Weather is going to be cold, and/or rainy and windy all week so I anticipate being indoors most of the time.
I've decided to skip the Mercedes 5K because I don't think I'll be competitive.
2/16- AM. VERY POOR. 3 miles in 25:49 (8:36 pace). Perhaps the SAM-e has not cleared. I may be overly sensitive to the methyl donors, which accomplishes nothing. Just trading one sensitivity for another.
PM- WORSE than this morning. Hell, I ran better when I had the flu last week. It is becoming increasingly clear that I have indeed TRADED ONE SENSITIVITY FOR ANOTHER! Tomorrow morning will confirm it. Covered only 1 mile and my time was over 9.
Grade:D-/1 credit/distance=4.0
Update: I have ordered the 23 and Me genetic test. I may not get the results for another 2 months so that changes the plans to shut down the blog. The training updates will stop after 3/21 however. It's just been too depressing lately. It's almost a certainty that something abnormal will show up and highly unlikely that it will be a quick fix.
2/17-AM. 2 miles in 15:28 (7:44 pace). Big improvement over yesterday afternoon. Took just a trace of DMG afterwards and I was MUCH worse. The methyl donors are OUT. How much do you want to bet that the zinc/copper sensitivity will kick in with a vengeance next week? I am off caffeine again but that hasn't helped me in the recent past.
PM- Took the afternoon off as planned. Picked up a B-complex at the health store with methylated Folate and methylated B-12. I'll wait a couple days before trying it. The genetic test should arrive by the end of the week. It's a painless saliva test.
Grade:C/1 credit/distance=2.0
2/18- Felt pretty rotten when I woke up and figured that I would have struggled for a sub-8 pace. Took the Raw Vitamin Code B complex and began feeling better shortly thereafter. BINGO!
3 miles in 21:23 then popped some B-12 alone and did the same distance in 21:37. That's not a significant change in pace so figure that the extra B-12 had no real impact one way or another Good news I suppose. Took another B-complex and ran another mile at the same effort in 7:09. Total distance was 7 miles in 50:09 (7:10 pace). I may salvage a respectable showing in Arizona. Don't write me off just yet.
This is NO cause for celebration! I'm not on solid ground with the zinc/copper and I took 3 B-complex today. How much will I need/tolerate tomorrow? Your guess is as good as mine. As for the Bs, I need a specific form the the vitamins. If I took the synthetic form of folic acid rather than methyl folate, I'd do more harm than good if I am positive on the MTHFR mutation. Same with B-12, it's got to be the methyl form or I could have a slight build up of cyanide. I'm going with the Raw B complex. It's RAW man!
Grade:A-/2 credit/distance=7.0
2/19- Felt pretty rotten when I woke up but got better after taking the 1st dose of the B-complex. Got worse after the 2nd dose. Attempted a tempo and I knew before the end of the 1st lap that I didn't have it. Quit after 1 Mile in 7:30. Took a zinc pill and ran the same distance in 7:24. Took a liver pill and ran it again in 7:28. That's not a significant change in pace so the zinc/copper sensitivity is still manageable.
It is clear that something in the B-complex is helpful and something else is harmful. I did some experiments and determined that it is B-6 that is the problem. I can take only limited doses of it (no more than 10 mg). It's becoming increasingly clear that I am an OVER METHYLATOR, not an under methylator. If that's the case, niacin (B-3) could be helpful.
Grade:D/1 credit/distance=3.0
2/20- The excess B-6 may not have fully cleared but I still managed a decent workout today. Ran the opening Mile in 7:24 then gave Niacin a shot. Tacked on 4 more in 29:09 (7:17 pace) for an overall time of 36:33 for 5 miles at moderate effort. Overall impression of the Niacin is that although it was not a miracle cure, it was a net positive impact. Without it, I probably would have slowed to the 7:30s so that is a significant difference. I did get a pretty hot flush so I will cut the dose in half tomorrow. Since the B-6 must be restricted, I must take other B-vitamins separately. After tomorrow's long run, I will see how I react to extra Folate and/or B-2 (Riboflavin)
Rant: My last MD flat out refused to believe that I could not tolerate B-6. Okay, so WHY DID I FEEL AWFUL WITHIN MINUTES OF TAKING IT? Then, why did I feel better after it cleared? I know now that this intolerance is likely due to a genetic defect.
Grade:B+/1 credit/distance=5.0
2/21- Good call on skipping the 5K because I was AWFUL this morning. I cannot take the methylated forms of folate and B12. Why did I have 1 good day on the B-complex? I don't know but I may be so deficient that even the wrong form helped for a while. I may still need Folic Acid and/or B-12 but it's got to be the un-methylated form, which means that even Jigsaw Mag may have to be restricted. I've wasted over $100 this week alone on supplements that won't work.
The workout: Plan was a long run on Lakeshore and I turned around after a half mile in 4:07 then proceeded to run the back half in 4:19 for an 8:26 finish. Took some extra methyl B-12 after I got home and got even worse, which confirms my theory.
PM- Another better with or without test. Did 1 Mile in a blazing 9:16 then popped an un-methylated B-12 and improved to 7:48 with no additional effort. That's an improvement of nearly 90 seconds for 1 mile all because of 1 freaking pill! Again, there has got to be some defective enzymes involved here and it's becoming increasing clear that genetic defects are in play.
Grade:E/1 credit/distance=3.0
2/22- Another better with or without test this time with the folic acid. Ran the opening mile in 7:22 without it. After taking it, I started off pretty well but faded after the 1st half mile. Managed a 7:20 2nd mile but was done after that. Faded to 7:55 in Mile 3 then called it quits. Overall time was 22:37 for 3 miles (7:32 pace). Poor performance. This means that I am likely positive for the MTHFR mutation.
Grade:D+/1 credit/distance=3.0
Weekly summary:
Only 4 weeks until my deadline and it is looking bleak. I suspect that my increased ceruloplasmin has worsened the over-methylation. If not for the Cp, my zinc/copper imbalance would be far worse however. Based on what I've seen this week, I can just about guarantee genetic defects. Is it treatable? Yes. Completely reversible? Seems unlikely.
Distance= 27.0/ GPA= 16.2/8= 2.03
YTD: 229 miles. Record: 1-5 with a 2.30 GPA
Sunday, February 15, 2015
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
Training 2/9-2/15
2/9- One thing after another. I can take the necessary pills but now I'm down with the flu. Running is out of the question for the next few days.
2/10- Feeling slightly better but still not even back to work yet. A really bad day of adrenal fatigue feels similar to a low-grade flu. There is no fever and chills but the fatigue, body aches and malaise can be just as bad.
Grade:F/1 credit/distance=0
2/11- Back to work today. Still very weak and have a dry cough. Aside from a little bit of hip soreness, my legs don't feel too bad. Did 2 miles at Gold's in 17:56 (8:58 pace) with a slight negative split. Got about what I expected today. I've waited too long for sustained improvement.
Grade:D/1 credit/distance=2.0
2/12- Flu symptoms are almost gone. Zinc/copper sensitivity is still bad. Whole food C is OUT. When it comes to C and zinc, it's got to be both or neither. I'm going with neither. Zinc/copper ratio must be PERFECT everyday and I sure hope that my magic ratio is 20:1 (Thym-Adren). Workout was 3 miles at Gold's and finished in 24:46 (8:15 pace). Decent improvement.
Grade:D+/1 credit/distance=3.0
2/13- The old better with or without test. Ran 1 Mile with Thym-Adren at moderate effort and clocked a 7:44. Popped some ADHS such that the Zn/Cu ratio was about 17:1 and I slipped to over 9 on the next mile with an immediate reaction. Tomorrow, I will see if a 23:1 ratio does the same thing.
Grade:D/1 credit/distance=2.0
2/14- 2nd and last better with or without test. 1 Mile on a 20:1 ratio and my time improved to 6:56 as the flu virus continues to exit my system. Popped half a zinc pill and within minutes, I was awful. Did not even attempt the 2nd mile. There you have it. It's 20:1, neither more nor less. I've got to do something about this. What will work next month?
PM- I believe that the zinc/copper sensitivity stems from poor methylation so on little more than a hunch, I picked up some dimethyl glycine at the health food store. It was no miracle cure but it was certainly a positive reaction. 1 Mile on Wisteria and my time is down to 6:47 on hills with the same 23:1 ratio that failed just a few hours earlier. 20:1 is still the "key" but it may not be disastrous if I deviate a bit. YES! Time to get back to real training now.
Run #3- Hit the track for another Mile and my time was down to 6:24 with even splits (94-98-98-94).
Grade:C-/1 credit/distance=3.0
2/15- Took Thym-Adren plus DMG and hoped to hit 8 miles today. Had to settle for 4 in 31:21 (7:50 pace). Popped some SAM-e (stronger methylator) and got overstimulated so I cut the cool down out.
Grade:C/1 credit/distance=4.0
Weekly summary:
This is my worst start on record.
