5/27- Another horrible day but at least I learned some things. Tried again to go long and was even worse than yesterday. This time, I was only able to hold a sub-10 pace for half a mile then turned around. It appeared that I was improving yesterday evening but it did not carry over to today. The culprit was clearly TRS, which I take in the mornings. This explains why I have almost always been better in the evenings than the mornings as of late. Again, I got a little better a few hours later but took another turn for the worse after a couple more sprays. 1 lap at Montreat took 3:17 (9:51 pace).
PM- In another interesting turn of events, sulfur and methyl products remain off limits but the non-methyl pills such as the B-complex and CBS/NOS are now tolerated again. Just 6 hours after my last TRS sprays, I was down to 2:48 (8:24 pace). Given my recent history, I predict that I will make it through the day tomorrow without TRS and might do decently well by the afternoon. I'll probably still be okay on Wednesday morning but will crash by the afternoon and need the TRS again.
Distance-2.0
Reaction:
Is there anything I can do to stop this crap from happening all the time? Yes. I will take the TRS at night instead of in the morning and reduce the dosage from 5 sprays to 3. Also, 1 or 2 days per week will be TRS and pill free to give my system a rest. A 2 day break shortly before race day should ensure that it will be tolerated the night before the race. Again, the turnaround must begin NOW or NEVER!
5/28-AM- Roughly 18 hours after my last spray, I was down to 2:22 at Montreat (7:06 pace) MINUS 78 then added a long cool. I think I can get under the Mendoza line this afternoon. I expect that I will remain okay until about noon tomorrow then my system will DEMAND the TRS again.
PM- Under the Mendoza line but I really had to work for it. Finished 3 miles in 23:51 (7:57 pace) with splits of 7:56-8:00-7:55. I didn't have it sealed until the last quarter mile but was under 8 pace all the way by just a few ticks. It is now almost 36 hours since my last spray and I won't be surprised if I'll need it when I wake up tomorrow. I still plan to hold off until afternoon so I can get into a nightly routine from now on.
Distance=4.5
5/29- AM- As expected, I did need the TRS upon rising but will hold off as planned until the afternoon. Did a half mile at Montreat and it was AWFUL! This is good news actually. If the TRS is not tolerated, there is no way that I get the toxins out and my vital organs will eventually FAIL! I know now that 36 hours is as long as I can go without it. How many consecutive days can it be tolerated? I still don't know that yet but I have a plan to time it well so that I will be able to at least survive in Seattle.
PM- Got worse throughout the day but as expected, I was a lot better after taking the TRS. Stayed indoors because I wasn't sure how I would do. Ended up repeating the 3 miler and my time was down to 23:18 (7:46 pace). MINUS 11. Splits were 7:43-7:49-7:46. Felt noticeably better compared to yesterday as well. Took the non-methyl pills tonight and it seemed to be tolerated.
Distance=3.5
5/30- I spoke too soon about tolerance to pills. I got pains under my ribcage shortly afterwards, which is a sign of too much stress on the vital organs burdened by toxins. Here's the verdict:
Tolerated: Probiotics, ADHS, B-complex
NOT: B-complex, Charcoal
Very limited tolerance: CBS/NOS caps
The pills that are not tolerated are all involved with sulfur detox. I'll just have to build up VERY gradually after the trip
Ended up with 2 junk miles with an afternoon session in 8:27
Distance=2.0
5/31- AM- Montreat 3 in the morning. Finished in 25:36 (8:32 pace). Triple the distance at a comparable pace. I'll take it. Splits were 8:39-8:32-8:25.
Distance=3.0
6/1- AM- I knew I was in trouble yesterday evening when I started getting drowsy for no real reason. I stiffened up shortly thereafter. As I surmised, I needed the Charcoal and/or the CBS/NOS caps. Yes, once again, a pill that was not tolerated yesterday became necessary today. Once the sulfur detox process is set in motion, it can't be stopped. The need will be insatiable for the next few days then it will calm down. Took 2 pills this morning but it wasn't enough. Started off okay for the first quarter mile then faded hard. Ended with another FAILURE in a group run. 2 miles in 22:06 (11:03 pace). Did start to feel better after more Charcoal.
PM- Intervals:
Opener- 3:35 (10:45 pace)
CBS/NOS caps- 3:00 (9:00 pace)
Taurine- 3:25 (10:15 pace)
It's simple. I NEED to detox the sulfur and can now take the CBS/NOS. I thought taurine would be tolerated now that I am back on the CBS/NOS but no, it is not. I must take mega doses for the next several days to have a shot at a sub-2 in Seattle and methyl groups must remain off limits until taurine is tolerated.
