Drafting and Tanking (Football and Baseball)

 

Between 1981 and 2000, 79 Hall of Fame players have been selected in the NFL draft.  Let’s call it 80 when Tom Brady finally retires.  I used this timeframe because almost everyone who was drafted 22 years ago has been retired for 5 years and is now eligible.  A few more players may be inducted down the road, but I don’t believe it will raise the number much higher.  That averages out to an even 4 per draft with a high of 8 and two drafts in which no player was inducted.  Now, let’s break it down further.

Of those 80 Hall of Famers, 48 (60 %) were drafted in the first round.  32 (40%) were among the top 10 picks).  Just 7 were mid- first rounders while 9 were late first rounders.  The remaining 32 were drafted outside the first round and though I didn’t research, I would imagine that most of them were 2^nd or 3^rd rounders.  Therefore, yes you could say that there is an incentive to tank in the NFL.  It may be better in the long run to have a couple horrible seasons than be around .500 every year.  After all, the expected value of the 15^th overall pick is probably not much higher than the 30.^th    By contrast, the 5^th pick will be expected to be much better than the 14th.  Expecting a high draft choice to be a Hall of Famer is too much to ask.  However, a reasonable expectation is that he will have a prime window of several years in which he is among the 5 best at his position (All Star/Pro Bowl caliber).

Because of the importance of high draft choices, I am impressed when a franchise is able to remain a contender for more than about 7-8 consecutive years despite never drafting in the top 10 or even the top 20.  The San Francisco 49ers never lost more than 6 games between 1981-1998 while winning 5 Super Bowls and making the playoffs all but 2 years.  The Pittsburgh Steelers have been .500 or better every season since 2004.  Lastly, New England had a winning record every year from 2001-2019.  Very impressive.  In order to sustain that level of success, a Franchise Quarterback is a necessity.  However, it is not a guarantee.  Green Bay had a few lean years even with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers.  Typically, these teams are able to find greater value in the 2^nd or 3^rd rounds and make wise free agent signings as well.  In some cases, they traded up in the draft and scored big as was the case with Jerry Rice and the 49ers. 

When it comes to Quarterbacks, it is increasingly difficult to get a Franchise player or even a successful starter much beyond early Round 2.  Nowadays, teams are desperate and may reach for 3^rd round talent.   You’ve got about a 50/50 chance of drafting a successful starter in the 1^st round, maybe a little less.  It’s a dilemma.  Some teams are willing to give up multiple first rounders for a veteran QB such as Russell Wilson or Matthew Stafford.  If it is a safe bet that you won’t have any losing seasons with him at the helm, that can be a good call especially when the next draft class is thin at the position.  Again, there won’t be many Hall of Famers drafted outside the Top 10. 

Some teams can hedge their bets by signing a player who was not a total bust but a bit of a disappointment with their original team while remaining open to drafting a new QB.  IMO, it’s too soon to write off the likes of Mitch Trubisky and Baker Mayfield just yet.  Alex Smith and Ryan Tannehill both thrived in new systems after shaky starts to their careers.  Bringing in the 2^nd coming of Ryan Leaf or JaMarcus Russell for anything more than a shot at 3^rd string is really not smart.  If a team has a need at QB or will have a need very soon, depending on who is available, trading up from say pick 16 to pick 8 could be a big win.  After some internal debate, Pittsburgh decided not to trade up for Roethlisberger but would take him if available at Pick 11.  They were very fortunate that at least 2 QB needy teams elected to pass.  In a head scratcher, Cleveland chose to roll with Tim Couch and Kelly Holcombe while Detroit stuck with a young Joey Harrington.  If you make a mistake on a high first round QB, it will set the franchise back 5 years and the coach will almost certainly be fired.     

Now, let’s look at baseball.  Within the same 1981-2000 timeframe, the 1^st overall pick produced just 2 Hall of Famers (Ken Griffey Jr. and Chipper Jones).  Alex Rodriguez would have made it 3 if not for the steroids.    Surprisingly, there were only TWO OTHER HOFers drafted in the top 10 in those years (Frank Thomas and Barry Larkin).  Edit:  Barry Bonds would make it 3.  Unless there is a consensus, once a decade type talent available, tanking for a high draft choice is NOT the answer.   It seems like you are just about as likely to get an All-Star caliber player in the mid-late first round as you are with the number 2 or 3 overall pick.  Pitchers are especially risky given the increasing rate of UCL injuries.  Tommy John surgery is usually successful but it’s hardly a guarantee.  Stockpile bats instead and trade for arms.    