Distance= 14.0/ GPA= 7.0/6= 1.17
YTD: 202 miles. Record: 1-4 with a 2.37 GPA
2/10- Feeling slightly better but still not even back to work yet. A really bad day of adrenal fatigue feels similar to a low-grade flu. There is no fever and chills but the fatigue, body aches and malaise can be just as bad.
Grade:F/1 credit/distance=0
2/11- Back to work today. Still very weak and have a dry cough. Aside from a little bit of hip soreness, my legs don't feel too bad. Did 2 miles at Gold's in 17:56 (8:58 pace) with a slight negative split. Got about what I expected today. I've waited too long for sustained improvement.
Grade:D/1 credit/distance=2.0
2/12- Flu symptoms are almost gone. Zinc/copper sensitivity is still bad. Whole food C is OUT. When it comes to C and zinc, it's got to be both or neither. I'm going with neither. Zinc/copper ratio must be PERFECT everyday and I sure hope that my magic ratio is 20:1 (Thym-Adren). Workout was 3 miles at Gold's and finished in 24:46 (8:15 pace). Decent improvement.
Grade:D+/1 credit/distance=3.0
2/13- The old better with or without test. Ran 1 Mile with Thym-Adren at moderate effort and clocked a 7:44. Popped some ADHS such that the Zn/Cu ratio was about 17:1 and I slipped to over 9 on the next mile with an immediate reaction. Tomorrow, I will see if a 23:1 ratio does the same thing.
Grade:D/1 credit/distance=2.0
2/14- 2nd and last better with or without test. 1 Mile on a 20:1 ratio and my time improved to 6:56 as the flu virus continues to exit my system. Popped half a zinc pill and within minutes, I was awful. Did not even attempt the 2nd mile. There you have it. It's 20:1, neither more nor less. I've got to do something about this. What will work next month?
PM- I believe that the zinc/copper sensitivity stems from poor methylation so on little more than a hunch, I picked up some dimethyl glycine at the health food store. It was no miracle cure but it was certainly a positive reaction. 1 Mile on Wisteria and my time is down to 6:47 on hills with the same 23:1 ratio that failed just a few hours earlier. 20:1 is still the "key" but it may not be disastrous if I deviate a bit. YES! Time to get back to real training now.
Run #3- Hit the track for another Mile and my time was down to 6:24 with even splits (94-98-98-94).
Grade:C-/1 credit/distance=3.0
2/15- Took Thym-Adren plus DMG and hoped to hit 8 miles today. Had to settle for 4 in 31:21 (7:50 pace). Popped some SAM-e (stronger methylator) and got overstimulated so I cut the cool down out.
Grade:C/1 credit/distance=4.0
Weekly summary:
This is my worst start on record.
Distance= 14.0/ GPA= 7.0/6= 1.17
YTD: 202 miles. Record: 1-4 with a 2.37 GPA
Monday, February 9, 2015
Detox and Prognosis
I know exactly what I need to take to get in balance and have known for 2+ years. It is Thym-Adren + a 1/1 ratio of Calcium/Magnesium. The problem is that there have been a number of factors that have prevented me from tolerating the key pills. My two biggest hurdles have been a congested liver and zinc/copper imbalance. Both of these have been treated.
I often wonder how I was able to do so well in 2011 and 2012. Yes, I was able to bring down my tissue sodium but if you had tested my ceruloplasmin, I bet it would have been in the 15-range (ideal is 25+) and my Mag RBC was likely under 4 (ideal is 6+). In any event, the formula that I had been taking at that time was unsustainable because it contained too much Cal relative to Mag and thus there was no chance to get the adrenal ratio in line. My best Na/Mg ratio on the HTMA was 30/2, which is still very high and I developed severe sugar sensitivity due to the Mag deficiency.Thym-Adren favors zinc over copper so without taking some Liver Beef, my high Zn/Cu ratio will continue to get worse. Despite only taking the Liver Beef off and on, my ceruloplasmin came up from 17.9 to 23.0 in just 3 months. If I can simply maintain it there, I can kiss the copper deficiency goodbye.
My last Na/Mg test was 111/5 and if I can get that down to 30/5, I'm golden. I figure that because I've been consistent with the Thym-Adren for the last 3 weeks, my tissue sodium is probably about 90 now and should get down to 30 within 2 months. I have little doubt that I can maintain the Mag at or near normal.
Over the past week, my system has slowly been rejected the necessary pills. What is supposed to be helpful caused severe muscle stiffness, malaise and depression. The truth is that my liver was too congested as far back as November of last year. There is no reason why I should have had such a nasty reaction to the Liver Beef because my ceruloplasmin was still sub-optimal at 23.0 and yes, I took plenty of zinc to balance the copper. Last week, I developed an intolerance to taurine and the last straw came when I had some trouble to Mag+ Thym-Adren.
Detox protocol:
Day 1: 2 servings of epsom salt water
- nasty mix of grapefruit juice and a half cup of extra virgin olive oil.
Day 2:
- 2 more servings of epsom salt water
-lots of trips to the toilet.
Commonly, you will find a lot of pea sized green and tiny tan "stones." Are these actual gallstones or just a reaction with the olive oil? I don't know and don't really care. All I care about is being able to take the pills I need to get in balance. Yesterday, I got better with an increased Thym-Adren dose and better with the Cal/Mag, which will keep my tissue Na trending down. I took the taurine before bed without a negative reaction. I woke up the next morning and tried the Liver Beef. Again, no negative reaction! I still have hope. I will repeat that if this does not turn around by the Spring, I will declare myself semi-retired. The daily updates will stop. Mileage will be cut and the out of town races will stop after I hit 25 half marathon states. I will limit myself to local races with game time decisions based on how I feel. That would be a very sad day for me but one that I know I must face eventually.
I often wonder how I was able to do so well in 2011 and 2012. Yes, I was able to bring down my tissue sodium but if you had tested my ceruloplasmin, I bet it would have been in the 15-range (ideal is 25+) and my Mag RBC was likely under 4 (ideal is 6+). In any event, the formula that I had been taking at that time was unsustainable because it contained too much Cal relative to Mag and thus there was no chance to get the adrenal ratio in line. My best Na/Mg ratio on the HTMA was 30/2, which is still very high and I developed severe sugar sensitivity due to the Mag deficiency.Thym-Adren favors zinc over copper so without taking some Liver Beef, my high Zn/Cu ratio will continue to get worse. Despite only taking the Liver Beef off and on, my ceruloplasmin came up from 17.9 to 23.0 in just 3 months. If I can simply maintain it there, I can kiss the copper deficiency goodbye.
My last Na/Mg test was 111/5 and if I can get that down to 30/5, I'm golden. I figure that because I've been consistent with the Thym-Adren for the last 3 weeks, my tissue sodium is probably about 90 now and should get down to 30 within 2 months. I have little doubt that I can maintain the Mag at or near normal.
Over the past week, my system has slowly been rejected the necessary pills. What is supposed to be helpful caused severe muscle stiffness, malaise and depression. The truth is that my liver was too congested as far back as November of last year. There is no reason why I should have had such a nasty reaction to the Liver Beef because my ceruloplasmin was still sub-optimal at 23.0 and yes, I took plenty of zinc to balance the copper. Last week, I developed an intolerance to taurine and the last straw came when I had some trouble to Mag+ Thym-Adren.
Detox protocol:
Day 1: 2 servings of epsom salt water
- nasty mix of grapefruit juice and a half cup of extra virgin olive oil.
Day 2:
- 2 more servings of epsom salt water
-lots of trips to the toilet.
Commonly, you will find a lot of pea sized green and tiny tan "stones." Are these actual gallstones or just a reaction with the olive oil? I don't know and don't really care. All I care about is being able to take the pills I need to get in balance. Yesterday, I got better with an increased Thym-Adren dose and better with the Cal/Mag, which will keep my tissue Na trending down. I took the taurine before bed without a negative reaction. I woke up the next morning and tried the Liver Beef. Again, no negative reaction! I still have hope. I will repeat that if this does not turn around by the Spring, I will declare myself semi-retired. The daily updates will stop. Mileage will be cut and the out of town races will stop after I hit 25 half marathon states. I will limit myself to local races with game time decisions based on how I feel. That would be a very sad day for me but one that I know I must face eventually.
Monday, February 2, 2015
Training 2/2-2/8
2/2- AM 3 miles in 23:54 (7:58 pace). Progress. Took practically every ounce of energy to rally for the sub-8 overall. 1st full day off the liver. Back on whole food C but remain off extra zinc.
PM- Same 3 miler but my time is down to 22:48 (7:36 pace). Even pace and same effort as this morning but I was 66 seconds faster than I was only 10 hours ago. So what? That still sucks. 2 years ago, I had a 7 week winning streak snapped and I haven't won more than 3 straight since. It will take a lot more than this to get my hopes up.