Distance=3.0
6/2- SUCCESS! Lakeshore 10 in 89:40 (8:58 pace) despite the fact that yesterday's sulfur probably hasn't fully cleared. First half-45:40, 2nd half-44-flat. Last mile was 8:03. This average pace would bring me home in 1:57:xx or about 1 minute faster than Rhode Island but I had plenty left and conditions will definitely be cooler in Seattle. It was already sunny and 75 when I finished. Time to pack. Flight leaves at 5:00.
Distance=10.0
-28 miles on the week. YTD- 500
Monday, May 27, 2019
Monday, May 20, 2019
Training 5/20-5/26
5/20- Showed little improvement. 3 miles at Gold's in 28:28 (9:29 pace). Fairly even splits. I've become intolerance to glycine and methyl folate and once again, it is because they contain sulfur. OUCH! All I can tolerate now is the TRS, ADHS, Magnesium, B-complex and the CBS/NOS.
Distance=3.0
5/21- AM- Paid the price for last night's methyl folate and glycine. Just 1 lap at Montreat in 3:51 (11:33 pace) and I had seen enough.
PM- Began feeling better in the afternoon and showed some improvement over yesterday. Repeated the Gold's 3 and my time is down to 26:51 (8:57 pace). Slowed considerably after the 1st quarter mile but held the pace around 9 the rest of the way and did not need a kick to finish under 9 overall. Added a 2 lap cool. Nearly 24 hours after taking the bad stuff. Tomorrow is big.
Distance=3.5
5/22-AM- Split decision today. Good news is that at least so far, my system has not demanded the methylation. Same 3 mile as yesterday evening and my time improved to 25:42 (8:34 pace). Splits were 8:27-8:35-8:40 so in what has become a trend in the past few days, the negative splits are gone. Instead, it is the expected gradual fade. MINUS 23 is a pretty solid improvement in just over 12 hours. I figure that I need to be sub-24:00 (Mendoza line) at this distance to have a shot at a sub-2 in Seattle.
Bad news is that I hurt myself after the run by eating a protein bar for breakfast. Again, it indirectly raised the sulfur load. I will be worthless until tomorrow afternoon. In the last 2 weeks, I have become intolerant to Maca, DIM, NAC, Taurine, Methylfolate, glycine and now protein.
Distance=3.0
5/23- AM- Forbidden protein is not all the way out. Montreat Mile in 9:42
PM- Gold's 3 in 24:39 (8:13 pace). MINUS 21. Steady progress. Just 13 above the Mendoza line. I can get under it tomorrow barring another relapse.
Distance=4.0
5/24- Got off to a decent start but faded early and was reduced to a walk/jog before the end of Mile 1. I am now intolerant to ALL treatments except for the TRS. Now or never!
Distance=1.5
5/25- Day trip to Tennessee. I knew that I could not run long so I made the best of it.
5/26- AM- Planned to go 10 no matter how long it took. I was dead after 1.5 then turned around. Finished 3 miles in 30:48 (10:16 pace). Started off at 9:30 pace but slipped to 11:20 at the end.
PM- Repeated the 3 mile distance this time at Gold's. Time was down to 26:51 (8:57 pace) but it took a rally in the last half mile to get under 9 minute pace. Still a big improvement.
Distance=6.0
-21 miles on the week. YTD-472
Distance=3.0
5/21- AM- Paid the price for last night's methyl folate and glycine. Just 1 lap at Montreat in 3:51 (11:33 pace) and I had seen enough.
PM- Began feeling better in the afternoon and showed some improvement over yesterday. Repeated the Gold's 3 and my time is down to 26:51 (8:57 pace). Slowed considerably after the 1st quarter mile but held the pace around 9 the rest of the way and did not need a kick to finish under 9 overall. Added a 2 lap cool. Nearly 24 hours after taking the bad stuff. Tomorrow is big.
Distance=3.5
5/22-AM- Split decision today. Good news is that at least so far, my system has not demanded the methylation. Same 3 mile as yesterday evening and my time improved to 25:42 (8:34 pace). Splits were 8:27-8:35-8:40 so in what has become a trend in the past few days, the negative splits are gone. Instead, it is the expected gradual fade. MINUS 23 is a pretty solid improvement in just over 12 hours. I figure that I need to be sub-24:00 (Mendoza line) at this distance to have a shot at a sub-2 in Seattle.
