Yes, there was some degree of fraud. Was it enough to change the outcome? I remain uncertain but suspicious that it did. I'm going to say possible but bordering on probable. After a bit more analysis from David Leip's Atlas, I have found several curious results.
Let's start with evidence against Trump:
He's 38 EV short of 270. Even if he legitimately won Georgia and Arizona, which were decided by about a quarter of 1 percent, he's still 11 votes short. Even Wisconsin would not be enough. He'd need to flip PA, which was decided by nearly a full percentage point or 80K votes. That's pretty steep. Still, Georgia, Pennsylvania plus any other state would put him over the top.
I looked at the county by county votes in the swing states. I did not find any rural counties that flipped massively to Biden after a big Trump win in 2016. That would be too easy to spot. Biden did in fact pick up a couple of counties that were close Trump wins in 2016.
Curious Findings:
Let's start with the Hispanic vote:
Trump gained massive ground in Miami Dade and the Rio Grande valley in Texas. Biden under-performed Clinton by 13 in Miami and in some cases 30+ in south Texas. The reasons for that are understandable. Socialism doesn't sell among Cubans and Venezuelans because they've personally seen the damage that it does.
In south Texas, I believe the reason is increased support for border control during a pandemic. What kind of fool would support caravans of migrants pouring in while COVID cases are spiking? It remains to be seen whether or not this trend continues in 2024. As is the case in many other suburban areas, Trump lost significant ground in formerly deep red areas surrounding Houston and Dallas. He will need those votes to keep Texas red.
However, those gains among Hispanics did NOT carry over to New Mexico and Arizona. Again, Hispanics are not a monolith but I still find it curious the he did so much better in Texas but worse in crucial Arizona
Urban areas:
According to exit polls, Trump doubled Romney's share of the black vote. I suspect it may actually be a touch higher because people may not want to admit it to pollsters in front of their significant other. Therefore, as expected Biden under-performed both Clinton and Obama as a percentage in most major cities such as New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. Trump consistently gained about 4-5 points in each of those counties. HOWEVER, in cities like Milwaukee, Detroit and Atlanta, the opposite occurred. Biden significantly outperformed Clinton while the number of votes also spiked. In Philadelphia, I saw about what I expected. Trump did marginally better as a percentage but was hurt by increased turnout. The suburbs do look fishy as I will explain next.
Suburbs:
Yes, I believe that it is true that Trump is losing educated suburban types and was also hurt by those who switched from 3rd party candidates to Biden. However, the margins of victory by Biden as well as the turnout especially in suburban Atlanta and Philadelphia look suspicious. I will highlight Cobb county Georgia, which is in the northwest suburbs of Atlanta and once a Republican stronghold that gave us Newt Gingrich. Biden outperformed Obama's 2012 showing by 24 points and Clinton's by 12. The vote total increased by 25% versus 2016. I'm familiar with this county and have seen some changes due to migration and demographics. Still, that much of change in just 2 short election cycles is hard to believe but not unprecedented..
Vote counting:
In Ohio and Iowa, mail in votes were counted first. As a result, Trump was trailing in both states until about 75% of the precincts were reported but surged ahead and neither was close at the end. When the vote counting paused in the middle of the night, Trump was leading Michigan by 10 and Pennsylvania by 15. I knew those margins would never hold but I remain suspicious about what happened overnight. Obviously, mail in ballots were counted last in both states and Biden's margins were huge. I have my suspicions that some Biden votes were illegal and Trump votes were destroyed. Even the news media reported that the latter occurred in Georgia. Recently, a video was uncovered in which several suitcases of ballots were uncovered after counting stopped in Georgia. What happened there?
Mail in ballots:
There are unconfirmed reports of ballot curing in Democratic areas. That is, ballots are filled out incorrectly but changed by poll workers in accordance with voter intentions. Also, in most elections, about 3% of mail in ballots are rejected due to missing or mismatched signatures. In this election, that number dropped to just 0.03% while such ballots heavily favored Biden.
Dominion Software:
Here's where it borders on conspiracy territory. The CEO allegedly said to Antifa that he made effing sure that Trump would not win. Could be fake news there but there are reports in which Biden outperformed expectations in areas where the software was used while underperforming elsewhere. There were also reports of an algorithm to change a small percentage of Trump votes to Biden. If it's just 1 out of 50, it turns a 50/50 county to 52/48, which won't even be questioned. If this turns out to be baseless, I will admit it and retract this paragraph but I still want to see a full audit of those machines. After all, Republicans had to listen to the Russia conspiracy theories for 3 years.
Conclusion:
I believe Georgia was stolen for sure and probably Arizona but I am not convinced about the other states being challenged. In the future, Democrats are counting on maintaining 75% of the non-white vote and once that share tops 40% of the electorate, it will be virtually impossible for Republicans to win. We will see one party rule with only token opposition. Democrats will drift further left and continue to be re-elected in spite of American decline. No, I don't believe the USA will turn into Venezuela, at least not anytime soon. Still, when I retire in about 20 years, Communist China will take over as the number 1 superpower and we will see extended economic stagnation. Not good.
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