Grade:C+/1 credit/distance=6.0
2/3- Another step forward. Lakeshore 5 in 37:40 (7:32 pace). Standard issue. Effort was slightly less than yesterday and I did beat the pace over 2 additional miles. I still don't feel anything like the old me and my shin splints have flared up again. I think I'm going back to zinc.
Grade:B/1 credit/distance=5.0
2/4- Forced rest day. Shin splints are worse. I am in BIG trouble now.
2/5- Still unable to run. Probably it's the pills again. I'd rather be injured and have decent energy. I believe taurine is the culprit. That's right. The same stuff was a life saver back in September. If I am correct, I should begin to feel improvement by afternoon tomorrow.
2/6- I got some improvement but it wasn't as much as I expected. 4 miles in 31:52 (7:58 pace) with a last mile over 9. Still in big trouble. No real issues with my shin but whole body was extremely tight and my weight is up to 165. I'm using this week as my one freebie.
2/7- Bad to worse. Cannot run at all. Zero energy. The more pills I take, the worse I feel. Only a detox can save me now. If that fails, it's over.
If this does work, I'm detoxing every 3 months. Perhaps if I had done so in November, I may not have had so many problems since.
2/8- AM- The detox appears to have been successful. Lots of green and tan stones. Whether or not I will be able to tolerate the needed pills still remains to be seen.
PM- 1 mile junk run. Got progressively better after taking more pills. Dropped 12 pounds in 2 days after the detox.
Distance= 16.0/ YTD: 188
PM- Same 3 miler but my time is down to 22:48 (7:36 pace). Even pace and same effort as this morning but I was 66 seconds faster than I was only 10 hours ago. So what? That still sucks. 2 years ago, I had a 7 week winning streak snapped and I haven't won more than 3 straight since. It will take a lot more than this to get my hopes up.
Grade:C+/1 credit/distance=6.0
2/3- Another step forward. Lakeshore 5 in 37:40 (7:32 pace). Standard issue. Effort was slightly less than yesterday and I did beat the pace over 2 additional miles. I still don't feel anything like the old me and my shin splints have flared up again. I think I'm going back to zinc.
Grade:B/1 credit/distance=5.0
2/4- Forced rest day. Shin splints are worse. I am in BIG trouble now.
2/5- Still unable to run. Probably it's the pills again. I'd rather be injured and have decent energy. I believe taurine is the culprit. That's right. The same stuff was a life saver back in September. If I am correct, I should begin to feel improvement by afternoon tomorrow.
2/6- I got some improvement but it wasn't as much as I expected. 4 miles in 31:52 (7:58 pace) with a last mile over 9. Still in big trouble. No real issues with my shin but whole body was extremely tight and my weight is up to 165. I'm using this week as my one freebie.
2/7- Bad to worse. Cannot run at all. Zero energy. The more pills I take, the worse I feel. Only a detox can save me now. If that fails, it's over.
If this does work, I'm detoxing every 3 months. Perhaps if I had done so in November, I may not have had so many problems since.
2/8- AM- The detox appears to have been successful. Lots of green and tan stones. Whether or not I will be able to tolerate the needed pills still remains to be seen.
PM- 1 mile junk run. Got progressively better after taking more pills. Dropped 12 pounds in 2 days after the detox.
Distance= 16.0/ YTD: 188
Monday, January 26, 2015
Training 1/26-2/1
1/26- AM. Just wanted to see how I felt after the quality 13 yesterday. Unfortunately, I felt too good and cruised 2 miles in 13:40 (6:50 pace).
PM- Soreness is beginning to kick in a bit. Easy 6 in 44-flat (7:20 pace). Slipped a bit in the 2nd half (21:48-22:12) but that was by design after a too fast first 2 miles. Good job. A bit sore in the foot and shins despite taking plenty of Mag. Added a cool down tribute.
Grade:A-/1 credit/distance=8.5
1/27- Another 6 miler at Gold's in 43:54 (7:19 pace). This one was more comfortable than yesterday. I set the cruise control to 7:20 and just let the engine run. Each mile was between 7:16-7:21. STRONG! Still a little sore in shins but not concerned yet.
Grade:A/1 credit/distance=6.0
1/28- AM- Lakeshore 5 plus a warm and cool. It seems that the group's pace is never right for me. It's either above 8 or below 7. Today, it was below 7 and I wisely let them go. GPS did not cut on until 1.5 miles in and did the last 3.5 @ 7:24 pace and I figure that the overall average was around 7:30. Not a bad run but I was clearly feeling the ill-effects of over-reaching. Again, I repeat to my readers: How do I know the difference between over-reaching and chemical issues? It's a very "different tiredness" When I over-reach, I feel dazed and dreamy. When there's chemical issues, I am lethargic and depressed.
PM- No running until tomorrow evening. I hope to be sufficiently recovered for a moderate interval session.
Grade:B/1 credit/distance=5.5
1/29- 400s at Pelham with a 2 minute jog recovery. Did 8 reps in sets of 4 then allowed myself a full recovery then ran #9 all out. 1st 4 were all 81s, 2nd 4 were all 80s. #9 was a solid 74.0. Decent performance. I'll be lenient on my first interval workout of the season. I expect to be better next time. If I had run 4 consecutive laps, I predict a time in the mid-high 5:30s so I've got a ways to go to get where I want to be. Legs did not have much spring and power but I was not fully fresh. In good position to win.
Grade:B+/2 credit/distance=4.0
1/30- Planned rest day. Bad reaction to the liver last night. I hope it will clear by tomorrow. I will try one more time next week then I'm done with it until further notice.
1/31- Liver pill has NOT cleared. That does it. I'm done with that stuff until further notice. Managed 5 miles and my time was so slow that I didn't even want to know. Got dropped by the group in Mile 2 and held it together for another Mile then died.
Grade:D+/1 credit/distance=5.0
2/1- Meltdown #3 on the year. 1 Mile on Lakeshore in 9:37. Tried ADHS and needless to say, it was a failure.
PM- 2 miles at Gold's in 17:30 (8:45 pace). Not much better but it is a step in the right direction.
Grade:F/2 credits/distance=3.0
Weekly summary:
Until further notice, I done with the liver pill. I still don't know why I am so intolerant to it. A detox may help but it's too risky with race season just 3 weeks away so I will hold off. A Cp value in the 23s is not too bad. I think I will go back to whole food C in an effort to reduce the zinc/copper sensitivity. I'll have to take it in the evening because it can give me GI distress on the run. I've go to focus on getting my tissue Na down. It's probably about 100 now and if I am consistent with the Thym-Adren, it will be near 70 by the end of the month.
Distance= 32.0/ GPA= 18.6/8= 2.29
YTD: 170 miles. Record: 1-3 with a 2.65 GPA.
PM- Soreness is beginning to kick in a bit. Easy 6 in 44-flat (7:20 pace). Slipped a bit in the 2nd half (21:48-22:12) but that was by design after a too fast first 2 miles. Good job. A bit sore in the foot and shins despite taking plenty of Mag. Added a cool down tribute.
Grade:A-/1 credit/distance=8.5
1/27- Another 6 miler at Gold's in 43:54 (7:19 pace). This one was more comfortable than yesterday. I set the cruise control to 7:20 and just let the engine run. Each mile was between 7:16-7:21. STRONG! Still a little sore in shins but not concerned yet.
Grade:A/1 credit/distance=6.0
1/28- AM- Lakeshore 5 plus a warm and cool. It seems that the group's pace is never right for me. It's either above 8 or below 7. Today, it was below 7 and I wisely let them go. GPS did not cut on until 1.5 miles in and did the last 3.5 @ 7:24 pace and I figure that the overall average was around 7:30. Not a bad run but I was clearly feeling the ill-effects of over-reaching. Again, I repeat to my readers: How do I know the difference between over-reaching and chemical issues? It's a very "different tiredness" When I over-reach, I feel dazed and dreamy. When there's chemical issues, I am lethargic and depressed.
PM- No running until tomorrow evening. I hope to be sufficiently recovered for a moderate interval session.
Grade:B/1 credit/distance=5.5
1/29- 400s at Pelham with a 2 minute jog recovery. Did 8 reps in sets of 4 then allowed myself a full recovery then ran #9 all out. 1st 4 were all 81s, 2nd 4 were all 80s. #9 was a solid 74.0. Decent performance. I'll be lenient on my first interval workout of the season. I expect to be better next time. If I had run 4 consecutive laps, I predict a time in the mid-high 5:30s so I've got a ways to go to get where I want to be. Legs did not have much spring and power but I was not fully fresh. In good position to win.
Grade:B+/2 credit/distance=4.0
1/30- Planned rest day. Bad reaction to the liver last night. I hope it will clear by tomorrow. I will try one more time next week then I'm done with it until further notice.
1/31- Liver pill has NOT cleared. That does it. I'm done with that stuff until further notice. Managed 5 miles and my time was so slow that I didn't even want to know. Got dropped by the group in Mile 2 and held it together for another Mile then died.