Bad news is that I hurt myself after the run by eating a protein bar for breakfast. Again, it indirectly raised the sulfur load. I will be worthless until tomorrow afternoon. In the last 2 weeks, I have become intolerant to Maca, DIM, NAC, Taurine, Methylfolate, glycine and now protein.
Distance=3.0
5/23- AM- Forbidden protein is not all the way out. Montreat Mile in 9:42
PM- Gold's 3 in 24:39 (8:13 pace). MINUS 21. Steady progress. Just 13 above the Mendoza line. I can get under it tomorrow barring another relapse.
Distance=4.0
5/24- Got off to a decent start but faded early and was reduced to a walk/jog before the end of Mile 1. I am now intolerant to ALL treatments except for the TRS. Now or never!
Distance=1.5
5/25- Day trip to Tennessee. I knew that I could not run long so I made the best of it.
5/26- AM- Planned to go 10 no matter how long it took. I was dead after 1.5 then turned around. Finished 3 miles in 30:48 (10:16 pace). Started off at 9:30 pace but slipped to 11:20 at the end.
PM- Repeated the 3 mile distance this time at Gold's. Time was down to 26:51 (8:57 pace) but it took a rally in the last half mile to get under 9 minute pace. Still a big improvement.
Distance=6.0
-21 miles on the week. YTD-472
Tuesday, May 14, 2019
Training 5/13-5/19
5/13- Unplanned rest day. I figured that I would finish the bottle of Maca then not re-order. The Maca is not tolerated. Another wasted day. Pitched the bottle.
5/14- AM- Opened with a 3:30 lap at Montreat (10:30 pace)
With TRS- Improved to 3:15 (9:45 pace) plus a cool
The TRS is tolerated. Hopefully, it will remained tolerated if I don't mess with Maca or DIM. I will be better this afternoon once the Maca clears.
PM- 3 miles on Lakeshore in 28:57 (9:39 pace). Marginally faster than the morning session at 9 times the distance. I was hoping for better than this however.
Distance=4.0
5/15- The DIM is now off limits. Another wasted day. Forced myself to jog 1 mile. In theory, I should be done with relapses. I will stick with the TRS.
Distance=1.0
5/16- AM- Junk intervals was all I could do.
Opener- 3:58 (11:54 pace)
With TRS- 3:44 (11:12 pace)
With all other pills- 3:32 (10:36 pace)
MINUS 78 overall but as a percentage, it's still relatively low. If I had opened at 8:00 pace, I believe the distance between the floor and ceiling would be under 60. As long as the TRS is tolerated, I still have a chance.
PM- Finally beginning to get some clearance. 1 Mile at Montreat in 9:24. MINUS 72 over 3 times the distance. I'll take it.
Distance=2.0
5/17- AM- Montreat Mile in 8:46. MINUS 38. A significant improvement in 12 hours but I was hoping for better than this.
PM- Lakeshore 3 in 26:54 (8:58 pace). Again, I did improve but not by nearly as much as I hoped. I'm afraid this current layer of toxicity is the most severe that I have had.
Distance=4.0
5/18- AM- Took just a few specks of Maca last night and it was noticeably worse. I expected it to clear by the morning but it didn't. Forced myself to walk/jog 1 mile. Got home and was a little better. Improved to 9:51 for the Montreat Mile.
PM- 3 miles at Gold's. Time is down to 25:25 (8:28 pace) with even splits. I'm hoping to do 10 tomorrow no matter how long it takes.
Distance=5.0
5/19- FAILED again! Started off in the mid-high 9s then faded to 10+ pace and quit after 1 mile in 10:08 overall. The culprit was NAC (N-acetyl cysteine). Jeannie's theory was correct. It was the SULFUR in the Maca and DIM that caused the relapse. Got home and experimented with extra CBS NOS and moly. I was somewhat better with the extra pills (3:36 vs 3:22) MINUS 42 but that's not enough to be a game changer and not nearly enough to counteract the sulfur. A 3:22 lap is 10:06 pace vs 10:48 so that's hardly cause for celebration. Took a Taurine pill later and had another BAD reaction. That confirms it! Any pill that contains sulfur is to be strictly off limits until further notice. Another layer of toxicity has come to the surface. In time, Sulfur may be tolerated again.
Distance=2.0
-18 miles on the week. Just 2 weeks of good training before I leave for Seattle. Not looking good at all. YTD-451
5/14- AM- Opened with a 3:30 lap at Montreat (10:30 pace)
With TRS- Improved to 3:15 (9:45 pace) plus a cool
The TRS is tolerated. Hopefully, it will remained tolerated if I don't mess with Maca or DIM. I will be better this afternoon once the Maca clears.