In recent years, several quality mid-level free agents have gone unwanted and had to settle for low-ball one-year deals if that.  The thinking is that it is not worth it to sign a $10MM player to lift your team’s win total from 65 to 68.  I would disagree.  You can certainly strike gold on 3 mid-level free agents and end up getting more combined value than from one superstar.  Suppose a couple other prospects see unexpected break throughs.  It is certainly possible for that team to be a surprise contender.

I don’t know the full details of the new CBA agreement, but I don’t believe anything substantive was done about the tanking problem.  I have proposed having to go back ten spots in the draft for back-to-back 100 loss seasons.  Another idea that I liked better was to re-order the draft such that the team that just missed the playoffs gets the number 1 pick while the worst team gets pick number 20.  I don’t believe that would have much of an impact.  As stated above, a high draft pick does not have the same value in baseball as it does in football.  My new solution is to penalize tanking teams by cutting their stake in revenue sharing.  I’d keep the penalty threshold at back-to-back 100 loss seasons.  Any team can be hit with terrible luck once.  Consecutive years with bottom of the league payroll and 100+ losses?  No.  That is tanking.    

March Training

 Sorry to be negative but this hurts!  No matter how hard I try, I just cannot plug all the leaks.  As soon as I solve one problem, another one springs up.  What is especially disheartening is that I often have a couple of days in which it seems like I am improving then WHAM, I am hit with another crushing relapse.  

I began the month with an extreme need for Fulvic Acid but limited tolerance to it and complete intolerance to Thym-Adren (adrenal suppressants).  I end the month with Fulvic Acid being just like all the other treatments.  I can get away with not taking it for a few days but probably cannot stop it altogether.  I also went through a period of extreme need for TRS but that too has faded.  I now have an extreme need for Thym-Adren.  Yes, that's right. The same stuff was not tolerated just 2 weeks ago but now I have an extreme need for it.  Nothing new for me.  I will never be happy unless I get this "under control" and I don't believe anyone else could handle it much better.

On the weekend of March 5-6, I did something crazy that bordered on stupid.  Some people are familiar with the California Double in the Los Angeles area.  That involves skiing in the morning then driving 2 hours for an afternoon and evening surf session.  The Carolina Combo is what I did.  On Friday, I drove to Charleston, South Carolina (7 hours) but arrived in time to take a dip before sunset.  Though it was sunny for most of the drive, it was overcast on the coast on both Friday night and Saturday morning.

At any rate, I was up and out the door just after 6 AM for a surf session at Isle of Palms and stayed until about 11 AM.  Air temp was in the low 60s with a water temperature of 58F.  Too cold for swim trunks but with a wetsuit, I was fairly comfortable.  Yes, there were other surfers in the water.  Surf conditions were strong enough to fun but strong enough to cause any wipeouts.  That was fine with me.  Going under in 58 degree water without any head protection was not real appealing.  At least I know what to expect if I ever hit the Pacific Northwest.  My wetsuit should work fine from Santa Cruz all the way up to the state of Washington in the summer.  Not sure if it is thick enough for Alaska or even British Columbia.

I grabbed something mediocre to eat between Charleston and Columbia then kept driving until I reached Maggie Valley, North Carolina (4-4.5 hours).  I arrived on time for a 5PM to close ski session at Cataloochee Ski Area.  That's right.  I went surfing and skiing on the same day.  Only I would even think of doing something like that.  I caught some nice mountain sunset views but with Spring just around the corner, ski conditions were poor.  There was quite a bit of mud, bare spots and slippery slopes.  I took one spill but handled the Beginner and Intermediate slopes.  Needless to say, I was completely exhausted at the end of the day as well as the next day.  Fortunately, I got home at a decent hour on Sunday. I do NOT recommend doing this.  Back to back days is fine.  You can have a nice surf session in Charleston then spend the night in Greenville/Spartanburg.  From there, it's not long to the NC mountains.  

