I’ve seen a few YouTube videos making some early predictions so why not try my hand at it? In the spirit of full disclosure, yes, I am a Trump supporter, but I will do my best to be fair and realistic with my picks. We are far more polarized as a country than we were just 2-3 decades ago. Back then, the most conservative/liberal states only deviated about 15 points from the national average. Now, we’re talking about 30-point wins in a 50/50 election. The days of 45+ state landslides are gone. Even if everything breaks in your favor in terms of the economy and the “perfect candidate”, 350-360 EVs is probably the ceiling on both sides.
Who will get the Democratic nomination? It won’t be Bernie Sanders. His proposal to allow murderers and terrorists to vote from prison is too radical even for the Dems. I don’t think it will be Joe Biden either. He’s 78 years old and a gaffe machine. His positions are not liberal enough for the base and I just have a feeling that primary voters will gravitate toward somebody younger and more “hip.” If I had to guess, I’d go with Cory Booker or Kamala Harris with Beto O’Rourke as VP.
Reasons to believe Trump will win:
-Advantage of incumbency
-Soaring economy
-No last-minute Access Hollywood tape
-Most Never-Trump conservatives (Ben Shapiro, Glenn Beck, etc) are now on board.
-Majority of Americans believe the Russian collusion was a hoax.
Reason why he could be vulnerable:
Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate who came within just 1-2 points in several states of winning. FL, PA, WI, MI were decided by less than 2 points each and amounted to 75 EV. If all 4 flipped, it would have been a comfortable Clinton win.
Trump still has high personal unfavorable ratings. That’s partly due to unfair media coverage but partly his own doing. I agree with him on most policy issues but I’m not a blind partisan that will defend everything he does and says. A Democrat who is likable and sensible on policy would have a good shot but most who have declared are hard left.
Now let’s look at the states:
-90-100% chance Republican:
Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia (126 EV)
-90-100% chance Democrat:
Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Illinois, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, DC (182 EV)
That’s 33 states in which the outcome is basically a foregone conclusion and it would take a massive political earthquake to flip. Many of the remaining 17 won’t be all the close either but they are at least worthy of discussion.
80-90% chance Democrat (15 EV):
Colorado- Bush-43 won it twice but it has been trending strongly Democratic and I don’t see a reversal. Perhaps this is should be lowered to the 70% range but it would have to be a 4-5 point win nationwide for Trump to flip this. Not likely.
New Mexico- This state is nearly 50% Hispanic or Native American. Trump needs at least 40% of those votes to be competitive. I don’t see that happening.
Maine’s Congressional District- A Democrat should have no trouble in urban areas near Portland and along the coast. Just 1 vote here.
80-90% chance Republican (62 EV):
Texas- Someday, it will be competitive but not this time. Trump won it by nearly 10 points in 2016 so it’s safe for another cycle. Even with Beto on the ticket, I don’t think it will be enough. Watch out in 2024.
Iowa- Obama won it twice but Trump took it by 9 in 2016. I see little reason to believe it will flip back.
Ohio- Same as Iowa. When I was watching the coverage in 2016 and saw that Ohio would not be close, I knew Trump was going to win.
70-80% chance Republican: (43 EV)
Georgia- This was a little closer than I expected in 2016 (5-6 points). The Atlanta suburbs, which voted for Romney in 2012, flipped to Clinton. Much of that was due to Never-Trump voters, who have mostly come around. Trump will win comfortably here in 2020.
North Carolina- Trump won by 4 in 2016 and this state has been steadily around 5-6 points more Republican than the national average since 2008. I don’t see that changing.
Arizona- Trump won by 3.5 here or nearly 6 points more Republican than the national average. A Democrat who is reasonable on immigration would have a chance, but a wide-open border policy won’t sell here. The media reports that the crisis is manufactured but residents know otherwise.
Maine’s Congressional District- I don’t remember if it’s the 1st or 2nd district but Trump won it easily and I expect he will do it again. It’s only 1 vote but it really could be the difference.
60-70% chance Democrat:
Virginia- I may be overly optimistic to think this will be close as it was a 5 point win for Clinton and has been rapidly trending Democratic. That said, Clinton got a boost from Kaine being on the ticket and there could be a backlash against the Dems after Gov. Northam’s racism and disgusting views on late-term abortion came out. I expect a staunchly pro-abortion candidate to be nominated. Most of the land area is still predominantly Southern but the rural vote will not be enough to counteract the growth of the DC suburbs.
Nevada- Clinton won by 2 points here so that would put it right on the bubble in a 50/50 election. I still predict a narrow Dem hold here. Las Vegas is one the fastest growing cities in the country and the new residents tend to be younger and more liberal.
60-70% chance Republican-
Florida- If Trump wins here, it’s basically game over. He’d only need 1 toss up state in the rust belt. He still has a path without it but it’s a LOT more difficult. He’d have to hold either PA or MI to stay alive then must flip Minnesota and New Hampshire while holding Wisconsin. A win in both PA and MI would leave him just 1 state short. As for Florida, it’s been consistently 2-4 points more Republican than the national average in every election since 2004 so in a 50/50 election, the GOP candidate always has a narrow edge. I expect the same in 2020. Either way, it will go down to the wire.
Tossups:
Michigan (16)- This state is the most likely to be a Democratic pick up. It was decided by a razor thin margin in 2016 and supposedly, bad weather depressed turn out in African American areas of Detroit. Don’t expect that to happen again. Prediction: Democrat win.
Pennsylvania (20)- This one depends on who is nominated. A strong economy favors Trump in a state decided by about 1 point in 2016 and trended in his favor. Biden could win, and Booker would have a good shot. Harris or O’Rourke would get shelled in the Pittsburgh suburbs and exurbs, where Trump gained the most votes in 2016. Prediction: Wait for the nominee but if I had to choose now, it's Trump.
Minnesota-(10)- Decided by just 1.5 points in 2016 and that margin was less than Evan McMullin’s vote total. That’s down from 8 points in 2012 and fractionally more Republican than the national average. Never-Trumpers have come aboard and I see a backlash against the likes of Rep. Omar and her blatant Antisemitism. Minneapolis/St. Paul will remain a Dem stronghold, but Duluth could be flipped while rural areas will go strongly for Trump. Prediction: Upset win for Trump.
Maine State-(2)- Obama won by 15 in 2012 but the gap was closed to just 3 points in 2016 or within 1 point of the national average. I may be going out on a limb here, but I predict that the trend continues and it’s another upset win for Trump.
New Hampshire-(4)- It was a razor thin margin for Clinton in 2016 and is trending Republican but the trend is not nearly as drastic as in neighboring Maine. Obama won by only 5 in 2012. It will be close again but in a state that has not gone Republican since 2000, I will give the edge to the Dems narrowly.
Wisconsin-(10)-This was one of the biggest surprises of 2016 as Trump flipped a state that went to Obama by 7 points in 2012. Given the economic strength and a supportive base, I once again give a narrow edge to Trump over a generic Democrat.
Final numbers- Trump 286-236 with PA TBD
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