My prediction was very accurate. I forecasted that that it would come down to 5 states (AZ, GA, PA, MI, WI). Whoever won any 3 out 5 would win the election. I predicted 3 point wins for Trump in GA and AZ, which meant that Harris would have to sweep the Rust Belt. A tall order. I liked Trump's chances best in Wisconsin (by 1-2) while Pennsylvania and Michigan would go down to the wire. Trump would win PA by less than 1 but lose Michigan by a similar margin.
Nevada, Arizona and Michigan haven't been called yet but I expect that all will be added to the Trump column.
I'm just going to highlight a few surprises:
Although Trump didn't make a dent in deep blue states like Maryland and Massachusetts, he was surprisingly competitive in New Jersey and Illinois.
IIRC, Harris won NJ by only 5 points. Illinois by 8 and even New York was barely double digits. In recent years, New York and Illinois are D by 20 which NJ is D by 15. Interesting. Word on the street is that immigration was a big factor in the Republican swing, particularly in Chicago.
My biggest disappointment was Colorado (D-11). After apartments in the Denver area were taken over by Venezuelan gangs, they still voted for open borders? I was in Denver earlier this year. Yes, I still liked it but it has gone downhill since my first visit in 2010.
New Hampshire and Virginia were closer than last time but it would take a near landslide to flip those 2. Minnesota would have been closer without Walz on the ticket and New Mexico could perhaps be flipped in the future.
Republican states:
Georgia by 2- Too close for comfort but I'll take it. I didn't look at the county results yet but I suspect that the Atlanta suburbs did NOT swing back to Trump. Rather, Harris didn't run up the score in the city of Atlanta. I read that 25 percent of black men in GA voted for Trump. Pennsylvania is as red as Georgia. I didn't see that coming.
Florida by 14- Not a huge surprise after DeSantis won in a blowout 2 years ago but the margin was bigger than expected.
Texas by 14- Probably the biggest and most pleasant surprise. I'll bet Trump won the Rio Grande Valley. I'm curious how he did in suburban Houston and Dallas. Democrats predicted that demographic shifts would make Texas competitive by now. Not gonna happen. I'd be very curious about the Latino vote in Texas compared to California or even Arizona. Pretty safe to say that Texas Latinos are more Republican than elsewhere.
Final thought:
Not a landslide but a decisive win for Trump. Harris would have had to flip 3 states and the 3rd closest was decided by more than 2 points. Even if there was fraud, it's pretty hard to argue that it made the difference.
The system works. Biden has not been an effective president and 72 percent believe that the country is on the wrong track. Democrats deserved to lose. For anyone who fears that this is the end of American democracy. Don't. There will be another election in 4 years. If Trump's policies fail, the Republican nominee will lose in 2028.
Republicans have a deep bench. I'd be good with Vance, Ramaswamy, Tulsi or DeSantis in 2028. If I had to choose now, my ticket would be Vivek as P and Tulsi as VP
No comments:
Post a Comment