Grade:D+/1 credit/distance=5.0
2/1- Meltdown #3 on the year. 1 Mile on Lakeshore in 9:37. Tried ADHS and needless to say, it was a failure.
PM- 2 miles at Gold's in 17:30 (8:45 pace). Not much better but it is a step in the right direction.
Grade:F/2 credits/distance=3.0
Weekly summary:
Until further notice, I done with the liver pill. I still don't know why I am so intolerant to it. A detox may help but it's too risky with race season just 3 weeks away so I will hold off. A Cp value in the 23s is not too bad. I think I will go back to whole food C in an effort to reduce the zinc/copper sensitivity. I'll have to take it in the evening because it can give me GI distress on the run. I've go to focus on getting my tissue Na down. It's probably about 100 now and if I am consistent with the Thym-Adren, it will be near 70 by the end of the month.
Distance= 32.0/ GPA= 18.6/8= 2.29
YTD: 170 miles. Record: 1-3 with a 2.65 GPA.
Sunday, January 18, 2015
Training 1/19-1/25
Preview:
After the flip in symptoms, I expect to take a bit of a step back this week. I want to test the Liver Beef and hope to get a quick NO and not have to worry about it more than once per week. I am undecided on another detox. The weather should improve soon so I hope to start interval work this week. I may or may not do a time trial.
1/19- MLK Daylight run. I still don't know why anyone would want to run in the cold and dark when they don't have to. Did the standard 9 mile Trak Shak loop + S. Lakeshore extension for 10 miles in 74:54 (7:29 pace). Solid but unspectacular. Slight fade in Mile 8-9 but did rally at the end to secure the sub-7:30 overall.
Grade:B+/2 credit/distance=10.0
Update: Took a liver pill and got an immediate negative reaction. That's good news I suppose. If I have to take a day off tomorrow, so be it. Also, I am dropping the Vitamin C from the formula because I don't feel it is helping. If I have trouble with zinc hereafter, that changes things.
1/20- AM- The liver hasn't cleared yet so it was meltdown #2 on the year. Quit after 1 Mile in 8:55. The only good news is that I was better with zinc (4:36-4:19) plus a cool.
PM- Beginning to feel better. Lakeshore 2.5 in 20:45 (8:18 pace). I should be back to the new normal by tomorrow evening. Liver + Thym-Adren is a NO! With ADHS, it might be better. If that doesn't work, I'm done with it until further notice. My ceruloplasmin is not bad. Tissue sodium is. I'll count this as my rest day but no more freebies this week.
Grade:None/distance= 4.0
1/21- AM. Lame 3 miler at Gold's in 23:27 (7:49 pace). An incremental improvement over yesterday but the recovery is slow. May or may not run this evening. I've decided to do a mini-detox this weekend and if I still cannot tolerate the liver, I'm done with it indefinitely.
PM- Did not run. I have learned that zinc and Whole Food C must be eliminated. That's right. The same stuff that made me feel better yesterday no longer works. My system is working completely differently now. It's back to the Cal/Mag + Thym-Adren. If I hit another roadblock, it's over.
Grade:C-/1 credit/distance=3.0
1/22- System apparently has yet to clear. Slightly worse than yesterday. 3 miles in 23:56 (7:59 pace) with a pretty nasty fade at the end.
Grade:D+/1 credit/distance=3.0
1/23- Marginally better. 3 miles in 22:41 (7:34 pace) with even splits. Feeling the full effects of moderate-severe thyroid and adrenal over-activity.
Grade:C/1 credit/distance=3.5
1/24- Lakeshore 5 in 36:15 (7:15 pace). Slipped a bit on the back half (17:58-18:17) but this is a significant change from yesterday. I've decided to wait on the detox until Spring. The number one priority is the tissue sodium not the copper.
Grade:B/1 credit/distance=5.4
1/25- Mercedes half course trial run in a solid 1:35:44 (7:18 pace) with pretty even splits. Yes, I was pushing it but not racing all out. I may have found someone who matches my pace too. I ran the last 8 miles with a guy named Ian, who could be a new running buddy. If I was racing this course all out, I think my time would have been in the low 1:34s so this was encouraging. Still taking mega Thym-Adren and improving rapidly.
Grade:A-/2 credit/distance=13.1
Weekly summary:
Strong finish to the week was not enough to overcome early stumbles. I hope to get back to the winning track next week.
Distance= 42.0/ GPA= 22.0/8= 2.75
YTD: 140 miles. Record: 1-2 with a 2.77 GPA
After the flip in symptoms, I expect to take a bit of a step back this week. I want to test the Liver Beef and hope to get a quick NO and not have to worry about it more than once per week. I am undecided on another detox. The weather should improve soon so I hope to start interval work this week. I may or may not do a time trial.
1/19- MLK Daylight run. I still don't know why anyone would want to run in the cold and dark when they don't have to. Did the standard 9 mile Trak Shak loop + S. Lakeshore extension for 10 miles in 74:54 (7:29 pace). Solid but unspectacular. Slight fade in Mile 8-9 but did rally at the end to secure the sub-7:30 overall.
Grade:B+/2 credit/distance=10.0
Update: Took a liver pill and got an immediate negative reaction. That's good news I suppose. If I have to take a day off tomorrow, so be it. Also, I am dropping the Vitamin C from the formula because I don't feel it is helping. If I have trouble with zinc hereafter, that changes things.
1/20- AM- The liver hasn't cleared yet so it was meltdown #2 on the year. Quit after 1 Mile in 8:55. The only good news is that I was better with zinc (4:36-4:19) plus a cool.
PM- Beginning to feel better. Lakeshore 2.5 in 20:45 (8:18 pace). I should be back to the new normal by tomorrow evening. Liver + Thym-Adren is a NO! With ADHS, it might be better. If that doesn't work, I'm done with it until further notice. My ceruloplasmin is not bad. Tissue sodium is. I'll count this as my rest day but no more freebies this week.
Grade:None/distance= 4.0
1/21- AM. Lame 3 miler at Gold's in 23:27 (7:49 pace). An incremental improvement over yesterday but the recovery is slow. May or may not run this evening. I've decided to do a mini-detox this weekend and if I still cannot tolerate the liver, I'm done with it indefinitely.
PM- Did not run. I have learned that zinc and Whole Food C must be eliminated. That's right. The same stuff that made me feel better yesterday no longer works. My system is working completely differently now. It's back to the Cal/Mag + Thym-Adren. If I hit another roadblock, it's over.
Grade:C-/1 credit/distance=3.0
1/22- System apparently has yet to clear. Slightly worse than yesterday. 3 miles in 23:56 (7:59 pace) with a pretty nasty fade at the end.
Grade:D+/1 credit/distance=3.0
1/23- Marginally better. 3 miles in 22:41 (7:34 pace) with even splits. Feeling the full effects of moderate-severe thyroid and adrenal over-activity.
Grade:C/1 credit/distance=3.5
1/24- Lakeshore 5 in 36:15 (7:15 pace). Slipped a bit on the back half (17:58-18:17) but this is a significant change from yesterday. I've decided to wait on the detox until Spring. The number one priority is the tissue sodium not the copper.
Grade:B/1 credit/distance=5.4
1/25- Mercedes half course trial run in a solid 1:35:44 (7:18 pace) with pretty even splits. Yes, I was pushing it but not racing all out. I may have found someone who matches my pace too. I ran the last 8 miles with a guy named Ian, who could be a new running buddy. If I was racing this course all out, I think my time would have been in the low 1:34s so this was encouraging. Still taking mega Thym-Adren and improving rapidly.
Grade:A-/2 credit/distance=13.1
Weekly summary:
Strong finish to the week was not enough to overcome early stumbles. I hope to get back to the winning track next week.
Distance= 42.0/ GPA= 22.0/8= 2.75
YTD: 140 miles. Record: 1-2 with a 2.77 GPA
Saturday, January 17, 2015
HTMA test results
Raw numbers:
Calcium: 35 (good)
Magnesium: 5 (good)
Sodium: 111 (off the scale high)
Potassium: 21 (high)
Zinc: 14 (low)
Copper: 0.9 (very low)
Phosphorus: 14 (good)
Key ratios:
Blood sugar (Cal/Mag)= 35/5= 7.0
Ideal is 6.67 so this is near perfect and when you consider rounding issues with Mag, you really can't do much better. Even when I was running my best in 2012, this ratio was always very high with the Mag usually at 2. Big improvements and I'll just keep doing what I'm doing, which is a 1:1 Cal/Mag ratio and if I am to favor one, it's the Mag.
Thyroid (Ca/K)= 35/21= 1.67
Ideal here is 4 so I am significantly below ideal. In a hair test, a low ratio indicates an overactive thyroid. Mine is in the moderate range and a nice improvement over the last test (0.86) but still well short of where it needs to be. I'd like to see it at least 2.75 for symptoms to be minimal.
