closer than last time but it would take a near landslide to flip those 2.  Minnesota would have been closer without Walz on the ticket and New Mexico could perhaps be flipped in the future.

Republican states:

Georgia by 2- Too close for comfort but I'll take it.  I didn't look at the county results yet but I suspect that the Atlanta suburbs did NOT swing back to Trump.  Rather, Harris didn't run up the score in the city of Atlanta.  I read that 25 percent of black men in GA voted for Trump.  Pennsylvania is as red as Georgia.  I didn't see that coming.   

Florida by 14- Not a huge surprise after DeSantis won in a blowout 2 years ago but the margin was bigger than expected.

Texas by 14- Probably the biggest and most pleasant surprise.  I'll bet Trump won the Rio Grande Valley.  I'm curious how he did in suburban Houston and Dallas.  Democrats predicted that demographic shifts would make Texas competitive by now.  Not gonna happen.  I'd be very curious about the Latino vote in Texas compared to California or even Arizona.  Pretty safe to say that Texas Latinos are more Republican than elsewhere.  

Final thought:

Not a landslide but a decisive win for Trump.  Harris would have had to flip 3 states and the 3rd closest was decided by more than 2 points.  Even if there was fraud, it's pretty hard to argue that it made the difference.  

The system works.  Biden has not been an effective president and 72 percent believe that the country is on the wrong track.  Democrats deserved to lose.  For anyone who fears that this is the end of American democracy.  Don't.  There will be another election in 4 years.  If Trump's policies fail, the Republican nominee will lose in 2028.

Republicans have a deep bench.  I'd be good with Vance, Ramaswamy, Tulsi or DeSantis in 2028.  If I had to choose now, my ticket would be Vivek as P and Tulsi as VP 

Training 11/4-11/10

 11/4-AM.  I may have spoken too soon about the need for Thym Adren being manageable.  I got hit with a SEVERE adrenal spike yesterday afternoon and evening.  Cut the Melatonin dose down to 5 mg and it remains effective.  It will probably be effective at 3 mg.  

Opened with a 1:59 half lap (11:54 pace).  In recent days, I was marginally better after taking formerly problematic pills.  Today, I was still BAD but SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER on Taurine and Colostrum.  Improved to 1:48 (10:48 pace).  Not sure what to make of that but I suspect that Taurine is good for an adrenal spike.

Took the max dose of Thym Adren (8 pills) and tried again.  Improved to 1:24 (8:24 pace).  Much better but still a far cry from the 1:06 morning session that I managed before the adrenal spike.  

Reaction:

Is the Melatonin tolerated at 5 mg?  I really can't say yes or no with certainty but I'd wager that 90 percent of my slowdown can be explained by the adrenal spike.  I still plan to gradually cut the dose and eventually see if I can manage a few days without it.  

As for the adrenal spike, the news is not all bad.  Even with the max dose, it still wasn't enough to get me back to form.  The 24 second gap is 2:24 per mile, which is BIG but that's only 3 seconds per pill.

  I'd only be marginally faster on 1 pill.  I'd actually rather see only modest gains from a pill than a night and day difference.  Why?  That shows reduced dependence. I HATED having to hit a sweet spot every day while shooting at a moving target.  The adrenal spike will eventually go down and I will get back to form.  It won't require a mega dose to get there.  In fact, I plan to gradually cut it starting today.

PM- Montreat Mile in 9:56.  Ugly result but I got a BIG VICTORY.  I took 5 mg of Melatonin after the first 2 laps.  Splits were 3:20-3:19-3:17.  Marginally FASTER AFTER MELATONIN! On both 10 mg and 8 mg, I got an immediate negative reaction.  

 There is a good chance that I have found a dosage that is both tolerated AND eliminates the inexplicable reactions!!  When the adrenal spike goes down, I believe that I will see reduced need for Thym Adren.  The stable chemistry will allow me to train consistently and meet the minimum standard for demand #3.

The degree of dependency on Melatonin still remains to be seen.  Maybe I can get away with a lower dosage.  Maybe I can get away with an occasional missed dose.  Maybe not.  Even still, if I have to take 5 mg every night, that's a price that I will gladly pay.

Distance-1.5

11/5- AM- No run.  Went directly to my polling place this morning.  Adrenal spike is still there but I cut the Thym Adren from 8 to 6.  Hope to see a modest gain this evening.  I will cut the Melatonin to 4 mg tonight.

PM- Repeated the Montreat Mile and my time is down to 9:05. Splits were 3:02-3:05-2:58.  About what I expected if not a little better.  It was obvious that this adrenal spike is not a 1-2 day blip.  Rather, it will go down gradually.  I sliced 51 seconds off yesterday's time and am within 95 of a PR.  From that perspective, this looks pretty good.  Tomorrow is perhaps more important.  I want to see continued improvement on a reduced dose albeit at a slower rate.  4 pills tomorrow.  Hoping to see an 8:30-8:45.

Distance-1.0

11/6- Slightly better than expected again.  Vestavia Mile in 8:08.  Splits were 1:59-2:06-2:04-1:59.  Did this on lowered doses of Melatonin and Thym Adren.  Did not try formerly problematic pills but I doubt it would have been a problem.  MINUS 57 compared to yesterday and 38 away from a PR.

Montreat vs Vestavia route:  A PR is only legal on a track even though Montreat is probably slightly tougher.  I suspect that Montreat is 15-20 yards short but that's offset by the hills so the difference is negligible.