PM- 3 miles on Lakeshore in 28:57 (9:39 pace). Marginally faster than the morning session at 9 times the distance. I was hoping for better than this however.
Distance=4.0
5/15- The DIM is now off limits. Another wasted day. Forced myself to jog 1 mile. In theory, I should be done with relapses. I will stick with the TRS.
Distance=1.0
5/16- AM- Junk intervals was all I could do.
Opener- 3:58 (11:54 pace)
With TRS- 3:44 (11:12 pace)
With all other pills- 3:32 (10:36 pace)
MINUS 78 overall but as a percentage, it's still relatively low. If I had opened at 8:00 pace, I believe the distance between the floor and ceiling would be under 60. As long as the TRS is tolerated, I still have a chance.
PM- Finally beginning to get some clearance. 1 Mile at Montreat in 9:24. MINUS 72 over 3 times the distance. I'll take it.
Distance=2.0
5/17- AM- Montreat Mile in 8:46. MINUS 38. A significant improvement in 12 hours but I was hoping for better than this.
PM- Lakeshore 3 in 26:54 (8:58 pace). Again, I did improve but not by nearly as much as I hoped. I'm afraid this current layer of toxicity is the most severe that I have had.
Distance=4.0
5/18- AM- Took just a few specks of Maca last night and it was noticeably worse. I expected it to clear by the morning but it didn't. Forced myself to walk/jog 1 mile. Got home and was a little better. Improved to 9:51 for the Montreat Mile.
PM- 3 miles at Gold's. Time is down to 25:25 (8:28 pace) with even splits. I'm hoping to do 10 tomorrow no matter how long it takes.
Distance=5.0
5/19- FAILED again! Started off in the mid-high 9s then faded to 10+ pace and quit after 1 mile in 10:08 overall. The culprit was NAC (N-acetyl cysteine). Jeannie's theory was correct. It was the SULFUR in the Maca and DIM that caused the relapse. Got home and experimented with extra CBS NOS and moly. I was somewhat better with the extra pills (3:36 vs 3:22) MINUS 42 but that's not enough to be a game changer and not nearly enough to counteract the sulfur. A 3:22 lap is 10:06 pace vs 10:48 so that's hardly cause for celebration. Took a Taurine pill later and had another BAD reaction. That confirms it! Any pill that contains sulfur is to be strictly off limits until further notice. Another layer of toxicity has come to the surface. In time, Sulfur may be tolerated again.
Distance=2.0
-18 miles on the week. Just 2 weeks of good training before I leave for Seattle. Not looking good at all. YTD-451
Sunday, May 12, 2019
Detox and Prognosis Part 2
As of now, if I was to race on a good day, the results would be around the following:
Mile- 7:00
5K- mid-high 24
10K- low-mid 52
Half- 1:57 (on a flat course)
That's roughly 2 minutes slower per mile across the board than my all time best and still a full 1 minute per mile slower than my post-35 best times. The longer the distance, the uglier it gets. Still, the 1:58 in Rhode Island was encouraging. My split at 8 miles was almost exactly the same as it was in Iowa where I finished in 2:06. I made up 8 minutes over the last 5 miles (1:40 per mile). This rate of improvement cannot continue because I don't have the room for it anymore. My slowest mile in Rhode Island was just 22 seconds off my average pace. Seattle is 4 weeks away and I figure that if I can run a 1:55, that would be a very good showing.
Yes, I do expect that my speed will eventually come back with time especially if I am consistent with the training. However, as I have repeated over and over again, slower times is a trade that I am willing to make IF I can avoid the horrible days. Problem is, that is not happening. 2 out of the last 3 weekends, I died in Mile 3 of my long run and was worthless for the rest of the weekend. COMPLETELY UNACCEPTABLE OUTCOME! Both times, it was the detox products that caused the problem but after a couple of days off it, my body demanded it again. It is imperative that the detox products be taken. My life depends on it. If left untreated, my organs will eventually fail.
Why the relapses? The theory is that I am peeling off layers of toxins and bringing even more dangerous toxic stuff up to the surface. I'm afraid that I will simply have to deal with days like that until the toxins are removed. I'll just have to hope that it doesn't happen on race day. Is there anything that I can do to prevent it?