Adrenal (Na/Mg)= 111/5= 22.20
This has been the biggest thorn in my side. I just can't seem to get this one down. Ideal is 4 or 5 depending on the lab so that indicates that my adrenals are at least 4 times faster than ideal. Very displeased with that one but it was better than the 29.8 that I had last time.
Vitality: (Na/K)= 111/21= 5.28
The ideal here is 2.5 but even a 4 is considered to be good and it's MUCH better to be on the high side than the low side. With a number in this range, I will have tendency toward mild inflammation but that beats the hell out of adrenal exhaustion, which is what happens if it gets too low. This ratio is essentially unchanged from last time and I'm not too worried about it.
Zinc/Copper= 14/0.9= 15.58
This one is the most baffling of all. The liver pill contains lots of copper and little-no zinc and the blood test results show nice improvements in ceruloplasmin (bioavailable copper) yet the hair test shows that copper has tanked. What the ----?
Calcium/Phosphorus- 35/14= 2.50
This ratio indicates sympathetic/parasympathetic dominance. My ratio is a perfect 2.50. 100% just right. Neither sympathetic nor parasympathetic. I've leaned heavily towards sympathetic in the past so this is also a positive trend.
Toxic Metals:
Cadmium and aluminum were high on my last test. Both have dropped significantly. I'm actually a little concerned that they are too low because that may suggest poor elimination.
Overall impression:
The good news is that 4 out of 6 ratios improved significantly over last time with 1 unchanged while only the zinc/copper got worse. 2 ratios are either perfect or near perfect.
The bad news is that I am still a moderate-extreme fast oxidizer and I don't know why I had slow oxidation symptoms. Perhaps there was another ingredient in the Liver Beef that I just can't tolerate that was causing those symptoms. Vitamin A is a possible culprit.
The lesson that I have re-learned is that I need to be taking an adrenal suppressant regularly to have any chance of getting in balance. When I was on the Liver Beef, I could not tolerate it, which likely caused my Na to shoot up. I could not tolerate the adrenal suppressant either because of problems with copper and ceruloplasmin. Catch-22.
It is true that copper often reads low in fast oxidizers but mine was so low that it is worrisome and the very low toxic metals suggest poor elimination. I may need to do another detox but I don't know what impact that will have. I may force copper and/or cadmium out of my liver and into my tissues, causing more fatigue. I do know what to do about excess copper now so the elimination won't be as long or difficult this time around. Is there any chance that a detox will allow me to tolerate the Liver Beef? Another thought that I've had is that it really doesn't make sense for me to be a poor eliminator because the increased ceruloplasmin SHOULD be transporting copper out of my liver more effectively.
At the end of the day, this tells me that the Endodren is NOT the answer long-term and will lead to a collapse if I had kept taking it. I'm back to the Thym-Adren now but still don't know why I could not tolerate it when on the Liver Beef. In any event, next week, I'm going to go back to the Liver Beef for a few days just to see if it happens again. If it does, I'll be okay taking it once a week, which will not produce significant symptoms and will keep my ceruloplasmin near the healthy range. I AM NOT HAPPY!
EDIT:
I have lowered the tissue sodium and potassium before. In fact, it was all the down to 30/10 in early 2013 but I crashed because of my VERY low Magnesium and ceruloplasmin. I see no reason why I cannot maintain those levels. If I can get the Na back to 30, I'll have an adrenal ratio of 30/5= 6.00, which is in the healthy range. Do I have a path to good health now or will I hit another roadblock? I can't take another roadblock.
Calcium: 35 (good)
Magnesium: 5 (good)
Sodium: 111 (off the scale high)
Potassium: 21 (high)
Zinc: 14 (low)
Copper: 0.9 (very low)
Phosphorus: 14 (good)
Key ratios:
Blood sugar (Cal/Mag)= 35/5= 7.0
Ideal is 6.67 so this is near perfect and when you consider rounding issues with Mag, you really can't do much better. Even when I was running my best in 2012, this ratio was always very high with the Mag usually at 2. Big improvements and I'll just keep doing what I'm doing, which is a 1:1 Cal/Mag ratio and if I am to favor one, it's the Mag.
Thyroid (Ca/K)= 35/21= 1.67
Ideal here is 4 so I am significantly below ideal. In a hair test, a low ratio indicates an overactive thyroid. Mine is in the moderate range and a nice improvement over the last test (0.86) but still well short of where it needs to be. I'd like to see it at least 2.75 for symptoms to be minimal.
Adrenal (Na/Mg)= 111/5= 22.20
This has been the biggest thorn in my side. I just can't seem to get this one down. Ideal is 4 or 5 depending on the lab so that indicates that my adrenals are at least 4 times faster than ideal. Very displeased with that one but it was better than the 29.8 that I had last time.
Vitality: (Na/K)= 111/21= 5.28
The ideal here is 2.5 but even a 4 is considered to be good and it's MUCH better to be on the high side than the low side. With a number in this range, I will have tendency toward mild inflammation but that beats the hell out of adrenal exhaustion, which is what happens if it gets too low. This ratio is essentially unchanged from last time and I'm not too worried about it.
Zinc/Copper= 14/0.9= 15.58
This one is the most baffling of all. The liver pill contains lots of copper and little-no zinc and the blood test results show nice improvements in ceruloplasmin (bioavailable copper) yet the hair test shows that copper has tanked. What the ----?
Calcium/Phosphorus- 35/14= 2.50
This ratio indicates sympathetic/parasympathetic dominance. My ratio is a perfect 2.50. 100% just right. Neither sympathetic nor parasympathetic. I've leaned heavily towards sympathetic in the past so this is also a positive trend.
Toxic Metals:
Cadmium and aluminum were high on my last test. Both have dropped significantly. I'm actually a little concerned that they are too low because that may suggest poor elimination.
Overall impression:
The good news is that 4 out of 6 ratios improved significantly over last time with 1 unchanged while only the zinc/copper got worse. 2 ratios are either perfect or near perfect.
The bad news is that I am still a moderate-extreme fast oxidizer and I don't know why I had slow oxidation symptoms. Perhaps there was another ingredient in the Liver Beef that I just can't tolerate that was causing those symptoms. Vitamin A is a possible culprit.
The lesson that I have re-learned is that I need to be taking an adrenal suppressant regularly to have any chance of getting in balance. When I was on the Liver Beef, I could not tolerate it, which likely caused my Na to shoot up. I could not tolerate the adrenal suppressant either because of problems with copper and ceruloplasmin. Catch-22.
It is true that copper often reads low in fast oxidizers but mine was so low that it is worrisome and the very low toxic metals suggest poor elimination. I may need to do another detox but I don't know what impact that will have. I may force copper and/or cadmium out of my liver and into my tissues, causing more fatigue. I do know what to do about excess copper now so the elimination won't be as long or difficult this time around. Is there any chance that a detox will allow me to tolerate the Liver Beef? Another thought that I've had is that it really doesn't make sense for me to be a poor eliminator because the increased ceruloplasmin SHOULD be transporting copper out of my liver more effectively.
At the end of the day, this tells me that the Endodren is NOT the answer long-term and will lead to a collapse if I had kept taking it. I'm back to the Thym-Adren now but still don't know why I could not tolerate it when on the Liver Beef. In any event, next week, I'm going to go back to the Liver Beef for a few days just to see if it happens again. If it does, I'll be okay taking it once a week, which will not produce significant symptoms and will keep my ceruloplasmin near the healthy range. I AM NOT HAPPY!
EDIT:
I have lowered the tissue sodium and potassium before. In fact, it was all the down to 30/10 in early 2013 but I crashed because of my VERY low Magnesium and ceruloplasmin. I see no reason why I cannot maintain those levels. If I can get the Na back to 30, I'll have an adrenal ratio of 30/5= 6.00, which is in the healthy range. Do I have a path to good health now or will I hit another roadblock? I can't take another roadblock.
Thursday, January 15, 2015
Sabermetrics and Overrated players
Here comes another baseball post continuing the theme of the Hall of Fame vote. Here are the 5 most overrated players who career ended after 1985. While almost all of these players deserving of enshrinement, they are often considered to be among the best of all time which is not the case. Here's the list in no particular order:
Ozzie Smith- Arguably the best defensive player of all time at any position and was threat to steal on the basepaths but was a .260 hitter with very little power and finished with a career OPS+ of 87. Smith was a first ballot Hall of Famer with over 90% of the vote. By comparison, Barry Larkin had a 116 OPS+ and it took 3 ballots for him to get in. Larkin was also a plus defender who could steal bases. Yes, I would have voted for Smith but if he could not hit .250, my vote changes.