 I binged on caffeine then had a reaction to it.  I've heard conflicting reports on caffeine's effect on detox.  Some reports say that it interferes with detox while others say it enhances its effects.  In any event, it should be avoided, and I've been pretty good about that lately.  Detox too quickly and the symptoms can be unbearable.  That explains the narrow range of tolerance to Fulvic Acid.  Too much triggered too much detox for me to handle.  

The spill on the slopes left me with a bit of knee soreness but it was no worse when running.  All I was able to do was junk anyway, so it really didn't matter.  By the middle of the month, it seemed like Fulvic Acid was becoming less of an extreme need as I was not significantly better after the drops.  I tried the stronger powder, which I could not tolerate before. Much to my relief, I was actually slightly BETTER but not enough to be considered significant.  At this point, it was becoming increasingly clear that detox was the cause of my symptoms.  For the next week, while the Fulvic Acid was no longer a critical need, I found that I felt much better after several sprays of TRS as well as immediately after going to the toilet.  I also got occasional stabbing pains in my organs.  That is DEFINITELY DETOX!  For those who say I should see a "real doctor," he or she CANNOT help with this!  I just have to let it run its course and hope against hope that it will eventually end.  

Towards the end of last week, the critical need for TRS also began to fade.  Though it wasn't pretty, I got through 5 miles yesterday in a time of 45:46 (9:09 pace).  That's right on the edge of sub-2 half marathon pace.  I wasn't completely spent either.  I had a couple more miles in the tank.  I followed that up with 3@8:33 this morning.  On the surface, it looks like a slightly better result, but I knew I was in trouble after fading badly down the stretch.  By lunch time, I was AWFUL!  As is often the case, after a major problem is solved, the adrenals temporarily spike.  I was much better after a few doses of Thym-Adren.  

What happens next?  Since the blood donation was just 6 weeks ago, I don't have to worry about Iron Overload.  The adrenal spike will calm down soon and I will probably be intolerant to Thym-Adren again.  The plan is to gradually reduce the dose from 6 pills down to 4 then 3 and so on.  Is it clear sailing after that?  Highly doubtful.  I will probably face another round of detox and the cycle will repeat itself.   

Racing Hawaii:

I am officially OUT for the April race.  I'm still considering Memorial Day but am leaning towards November in Oahu.  It's impossible to predict my health and fitness but it's a better fit for my travel schedule.  I'd like to go to the Outer Banks and So-Cal this summer.  No way that I can squeeze in Hawaii as well but if I want until November, maybe.  Still no confirmation one way or the other about the vackseen requirement.

Rant: Romance Scams

 I've been targeted several times over the past few months and it makes me VERY angry.  Preying on a single man who is lonely and depressed with over the top love notes in order to extort money is about as low of a blow as you can go.  If there is any justice in this world, karma will come back to bite these awful women.  For the record, yes I'd be just as upset if a man was using me for the same purpose but it has only happened once.  

You should see some of the messages that I get from women that I've never met and have only talked to online for a few weeks.  I'm not half bad looking for a guy in his early 40s and have an attractive smile even if I do say so myself.  Some of them are genuinely attracted and sincerely want to get to know me but I can usually tell pretty early on who has good intentions and who does not.  

Most recently, I was told that life without me "was like body without soul."  Another wanted to be "together forever" after the first message exchange and within weeks said that she loved me "more than anything else in the world."  Another repeatedly talked about wanting to marry me even after I told her that such talk made me feel uncomfortable.  In all of these cases, we had never met in person and had only been talking online for a few weeks.  In general, if she comes on too strong too soon, 9 times out of 10, it is a sign of trouble.  Another potential red flag is an insistence on talking on private forums such as Google chat or via text message.  If you ask for money on Instagram or Facebook, you can be reported or even banned if you do so repeatedly.  Not so on private chats.  

Their strategies can be varied.  Some will start out by simply saying that gas is so high and that they are struggling financially.  Can you just give me a few bucks?  I promise that I'll never ask again.  HA!  I expressed interest in meeting someone from Miami if I am in Fort Lauderdale next month.  I offered to buy her a meal with drinks but she is on her own for gas money.  It's only about 20 miles from Miami to Lauderdale and I have to pay $4+ per gallon too.  Nope, she wanted gas money now before we even met at all.  No way Jose!  I politely declined and guess what?  No more messages from her.  If I had given her $50 or so, I can pretty much guarantee that next month, she will have a more serious emergency that will require more money and no that will NOT be the last time either.  