I'm not going to mess with the DIM and Maca anymore. As of now, I get a small boost on it when I am tolerating the TRS but it's not night and day so I don't believe I need it. I hope that if I just stick with the TRS, at the very least, the detox reactions will not be as severe. I tried moly and Charcoal and don't think it made any difference. Sugar and caffeine also don't seem to make a difference but I am still well advised to avoid it. About 4 days before a race day, I will take 2 days off the TRS so my system will need it on the big day.
Mile- 7:00
5K- mid-high 24
10K- low-mid 52
Half- 1:57 (on a flat course)
That's roughly 2 minutes slower per mile across the board than my all time best and still a full 1 minute per mile slower than my post-35 best times. The longer the distance, the uglier it gets. Still, the 1:58 in Rhode Island was encouraging. My split at 8 miles was almost exactly the same as it was in Iowa where I finished in 2:06. I made up 8 minutes over the last 5 miles (1:40 per mile). This rate of improvement cannot continue because I don't have the room for it anymore. My slowest mile in Rhode Island was just 22 seconds off my average pace. Seattle is 4 weeks away and I figure that if I can run a 1:55, that would be a very good showing.
Yes, I do expect that my speed will eventually come back with time especially if I am consistent with the training. However, as I have repeated over and over again, slower times is a trade that I am willing to make IF I can avoid the horrible days. Problem is, that is not happening. 2 out of the last 3 weekends, I died in Mile 3 of my long run and was worthless for the rest of the weekend. COMPLETELY UNACCEPTABLE OUTCOME! Both times, it was the detox products that caused the problem but after a couple of days off it, my body demanded it again. It is imperative that the detox products be taken. My life depends on it. If left untreated, my organs will eventually fail.
Why the relapses? The theory is that I am peeling off layers of toxins and bringing even more dangerous toxic stuff up to the surface. I'm afraid that I will simply have to deal with days like that until the toxins are removed. I'll just have to hope that it doesn't happen on race day. Is there anything that I can do to prevent it?
I'm not going to mess with the DIM and Maca anymore. As of now, I get a small boost on it when I am tolerating the TRS but it's not night and day so I don't believe I need it. I hope that if I just stick with the TRS, at the very least, the detox reactions will not be as severe. I tried moly and Charcoal and don't think it made any difference. Sugar and caffeine also don't seem to make a difference but I am still well advised to avoid it. About 4 days before a race day, I will take 2 days off the TRS so my system will need it on the big day.
Tuesday, May 7, 2019
Training 5/6-5/12
5/6- Planned rest day
5/7- 2 days after a half marathon, I expected to be a bit sore and was not expecting much. Easy 3.5 on Canterbury in 30:50 (8:48 pace) plus a half mile cool. Even pace but I could feel a fade coming if I had continued. All is still okay.
Distance=4.0
5/8- Trak Shak 3 mile loop in 23:56 (7:59 pace). Better than yesterday but I still don't feel good about this one. I was nearly all out at the end and barely made it under the Mendoza line. In a 5K race, I'd be over 24 for sure and probably closer to 25. I've got a LONG way to go.
Distance=3.0
5/9- Gold's 5 in 42:20 (8:28 pace). Not too bad. 1st half-21:17, 2nd half-21:03. Found a good rhythm early in Mile 3 and held it to the finish. Felt that I could have gone several additional miles at this pace. This is 1:50:xx half marathon pace.
Distance=5.0
5/10- Reverse Lakeshore 4 in 33:08 (8:17 pace). No complaints about this one. I was out faster (8:04) then deliberately slowed to the low 8:20s the rest of the way to save my strength for the weekend. Unsure if I will go long tomorrow. The weather looks very iffy right now and it is supposed to clear out by Sunday afternoon.
Distance=4.0
5/11- Another failed long run and once again, the detox products were the culprit. Is there anything I can do to prevent this from happening so often? Maybe take a day or two off them every week? At any rate, I showed no sign of any issues yesterday but today was an entirely different story. I was a little sluggish early but was able to hit the planned paces. Came through 2.5 miles right around 22 flat (8:48 pace) then collapsed. Walk/jogged the last 1.5 going back and that took me over 20 minutes.
Distance=4.0
5/12-AM- Junk intervals at Montreat.
Opener- 3:52 (11:36 pace)
After a sugared drink- 3:48 (11:24 pace) While not good for me, it is highly unlikely that is the problem. I'm afraid that I will just have to deal with occasional days like this until further notice.
After a storm- 3:26 (10:18 pace). I bet that I will continue to improve through tomorrow afternoon, then my system will once again demand the TRS.