Pete Rose- The hit king needed nearly 14,000 ABs to break the record and finished with a career slash line of .303/.375/.409 for an OPS of .784 (118 OPS+). Those are good numbers but over a shorter career, they would not scream Hall of Fame. By comparison, Mark Grace had a slash line of .303/.383/.442 and was 1 and done because he only had 8,000 ABs. Rose hit a total of 2 home runs over his last 4 years while hitting about .260 and was NOT a great fielder either. Although there is no evidence that he fixed games, he certainly could have saved key players for games in which he had bet money. His numbers are good enough but I would NOT vote him into the HOF if he was eligible.
Cal Ripken Jr.- I may take some heat for this one but here it is. No doubt Ripken is a 1st ballot HOF and probably the best at his position in his era but a notch below the best of all time. Compiled over 3,000 hits and 400 HRs but it took him over 11,000 ABs. Finished with a slash line of .276/.340/.447 for a 112 OPS+, which is only 2 point above Alan Trammell, who won't make the HOF and 4 points below Larkin.
Nolan Ryan- It pains me to say it because he was one of my favorites growing up. Granted, he played for some mediocre teams but his winning percentage was only .526, which projects to an ordinary 85-77 over 162 games. His biggest weakness was his walk rate of 4.7/9. He was also a poor fielder who allowed a lot of steals. Tommy John didn't make the HOF and Blyleven barely did largely because of their high loss totals but that didn't hurt Ryan in the eyes of voters. Yes, he is a 1st ballot HOFer but among his contemporaries, Tom Seaver was better and so was Steve Carlton.
Bruce Sutter- This is one that I do not think belongs in the HOF. Finished his 12 year career with 300 saves, a 2.84 ERA but a strong 1.14 WHIP. By comparison, Jeff Reardon finished with 367 saves, a 1.19 WHIP and a 3.16 ERA and was 1 and done. I'd like to see a WHIP below 1.10 with an ERA around 2.50 to get in as a closer because they pitch so few innings.
Traditionally, players were evaluated on batting average, home runs and RBIs but this has shifted to On-base percentage, slugging and WAR (wins above replacement). I agree and disagree with the new evaluations.
On-base vs batting average:
While there is a place for both on every team, I personally value batting average a bit more. A walk is as good as a hit only if the bases are empty. A single can drive in runners on 2nd and 3rd while a walk will load the bases and give the pitcher another chance to get out of the jam.
Slugging vs Home runs and RBI:
This is a case in which I do agree with the new methods. Doubles power is very under-valued because it can clear the bases and put you in position to score on a single. Given the choice between a 30 HR player who only hits 20 2B or a 20 HR player with 40 2B, I would prefer the latter if everything else is equal.
I am not a fan of WAR evaluations because I feel it's too subjective. In particular, what defines a "replacement" level player? It's usually about the 28th best at each position. When voting for the HOF, it kills clean players from the steroid era.
In terms of pitchers, I still value won/loss record and ERA above K-rate and FIP.
In my opinion, strikeouts are overvalued and a weak pop fly is just as effective because it will not advance any runners. A pitcher who induces a lot of ground balls will get more double plays. FIP (fielding independent pitching) only takes into account walks, home runs, strike outs and hit batters figuring that pitchers cannot control the outcome of balls in play. I disagree. I value pitchers who pitch to contact and induces a lot of weakly hit balls in play. Hitters who faced Greg Maddux reported that they had calm and comfortable at-bats but at the end of the day, they didn't have any hits.
As for the Hall of Fame, I will always vote for a player with 3,000 hits legitimately but if you can't hit .250, I vote NO even if you have over 500 HRs. If you're a little short of the milestones, I may vote YES if a player has an outstanding slash line. For pitchers, I say 275 wins is the new 300. If you are short, you need a high winning percentage and low ERA.
Back to running and health posts from now on.
Ozzie Smith- Arguably the best defensive player of all time at any position and was threat to steal on the basepaths but was a .260 hitter with very little power and finished with a career OPS+ of 87. Smith was a first ballot Hall of Famer with over 90% of the vote. By comparison, Barry Larkin had a 116 OPS+ and it took 3 ballots for him to get in. Larkin was also a plus defender who could steal bases. Yes, I would have voted for Smith but if he could not hit .250, my vote changes.
Pete Rose- The hit king needed nearly 14,000 ABs to break the record and finished with a career slash line of .303/.375/.409 for an OPS of .784 (118 OPS+). Those are good numbers but over a shorter career, they would not scream Hall of Fame. By comparison, Mark Grace had a slash line of .303/.383/.442 and was 1 and done because he only had 8,000 ABs. Rose hit a total of 2 home runs over his last 4 years while hitting about .260 and was NOT a great fielder either. Although there is no evidence that he fixed games, he certainly could have saved key players for games in which he had bet money. His numbers are good enough but I would NOT vote him into the HOF if he was eligible.
Cal Ripken Jr.- I may take some heat for this one but here it is. No doubt Ripken is a 1st ballot HOF and probably the best at his position in his era but a notch below the best of all time. Compiled over 3,000 hits and 400 HRs but it took him over 11,000 ABs. Finished with a slash line of .276/.340/.447 for a 112 OPS+, which is only 2 point above Alan Trammell, who won't make the HOF and 4 points below Larkin.
Nolan Ryan- It pains me to say it because he was one of my favorites growing up. Granted, he played for some mediocre teams but his winning percentage was only .526, which projects to an ordinary 85-77 over 162 games. His biggest weakness was his walk rate of 4.7/9. He was also a poor fielder who allowed a lot of steals. Tommy John didn't make the HOF and Blyleven barely did largely because of their high loss totals but that didn't hurt Ryan in the eyes of voters. Yes, he is a 1st ballot HOFer but among his contemporaries, Tom Seaver was better and so was Steve Carlton.
Bruce Sutter- This is one that I do not think belongs in the HOF. Finished his 12 year career with 300 saves, a 2.84 ERA but a strong 1.14 WHIP. By comparison, Jeff Reardon finished with 367 saves, a 1.19 WHIP and a 3.16 ERA and was 1 and done. I'd like to see a WHIP below 1.10 with an ERA around 2.50 to get in as a closer because they pitch so few innings.
Traditionally, players were evaluated on batting average, home runs and RBIs but this has shifted to On-base percentage, slugging and WAR (wins above replacement). I agree and disagree with the new evaluations.
On-base vs batting average:
While there is a place for both on every team, I personally value batting average a bit more. A walk is as good as a hit only if the bases are empty. A single can drive in runners on 2nd and 3rd while a walk will load the bases and give the pitcher another chance to get out of the jam.
Slugging vs Home runs and RBI:
This is a case in which I do agree with the new methods. Doubles power is very under-valued because it can clear the bases and put you in position to score on a single. Given the choice between a 30 HR player who only hits 20 2B or a 20 HR player with 40 2B, I would prefer the latter if everything else is equal.
I am not a fan of WAR evaluations because I feel it's too subjective. In particular, what defines a "replacement" level player? It's usually about the 28th best at each position. When voting for the HOF, it kills clean players from the steroid era.
In terms of pitchers, I still value won/loss record and ERA above K-rate and FIP.
In my opinion, strikeouts are overvalued and a weak pop fly is just as effective because it will not advance any runners. A pitcher who induces a lot of ground balls will get more double plays. FIP (fielding independent pitching) only takes into account walks, home runs, strike outs and hit batters figuring that pitchers cannot control the outcome of balls in play. I disagree. I value pitchers who pitch to contact and induces a lot of weakly hit balls in play. Hitters who faced Greg Maddux reported that they had calm and comfortable at-bats but at the end of the day, they didn't have any hits.
As for the Hall of Fame, I will always vote for a player with 3,000 hits legitimately but if you can't hit .250, I vote NO even if you have over 500 HRs. If you're a little short of the milestones, I may vote YES if a player has an outstanding slash line. For pitchers, I say 275 wins is the new 300. If you are short, you need a high winning percentage and low ERA.
Back to running and health posts from now on.
Sunday, January 11, 2015
Training 1/12-1/18
Preview:
I did take a liver pill after my run on Sunday. I am noticeably more sluggish but it's not an extreme reaction and I hope that it will clear by tomorrow. I'll be shooting for 35-40 miles with a 12-13 mile long run. I don't think I'll have time for both a 5K and Mile time trial but I want to see a sub-21 5K and a Mile near 5:45. No slower than 5:50. Surprisingly, the Endodren arrived and I hope to see further improvements as a result. Most importantly, I want to see slow oxidation on the HTMA.
1/12- First day on the Endodren and felt a definite increase in energy but progress continues to be steady. 5K time trial in 20:45 (6:40 pace). Splits were 6:34-6:44-6:44-43. 33 ticks better than last week but still a long way from a PR. Again, I do NOT want to get it all back only to lose it again. If I can drop 11 in a Mile time trial, I'll be quite pleased. I won't consider myself "back" until I am CONSISTENTLY under 20 and 5:30. I think I can get there before racing season.
In other news, the HTMA is in the mail. No matter what it says, I am feeling better.