Dependence on Pills

 Once again, my demands are hardly unreasonable.  I've accepted that I will never be free from the pills.  A total cure is unrealistic.  I only wish to get it under control with treatment.  So far, I am doing great on Demand #1.  The inexplicable reactions have stopped.  That's the one that I needed the most.  It still remains to be seen if these reactions will still be gone at 3 mg but I have a good feeling.  I believe that anything above that dose will trigger morning issues.  Enough about that for now.

Regarding Demand #2:

The Melatonin is not a magic bullet that cures all of my chemical imbalances.  I had no such expectation My adrenals remain unbalanced and I still need support in that area.  Also, without at least semi-regular B-12, I will have issues with pernicious anemia. As long as it's controlled with treatment, I can live with that.

What happens if I miss a dose of Thym Adren?

I was slightly slower but not enough to be considered significant.  The gap in a sprint was only 15 seconds per mile and I believe that some of that was due to natural variability.  That said, if I go 3 days without it, yes I will start to feel a little bit off.  If I had to go 5 days, it will get ugly.

Even though 11/1 was a downer, I still beat the previous day's time on a tougher course.  I attribute that to the reduced Melatonin dose.  I began the workout with a noticeable increase in energy on 8 mg vs 10 but faded down the stretch because of adrenal imbalances.  I recognized what was wrong and made the correction before things got too ugly.  I can live with that. 

 It was not a shock that I had to raise my dosage.  Adrenals often spike temporarily after a major problem is solved.  The difference between 3 and 5 pills was 30 seconds per mile.  That's significant but not a night and day difference.  It would not have been a total disaster if I raced a 5K on 3.

I predict that once I hit equilibrium on 5, I will once again be able to get away with an occasional missed dose.  I expect that in time, the dosage will go back to 3.  I'll be sluggish for a couple of days then get 30 seconds faster after going back down to 3.  As long as these adjustments are relatively infrequent, I can live with it.  Hopefully, after I fully adjust to the Melatonin, the adrenal dosage will be consistent.

Now let's compare this to where I was before the Melatonin:

A missed dose of Thym Adren cost me nearly 2 minutes per mile in a sprint. In a real workout, it would have been even worse.  The longer the distance, the uglier it gets.  To put it another way, I could not even function without the Thym Adren.  

Add to that, the dose was a lot more unpredictable.  Some days, I could get by with 3.  Other days, I needed 6 or more.  If I overshot on an adrenal spike, I was CRAP for another 2 days because I took too much.  Taking 3 when I needed 5 and vice versa was a DISASTER.

Conclusion:

Sure, I wish I could get off Thym Adren and I wish the dose was consistent but I am a LOT better.  Again, there is a chance that the adjustments will stop once I am on the Melatonin long-term.

Sleep changes:

This is a minor consideration as I never did have serious sleep issues.  I've noticed that I don't require as much sleep at night and the quality has improved.  I had a funny dream last night that involved being naked at my desk at work.  Nobody noticed but I was afraid of getting caught.

Lowered Melatonin Dose

 I keep hoping to hear something like this from a doctor:  

YES, I have seen patients like you before.  Inexplicable and extreme reactions to pills are usually linked to a specific marker that is either undetectable or off the scale high in lab tests.  Though I can't guarantee that it will be effective for you, many of my patients have had success with X or Y treatment.

No such luck.  In fact, one doctor told me flat out that he has NEVER seen this before in TWENTY YEARS of practice!!

Yesterday's phone consult went about as expected.  He didn't have a simple straight answer but at least he listened (many dismiss it).  Dr. Cole's  protocol is a comprehensive plan to get to the bottom of it that would cost me upwards of $7,500.  I will keep it in mind but it's becoming more and more likely that it won't be necessary.  His at home urine test is what led me to the Melatonin through my own research, and for that I am grateful.

10 mg every night has completely eliminated the inexplicable reactions and significantly reduced the extreme dependency on key pills.  Unfortunately, it leaves me groggy and unmotivated especially in the morning.  By the afternoon, I begin to feel better and am "almost good" by the evening.  

My bare ass minimum standard for racing is a sub-60 minute 10K.  Based on recent evening workouts, I may already be there.  If not, it won't take much additional training to make it.  Just extend the distance of my standard workout to 3-4 miles.  Without the extreme reactions that prevented me from training, I see no reason why I can't do it.

Unfortunately, almost all races take place in the morning.  There is no way that I can meet the standard in the morning.  Last night, I reduced my dosage from 10mg down to 8.  I still got an immediate negative reaction but it was not as severe.  This morning's sprints were significantly better than yesterday morning but not nearly as good as the evening.

More importantly, the problem pills were still tolerated on the lowered dosage.  Once again, I was marginally faster AFTER Taurine and Colostrum.  I will stick with 8mg for 1 more night.  I want to see how bad I do in a real workout in the morning.  I could tweak the formula and take Melatonin at Lunch.  In that case, I would have to endure a rough afternoon but it will clear out by the next morning.

If I drop it down to 5-6 mg, I'm sure that it will reduce the side effects.  I'm not sure if it will remain effective.  Time will tell.  My ideal scenario is to take only 1-3 mg occasionally to prevent flare ups while facing minimal side effects.  If that happens, all of my demands will be met!  Hell, even if I have to take 5 mg every night and it's effective, that's still a LOT better than where I was just 1 week ago