PM- 2 miles at Montreat (6 laps) and my time was down to 17:48 (8:54 pace). This was only 6 hours after I could not do better than 10 minute pace for just 1 lap. It won't be long until I demand the TRS again. Probably it will happen by tomorrow morning.
Distance=3.0
-23 miles on the week. YTD-433
5/7- 2 days after a half marathon, I expected to be a bit sore and was not expecting much. Easy 3.5 on Canterbury in 30:50 (8:48 pace) plus a half mile cool. Even pace but I could feel a fade coming if I had continued. All is still okay.
Distance=4.0
5/8- Trak Shak 3 mile loop in 23:56 (7:59 pace). Better than yesterday but I still don't feel good about this one. I was nearly all out at the end and barely made it under the Mendoza line. In a 5K race, I'd be over 24 for sure and probably closer to 25. I've got a LONG way to go.
Distance=3.0
5/9- Gold's 5 in 42:20 (8:28 pace). Not too bad. 1st half-21:17, 2nd half-21:03. Found a good rhythm early in Mile 3 and held it to the finish. Felt that I could have gone several additional miles at this pace. This is 1:50:xx half marathon pace.
Distance=5.0
5/10- Reverse Lakeshore 4 in 33:08 (8:17 pace). No complaints about this one. I was out faster (8:04) then deliberately slowed to the low 8:20s the rest of the way to save my strength for the weekend. Unsure if I will go long tomorrow. The weather looks very iffy right now and it is supposed to clear out by Sunday afternoon.
Distance=4.0
5/11- Another failed long run and once again, the detox products were the culprit. Is there anything I can do to prevent this from happening so often? Maybe take a day or two off them every week? At any rate, I showed no sign of any issues yesterday but today was an entirely different story. I was a little sluggish early but was able to hit the planned paces. Came through 2.5 miles right around 22 flat (8:48 pace) then collapsed. Walk/jogged the last 1.5 going back and that took me over 20 minutes.
Distance=4.0
5/12-AM- Junk intervals at Montreat.
Opener- 3:52 (11:36 pace)
After a sugared drink- 3:48 (11:24 pace) While not good for me, it is highly unlikely that is the problem. I'm afraid that I will just have to deal with occasional days like this until further notice.
After a storm- 3:26 (10:18 pace). I bet that I will continue to improve through tomorrow afternoon, then my system will once again demand the TRS.
PM- 2 miles at Montreat (6 laps) and my time was down to 17:48 (8:54 pace). This was only 6 hours after I could not do better than 10 minute pace for just 1 lap. It won't be long until I demand the TRS again. Probably it will happen by tomorrow morning.
Distance=3.0
-23 miles on the week. YTD-433
Off Topic: 2020 Election Prediction
I’ve seen a few YouTube videos making some early predictions so why not try my hand at it? In the spirit of full disclosure, yes, I am a Trump supporter, but I will do my best to be fair and realistic with my picks. We are far more polarized as a country than we were just 2-3 decades ago. Back then, the most conservative/liberal states only deviated about 15 points from the national average. Now, we’re talking about 30-point wins in a 50/50 election. The days of 45+ state landslides are gone. Even if everything breaks in your favor in terms of the economy and the “perfect candidate”, 350-360 EVs is probably the ceiling on both sides.
Who will get the Democratic nomination? It won’t be Bernie Sanders. His proposal to allow murderers and terrorists to vote from prison is too radical even for the Dems. I don’t think it will be Joe Biden either. He’s 78 years old and a gaffe machine. His positions are not liberal enough for the base and I just have a feeling that primary voters will gravitate toward somebody younger and more “hip.” If I had to guess, I’d go with Cory Booker or Kamala Harris with Beto O’Rourke as VP.
Reasons to believe Trump will win:
-Advantage of incumbency
-Soaring economy
-No last-minute Access Hollywood tape
-Most Never-Trump conservatives (Ben Shapiro, Glenn Beck, etc) are now on board.
-Majority of Americans believe the Russian collusion was a hoax.
Reason why he could be vulnerable:
Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate who came within just 1-2 points in several states of winning. FL, PA, WI, MI were decided by less than 2 points each and amounted to 75 EV. If all 4 flipped, it would have been a comfortable Clinton win.
Trump still has high personal unfavorable ratings. That’s partly due to unfair media coverage but partly his own doing. I agree with him on most policy issues but I’m not a blind partisan that will defend everything he does and says. A Democrat who is likable and sensible on policy would have a good shot but most who have declared are hard left.