Grade:B/2 credits/distance=3.5
1/13- I thought it was going to be a downer today when I woke up but not so. A couple interesting observations. I've had a toothache off and on, which goes away whenever I favor Magnesium over Calcium. I had nasty dandruff this morning and yes, I showered when I woke up but popped a zinc pill at lunchtime and it was almost gone. Those who know about mineral balance would not be surprised by either development. My normally oily hair and skin has become dry, which is another sign of slow oxidation.
Easy 6 in 44:46 (7:28 pace) with even splits of 22:20-22:26. Nice job. Felt much like my old self. Very smooth and relaxed.
Grade:A/1 credit/distance=6.0
1/14- AM- Group run. Easy 5 on Lakeshore in a time of 39:09 (7:50 pace). Not a bad workout but something felt a little off. I may be back out there this evening.
PM- The Cal/Mag balance was a little off but thanks to the taurine, I won't be horrible if the formula is off. Took a Cal pill and recovered the form from yesterday. Easy 5 in 37:11 (7:26 pace). Even pace with splits of 18:32-18:39. I'll take it.
Grade:B+/2 credit/distance=10.5
1/15- Planned rest day. I hope to do a Mile time trial tomorrow but that could be rough in cold weather.
PM- The HTMA results were supposedly mailed on Tuesday but I've yet to receive them. Tomorrow for sure or I'll call the office. The Mile will have to be run in either sub-freezing conditions outdoors or on a 9 lap indoor track with tight turns. Either way, I'm not expecting a great time but I've already made the goal in the 5K this week.
1/16- AM. Indoor Mile in 5:48-flat. I'll take it. Put me out there on a good track in decent weather and I'm sure I would have been sub-5:45. Splits were 1:55-1:59-1:54.
PM- Lakeshore 5 in pleasant conditions. Finished an evenly paced 5 miles in 37:16 (7:27 pace) with splits of 18:35-18:41. Got home to find not so good news in the mail. My HTMA looks better than last time but I remain a very fast oxidizer. More to come.
Grade:B+/2 credit/distance=7.0
1/17- BTC group run. I'm stuck in the middle. Too fast for the 8:00 pace group but not fast enough to stick with the sub-3 group. Today was my longest run since Tulsa nearly 2 months ago. Finished 13 miles in 1:41:38 (7:48 pace). I was doing well through about 10.5 miles then I hit the wall and it was brutal going up the hill that sucks at the end. Overall, I'll take it. I have switched back to the Thym-Adren in light of my HTMA results and the transition seems to be going without a hitch. Need a "C minus" tomorrow for a win.
Grade:B-/2 credit/distance=13.0
1/18- Resolute run. Called it quits at 4.5 miles in 35:23 (7:52 pace) then tacked on a 5 minute cool. Really struggled on the back half but it was mostly uphill. Sore legs and stiff joints this morning plus bad dandruff are all signs that more zinc is needed. Took some later in the day and seemed to get better. I'm not going to worry about my hair zinc/copper ratio. Everything else suggests that I need more zinc. Zinc is key to lowering the high Na/K ratio. I could not tolerate it before but now I can, which is good news.
PM- Moderate Mile on Wisteria. Felt much better.
Grade:C+/1 credit/distance=6.0
Weekly summary:
Good enough to snap a 7 week losing streak and I did show progress but my symptoms have flipped back to what they should be. Next week could be rough.
Distance= 46.0/ GPA= 30.9/10= 3.09
YTD: 98 miles. 1-1 with a 2.78 GPA
I did take a liver pill after my run on Sunday. I am noticeably more sluggish but it's not an extreme reaction and I hope that it will clear by tomorrow. I'll be shooting for 35-40 miles with a 12-13 mile long run. I don't think I'll have time for both a 5K and Mile time trial but I want to see a sub-21 5K and a Mile near 5:45. No slower than 5:50. Surprisingly, the Endodren arrived and I hope to see further improvements as a result. Most importantly, I want to see slow oxidation on the HTMA.
1/12- First day on the Endodren and felt a definite increase in energy but progress continues to be steady. 5K time trial in 20:45 (6:40 pace). Splits were 6:34-6:44-6:44-43. 33 ticks better than last week but still a long way from a PR. Again, I do NOT want to get it all back only to lose it again. If I can drop 11 in a Mile time trial, I'll be quite pleased. I won't consider myself "back" until I am CONSISTENTLY under 20 and 5:30. I think I can get there before racing season.
In other news, the HTMA is in the mail. No matter what it says, I am feeling better.
Grade:B/2 credits/distance=3.5
1/13- I thought it was going to be a downer today when I woke up but not so. A couple interesting observations. I've had a toothache off and on, which goes away whenever I favor Magnesium over Calcium. I had nasty dandruff this morning and yes, I showered when I woke up but popped a zinc pill at lunchtime and it was almost gone. Those who know about mineral balance would not be surprised by either development. My normally oily hair and skin has become dry, which is another sign of slow oxidation.
Easy 6 in 44:46 (7:28 pace) with even splits of 22:20-22:26. Nice job. Felt much like my old self. Very smooth and relaxed.
Grade:A/1 credit/distance=6.0
1/14- AM- Group run. Easy 5 on Lakeshore in a time of 39:09 (7:50 pace). Not a bad workout but something felt a little off. I may be back out there this evening.
PM- The Cal/Mag balance was a little off but thanks to the taurine, I won't be horrible if the formula is off. Took a Cal pill and recovered the form from yesterday. Easy 5 in 37:11 (7:26 pace). Even pace with splits of 18:32-18:39. I'll take it.
Grade:B+/2 credit/distance=10.5
1/15- Planned rest day. I hope to do a Mile time trial tomorrow but that could be rough in cold weather.
PM- The HTMA results were supposedly mailed on Tuesday but I've yet to receive them. Tomorrow for sure or I'll call the office. The Mile will have to be run in either sub-freezing conditions outdoors or on a 9 lap indoor track with tight turns. Either way, I'm not expecting a great time but I've already made the goal in the 5K this week.
1/16- AM. Indoor Mile in 5:48-flat. I'll take it. Put me out there on a good track in decent weather and I'm sure I would have been sub-5:45. Splits were 1:55-1:59-1:54.
PM- Lakeshore 5 in pleasant conditions. Finished an evenly paced 5 miles in 37:16 (7:27 pace) with splits of 18:35-18:41. Got home to find not so good news in the mail. My HTMA looks better than last time but I remain a very fast oxidizer. More to come.
Grade:B+/2 credit/distance=7.0
1/17- BTC group run. I'm stuck in the middle. Too fast for the 8:00 pace group but not fast enough to stick with the sub-3 group. Today was my longest run since Tulsa nearly 2 months ago. Finished 13 miles in 1:41:38 (7:48 pace). I was doing well through about 10.5 miles then I hit the wall and it was brutal going up the hill that sucks at the end. Overall, I'll take it. I have switched back to the Thym-Adren in light of my HTMA results and the transition seems to be going without a hitch. Need a "C minus" tomorrow for a win.
Grade:B-/2 credit/distance=13.0
1/18- Resolute run. Called it quits at 4.5 miles in 35:23 (7:52 pace) then tacked on a 5 minute cool. Really struggled on the back half but it was mostly uphill. Sore legs and stiff joints this morning plus bad dandruff are all signs that more zinc is needed. Took some later in the day and seemed to get better. I'm not going to worry about my hair zinc/copper ratio. Everything else suggests that I need more zinc. Zinc is key to lowering the high Na/K ratio. I could not tolerate it before but now I can, which is good news.
PM- Moderate Mile on Wisteria. Felt much better.
Grade:C+/1 credit/distance=6.0
Weekly summary:
Good enough to snap a 7 week losing streak and I did show progress but my symptoms have flipped back to what they should be. Next week could be rough.
Distance= 46.0/ GPA= 30.9/10= 3.09
YTD: 98 miles. 1-1 with a 2.78 GPA
Wednesday, January 7, 2015
2015 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot
I did a few posts on this subject 2 years ago and I feel pretty much the same now.
In order to get in, you need 1 of 2 things:
1- An exceptionally high peak in which you were among the best in the game for 7-8 years before tailing off and having your career cut short due to injury
2- Longevity. You play at a high level for 16-20 years with a good but not exceptional peak and when your career is done, you have the key milestones such as 3,000 hits, 500 HRs and 275 wins.
Look back to my early 2013 posts for more on this subject but on this post, I'll just deal with the 2015 ballot here. I don't think that every player that's ever been inducted is deserving but I do agree with all 4 choices this time around.
Randy Johnson- YES. No brainer.
Pedro Martinez- YES. Clear example of case #1
Craig Biggio- YES. Clear example of case #2
John Smoltz- YES. I wasn't sure he'd get in on the 1st ballot but I'm glad he did. His dominance as both a starter and a closer seals the deal.