Others will go right for the throat.  Something terrible will happen if they don't get the money (usually a fairly large amount) and I am the only one that can stop it.  In these cases, they usually wait a few weeks and chat with me every day in order to build trust.  They will seem to be caring and ask me about my job and about my health.  Then all of a sudden, they are hit with an emergency and instead of asking close friends or family for help, they turn to a guy that they only know online and for just a few weeks.  These cases make me a lot more angry than the scenario described above.  I'm quite sure that I am not the only man that they are targeting either.

Medical expenses are my weakness and yes I will sometimes donate up to $100-150, but only if they have set up a fundraiser. In fact, I've done so twice this year.  I do have a heart but I need to be sure that the need is legitimate and I am more inclined to help if it is someone that I've known for years.  I will not send blanket payments via Paypal or World Remit.  In these cases, if you say no, they will keep begging.  If, in a moment of weakness, you decide to chip in some cash, you better believe it will NOT be the last time either.  They will have a new emergency next month that will be even more pressing than the previous one.  The only was to stop this is to block and report them.  I've got some cash to spare but just like En Vogue, no you're never gonna get it!    

February Training

 Overall, I fared no better than I did in January.  In fact, I was probably worse.  I began the month with an adrenal spike that simply would not go down.  A few days into the month, I developed sudden and seemingly inexplicable reactions to Adenosyl B12 and Whole Food Vitamin C.  Vitamin C as Ascorbic Acid WAS tolerated and so with Methyl B12.  I later developed intolerance to the latter.  This was EXTREMELY MADDENING because I thought that the Intrinsic Factor was supposed to stop this from happening.   

Fortunately, there really WAS an explanation.  It was Iron Overload, which is often the culprit behind extreme adrenal over-activity.  It had been approximately one year since my last blood donation, and I also learned that the B12 that I take for Pernicious Anemia also raises Iron levels.  So too does Whole Food Vitamin C.  The solution was blood donation, which was done on the afternoon of February 13.  It is likely that I had Iron Overload AND Pernicious Anemia at the same time, and it would make sense that I felt better if I had both rather than one or the other because of compensation issues.   

No immediate impact was apparent but by the time I left for Arizona on 18^th, my dosage of Thym-Adren (adrenal suppressant) was trending down from a need of 6 pills per day down to 2-3.  A few days after I returned to Alabama, I could no longer tolerate the very pills that I could not function without just a couple weeks earlier.  I have no doubt that it was the blood donation that made the difference.  Once the mega doses wear off, it will probably be tolerated again but not necessary.  I’ll just have to keep donating every 4-6 months to prevent the adrenals from spiking again.  I was actually pleased by this development.  It was a sign of better adrenal balance.  That left me with only one must take treatment, which was the Fulvic Acid.  I was curious as to how the adrenal balance would affect my need/tolerance for the Fulvic Acid.

I tried to go without Fulvic Acid, and I knew on the afternoon of the first day that I still needed it.  No need to run to test things out.  Next, I tried a large dose of powder.  Bad call there too.  It proved to be too much and that became apparent on the second day.  Finally, I went back to the drops and have been gradually increasing my dose.  I’ve seen improvements in the last couple of days and I was less horrible without it this morning.  I predict the usual pattern in which the gap between the floor and ceiling will decrease.  Perhaps the Fulvic Acid will eventually become like the other treatments.  I won’t notice any problems unless I don’t take it for 5-7 days.  In other words, if I forget to pack it before a weekend trip, no big deal.  I would call that “under control.”

Needless to say, with all those crashes and adjustments, I did very little running and nothing longer than 3 miles.  On another note, I had hoped to find out from the blood donation, whether or not I have COVID antibodies.  So far, no word one way or the other.  Regardless, I am DONE with COVID.  Starting now, I will NOT shy away from crowded events even if they are indoors.  I will only wear a mask if I have to do so, such as on an airplane.  If a destination has vackseen or mask requirements, I just won’t go until they are lifted.  My only POSSIBLE exception would be Hawaii and that is only because it is my 50^th half marathon state.