Now let’s look at the states:
-90-100% chance Republican:
Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia (126 EV)
-90-100% chance Democrat:
Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Illinois, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, DC (182 EV)
That’s 33 states in which the outcome is basically a foregone conclusion and it would take a massive political earthquake to flip. Many of the remaining 17 won’t be all the close either but they are at least worthy of discussion.
80-90% chance Democrat (15 EV):
Colorado- Bush-43 won it twice but it has been trending strongly Democratic and I don’t see a reversal. Perhaps this is should be lowered to the 70% range but it would have to be a 4-5 point win nationwide for Trump to flip this. Not likely.
New Mexico- This state is nearly 50% Hispanic or Native American. Trump needs at least 40% of those votes to be competitive. I don’t see that happening.
Maine’s Congressional District- A Democrat should have no trouble in urban areas near Portland and along the coast. Just 1 vote here.
80-90% chance Republican (62 EV):
Texas- Someday, it will be competitive but not this time. Trump won it by nearly 10 points in 2016 so it’s safe for another cycle. Even with Beto on the ticket, I don’t think it will be enough. Watch out in 2024.
Iowa- Obama won it twice but Trump took it by 9 in 2016. I see little reason to believe it will flip back.
Ohio- Same as Iowa. When I was watching the coverage in 2016 and saw that Ohio would not be close, I knew Trump was going to win.
70-80% chance Republican: (43 EV)
Georgia- This was a little closer than I expected in 2016 (5-6 points). The Atlanta suburbs, which voted for Romney in 2012, flipped to Clinton. Much of that was due to Never-Trump voters, who have mostly come around. Trump will win comfortably here in 2020.
North Carolina- Trump won by 4 in 2016 and this state has been steadily around 5-6 points more Republican than the national average since 2008. I don’t see that changing.
Arizona- Trump won by 3.5 here or nearly 6 points more Republican than the national average. A Democrat who is reasonable on immigration would have a chance, but a wide-open border policy won’t sell here. The media reports that the crisis is manufactured but residents know otherwise.
Maine’s Congressional District- I don’t remember if it’s the 1st or 2nd district but Trump won it easily and I expect he will do it again. It’s only 1 vote but it really could be the difference.
60-70% chance Democrat:
Virginia- I may be overly optimistic to think this will be close as it was a 5 point win for Clinton and has been rapidly trending Democratic. That said, Clinton got a boost from Kaine being on the ticket and there could be a backlash against the Dems after Gov. Northam’s racism and disgusting views on late-term abortion came out. I expect a staunchly pro-abortion candidate to be nominated. Most of the land area is still predominantly Southern but the rural vote will not be enough to counteract the growth of the DC suburbs.
Nevada- Clinton won by 2 points here so that would put it right on the bubble in a 50/50 election. I still predict a narrow Dem hold here. Las Vegas is one the fastest growing cities in the country and the new residents tend to be younger and more liberal.
60-70% chance Republican-
Florida- If Trump wins here, it’s basically game over. He’d only need 1 toss up state in the rust belt. He still has a path without it but it’s a LOT more difficult. He’d have to hold either PA or MI to stay alive then must flip Minnesota and New Hampshire while holding Wisconsin. A win in both PA and MI would leave him just 1 state short. As for Florida, it’s been consistently 2-4 points more Republican than the national average in every election since 2004 so in a 50/50 election, the GOP candidate always has a narrow edge. I expect the same in 2020. Either way, it will go down to the wire.
Tossups:
Michigan (16)- This state is the most likely to be a Democratic pick up. It was decided by a razor thin margin in 2016 and supposedly, bad weather depressed turn out in African American areas of Detroit. Don’t expect that to happen again. Prediction: Democrat win.
Pennsylvania (20)- This one depends on who is nominated. A strong economy favors Trump in a state decided by about 1 point in 2016 and trended in his favor. Biden could win, and Booker would have a good shot. Harris or O’Rourke would get shelled in the Pittsburgh suburbs and exurbs, where Trump gained the most votes in 2016. Prediction: Wait for the nominee but if I had to choose now, it's Trump.
Minnesota-(10)- Decided by just 1.5 points in 2016 and that margin was less than Evan McMullin’s vote total. That’s down from 8 points in 2012 and fractionally more Republican than the national average. Never-Trumpers have come aboard and I see a backlash against the likes of Rep. Omar and her blatant Antisemitism. Minneapolis/St. Paul will remain a Dem stronghold, but Duluth could be flipped while rural areas will go strongly for Trump. Prediction: Upset win for Trump.