Now, the ones that did not make it:
Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza- I've been on the fence about these 2 for a long time. Both have the numbers but are suspected PED users. Both have admitted to using Andro, a pre-cursor to testosterone, which was not illegal but may have been a cover for harder drugs as was the case with McGwire. Bagwell dropped off after testing began but was hampered by a back injury the ultimately ended his career. Piazza also dropped off but that's common for a Catcher in his mid-30s and his numbers remained respectable until a mediocre final season at 36. Neither tested positive nor were they listed in the Mitchell report. Innocent until proven guilty. I've got to say YES.
Tim Raines- NO. Had an excellent peak but was only superstar caliber for 5 years and really only had 1 more great year after the age of 30. Hung on until age 41 but was a platoon player over the last 4-5 years. If he had 2 more MVP type seasons or compiled another 300 hits, he's in but as it is, he's short. By comparison, his offensive numbers are only slightly better than Kenny Lofton who was one and done. Lofton was also the better defensive player of the two.
Curt Schilling- NO. Several outstanding seasons and was sensational in the post-season but simply lacked the durability and consistency. In 20 years in MLB, he only made 25+ starts 10 times and had a few downright ugly seasons. He's another player that needed another 2 great years or stayed healthy enough to compile another 35-40 wins. Numbers are similar to HOFer Don Drysdale, who I don't think belongs for the same reasons. A more contemporary comparison is Kevin Brown, who was one and done.
Bonds and Clemens- NO. Unlike McGwire and Sosa, these 2 have a case because they were not dopers for their entire careers and were close to HOF level before they started. Had they simply hung on as "average" players for another 4 years, they'd be no brainers but as it is, I'm adamant about no cheaters in the HOF. Remember the character, integrity, sportsmanship clause. For the record, I would have also voted against spitball pitcher Gaylord Perry as well.
Mike Mussina- YES. I'm puzzled as to why he hasn't gotten more support. 270 wins and a very high winning percentage in an era with few complete games. ERA is a bit high but inflated by pitching in the steroid era and the offensive heavy AL East. Jack Morris got as high as 67% and Moose's numbers are superior in every category. I think he'll see a rise in coming votes.
Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker- NO. These 2 have interesting cases and I could change my mind especially about Martinez. In terms of milestones, both are well short of 500 HR and 3,000 hits but really shine in terms of BA/OBP/SLUG. However, at the end of the day, neither had a peak impressive enough for a YES after such a short career. Once again, 5 top 10 MVP seasons is usually not enough. You need 7. Both had less than 7,500 ABs and if they had maintained the same production over another 2,000 ABs, it's a different story.
Jeff Kent- YES. One of the best offensive 2B in history. Ryne Sandberg got in on his 3rd try and Kent is far superior offensively. Finished with an even .500 slugging and 377 HRs despite not reaching MLB until age 24. With 400 HRs, he's in for sure but the voters may not agree.
Fred McGriff- YES. I feel pretty strongly about his case. Robbed of 500 HRs by the players strike and was overshadowed by cheaters such as McGwire, Palmeiro and Giambi at his position. Class act and deserving in my book.
Gary Sheffield- NO. Connected to steroids through the BALCO scandal. Did not like him when he played because he made numerous racially charged statements throughout his career. 509 HRs with a solid BA and over 2500 hits would be enough without the steroids.
McGwire and Sosa- Hell NO!
Garciaparra- NO. As is the case all too often, a short career with only a few outstanding seasons.
Lee Smith- NO. When evaluating closers, I'm not overly impressed with the number of saves. I want to see "lights out" domination because the inning total is so low. I'd like to see a career ERA south of 2.50 and a WHIP close to 1.00. Smith falls well short. I would vote YES on Mariano Rivera and Billy Wagner and leaning towards YES on Trevor Hoffman.
Carlos Delgado- NO. While I don't think he's HOF material, I would have liked to have seen him get a longer look. 473 HR total despite an early retirement due to injuries. 30+ HR for 10 straight seasons with no drop off after steroid testing and he's one and done. That's harsh.
Alan Trammell- NO. Well short of Barry Larkin's numbers. A very good but not great career.
In order to get in, you need 1 of 2 things:
1- An exceptionally high peak in which you were among the best in the game for 7-8 years before tailing off and having your career cut short due to injury
2- Longevity. You play at a high level for 16-20 years with a good but not exceptional peak and when your career is done, you have the key milestones such as 3,000 hits, 500 HRs and 275 wins.
Look back to my early 2013 posts for more on this subject but on this post, I'll just deal with the 2015 ballot here. I don't think that every player that's ever been inducted is deserving but I do agree with all 4 choices this time around.
Randy Johnson- YES. No brainer.
Pedro Martinez- YES. Clear example of case #1
Craig Biggio- YES. Clear example of case #2
John Smoltz- YES. I wasn't sure he'd get in on the 1st ballot but I'm glad he did. His dominance as both a starter and a closer seals the deal.
Now, the ones that did not make it:
Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza- I've been on the fence about these 2 for a long time. Both have the numbers but are suspected PED users. Both have admitted to using Andro, a pre-cursor to testosterone, which was not illegal but may have been a cover for harder drugs as was the case with McGwire. Bagwell dropped off after testing began but was hampered by a back injury the ultimately ended his career. Piazza also dropped off but that's common for a Catcher in his mid-30s and his numbers remained respectable until a mediocre final season at 36. Neither tested positive nor were they listed in the Mitchell report. Innocent until proven guilty. I've got to say YES.
Tim Raines- NO. Had an excellent peak but was only superstar caliber for 5 years and really only had 1 more great year after the age of 30. Hung on until age 41 but was a platoon player over the last 4-5 years. If he had 2 more MVP type seasons or compiled another 300 hits, he's in but as it is, he's short. By comparison, his offensive numbers are only slightly better than Kenny Lofton who was one and done. Lofton was also the better defensive player of the two.
Curt Schilling- NO. Several outstanding seasons and was sensational in the post-season but simply lacked the durability and consistency. In 20 years in MLB, he only made 25+ starts 10 times and had a few downright ugly seasons. He's another player that needed another 2 great years or stayed healthy enough to compile another 35-40 wins. Numbers are similar to HOFer Don Drysdale, who I don't think belongs for the same reasons. A more contemporary comparison is Kevin Brown, who was one and done.
Bonds and Clemens- NO. Unlike McGwire and Sosa, these 2 have a case because they were not dopers for their entire careers and were close to HOF level before they started. Had they simply hung on as "average" players for another 4 years, they'd be no brainers but as it is, I'm adamant about no cheaters in the HOF. Remember the character, integrity, sportsmanship clause. For the record, I would have also voted against spitball pitcher Gaylord Perry as well.
Mike Mussina- YES. I'm puzzled as to why he hasn't gotten more support. 270 wins and a very high winning percentage in an era with few complete games. ERA is a bit high but inflated by pitching in the steroid era and the offensive heavy AL East. Jack Morris got as high as 67% and Moose's numbers are superior in every category. I think he'll see a rise in coming votes.
Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker- NO. These 2 have interesting cases and I could change my mind especially about Martinez. In terms of milestones, both are well short of 500 HR and 3,000 hits but really shine in terms of BA/OBP/SLUG. However, at the end of the day, neither had a peak impressive enough for a YES after such a short career. Once again, 5 top 10 MVP seasons is usually not enough. You need 7. Both had less than 7,500 ABs and if they had maintained the same production over another 2,000 ABs, it's a different story.
Jeff Kent- YES. One of the best offensive 2B in history. Ryne Sandberg got in on his 3rd try and Kent is far superior offensively. Finished with an even .500 slugging and 377 HRs despite not reaching MLB until age 24. With 400 HRs, he's in for sure but the voters may not agree.
Fred McGriff- YES. I feel pretty strongly about his case. Robbed of 500 HRs by the players strike and was overshadowed by cheaters such as McGwire, Palmeiro and Giambi at his position. Class act and deserving in my book.
Gary Sheffield- NO. Connected to steroids through the BALCO scandal. Did not like him when he played because he made numerous racially charged statements throughout his career. 509 HRs with a solid BA and over 2500 hits would be enough without the steroids.
McGwire and Sosa- Hell NO!
Garciaparra- NO. As is the case all too often, a short career with only a few outstanding seasons.
Lee Smith- NO. When evaluating closers, I'm not overly impressed with the number of saves. I want to see "lights out" domination because the inning total is so low. I'd like to see a career ERA south of 2.50 and a WHIP close to 1.00. Smith falls well short. I would vote YES on Mariano Rivera and Billy Wagner and leaning towards YES on Trevor Hoffman.
Carlos Delgado- NO. While I don't think he's HOF material, I would have liked to have seen him get a longer look. 473 HR total despite an early retirement due to injuries. 30+ HR for 10 straight seasons with no drop off after steroid testing and he's one and done. That's harsh.
Alan Trammell- NO. Well short of Barry Larkin's numbers. A very good but not great career.
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