Maine State-(2)- Obama won by 15 in 2012 but the gap was closed to just 3 points in 2016 or within 1 point of the national average. I may be going out on a limb here, but I predict that the trend continues and it’s another upset win for Trump.
New Hampshire-(4)- It was a razor thin margin for Clinton in 2016 and is trending Republican but the trend is not nearly as drastic as in neighboring Maine. Obama won by only 5 in 2012. It will be close again but in a state that has not gone Republican since 2000, I will give the edge to the Dems narrowly.
Wisconsin-(10)-This was one of the biggest surprises of 2016 as Trump flipped a state that went to Obama by 7 points in 2012. Given the economic strength and a supportive base, I once again give a narrow edge to Trump over a generic Democrat.
Final numbers- Trump 286-236 with PA TBD
Monday, May 6, 2019
Providence Rhode Race Report
This is not a race that would have been on my radar if not for the 50 states goal. I had initially planned to knock out Connecticut and Rhode Island on the same weekend but with my diminished fitness, that’s just not possible now. I don’t believe it is necessary to spend a night in a state to count it under the strict standards but for the record, this would be my first night in Rhode Island. I had been to Newport last year and saw a legitimate tourist attraction with the beach and cliff walk. I had not been to the capitol city of Providence and this one fit my schedule well so why not? Detox was brutal earlier in the week and I actually considered bailing but the tide turned on Thursday, so it was a go.
Traffic getting out of Birmingham was a little rough but once I cleared that, it was a smooth ride to Atlanta for a cheap and direct flight into Providence. My hotel was quite pricey, but it did offer a free shuttle to and from the airport. Since I would not be doing additional travel, I would not have to rent a car or even take Uber so that evened things out. There were plenty of restaurants and taverns within walking distance of my hotel and I opted for some good pizza. Next, I picked up my packet at the expo and toured the Capitol area, a shopping mall and the Riverwalk. The was pretty much the extent of my touring. I would be in bed early that night as my body was tired from the travel and walking.
No real complaints about the organization or the course. It began and ended in town but much of the scenery was non-descript except for a nice riverside section around Mile 10. Course difficulty was in the average range. It did have several half to ¾ mile long inclines but nothing was particularly steep and it was usually followed by an equally long downhill. The weather was likely to be the biggest pain with a forecast high of 54 degrees with a 100% percent chance of rain. In the end, it did rain most of the race but it was never much more than a drizzle so I didn’t mind. I took off about as slowly as possible to at least delay the meltdown but found that 8:45 pace was about as slow as I could go without losing form. I decided to take short walk breaks on the hills to get the overall pace closer to 9:00. Here are the early miles.
8:40 (8:40)
8:45 (17:25)
9:11 (26:36)
8:59 (35:35)
So far so good but based on the elevation chart, it looked like Mile 6 would be tough. Indeed, it was a long incline, but it was followed by a nice long decline. It seemed like there was another longer hill around Mile 8 or 9 that didn’t seem to register. Nevertheless, I remained in control and felt much more comfortable than I had at the same point of the race in Iowa. Even with a meltdown, an improvement over my 2:06 was assured and I thought I had a shot a sub-2.
8:48 (44:23)
9:00 (53:23)
8:55 (62:18)
9:02 (71:20)
9:12 (80:32)
9:16 (89:48)
At the 10-mile mark, I was still under 9 minute pace overall and 3 minutes faster than Iowa 2 weeks ago. I figured that I was around 90:45 with 3 miles to go. I needed to hold a 9:45 the rest of the way and that appeared to be a good bet. My energy had faded a bit but no meltdown was imminent. Unfortunately, Mile 11 was almost all uphill but I knew that if I could survive that, it was mine. The pace never went above 9:30. I knew that I was safe heading into the last mile and really didn’t care about being 10-15 seconds faster at the finish line. I ran hard but controlled heading to the finish and made a bit of a push when I saw that I would be under 1:59. The official chip time was 1:58:54. That’s more than 14 minutes better than Delaware just 6 weeks earlier. I believe the detox is working. Can I sustain the improvement, and can I avoid the horrible days? That remains to be seen.
9:27 (99:15)
9:25 (1:48:40)
9:21 (1:58:01)
With the rain coming down harder and a later flight, I did no more touring. I took my time getting changed and checking out and had a nice seafood dinner at the airport during my long wait for my flight. No issues on the way home and I was back at work the next day. 42 race states. 40 half marathons.
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