My Christmas Vacation

 No visit to see my parents and this is NOT something that I want to repeat as long as they are alive.  I would have been miserable if I stayed home so I would go and make the best of it.  

12/20- Left home in the afternoon and headed towards Gatlinburg.  Spent the night in Cherokee, North Carolina just outside the Great Smoky Mountain National Park.  Nice mountain scenery but I had hoped to see snow capped mountain peaks.  No such luck,  Only at 4500-5000 feet was there a dusting of snow on the ground and the road up to Klingman's Dome (6600 feet) was closed for the winter.

12/21- Ober Gatlinburg.  First time skiing in nearly 25 years and I consider it a success.  I did take lessons and was very cautious out there.  Yes, there were a couple of small spills but I did progress to the ski lifts and Beginner slopes by the end of the day.  From there, it was a longer than expected drive to Atlanta to catch my flight to Cancun the next morning.  It required a plane flight but I've checked off a bucket list item to go skiing and body surfing on back to back days.  I hope to do Maggie Valley/Charleston sometime soon.  The ski resort was located at about 3300 feet elevation so the snow was not real but for Tennessee, I'm not going to complain.  

12/22- Arrived in plenty of time.  This was my first international flight on my own so I was a bit apprehensive.  I did have to show my passport to get my boarding pass and to board the flight itself as well as fill out a Mexican immigration form but it was pretty much painless.  I took a private taxi to my hotel and actually had a decent conversation with my driver in Spanish.  While a sharp cold front was headed for the East Coast in the US, I arrived to find 80 degree temps with palm trees lining the streets.  Cancun is below the Tropic of Cancer but didn't feel quite as tropical as Puerto Rico.  The impending cold front did affect Cancun a bit and brought the temps down to 74 by Christmas Day.  My hotel was on the 5th floor with a full ocean view.

12/23 and 24- Though the sand here is not quite as white as the Emerald Coast, the water is the most beautiful shade of blue that I have ever seen so I've got to give the edge to Cancun.  As far as food, I dined outside and mostly stuck to my hotel.  As far as the surf, I have mixed reviews.  The waves were pretty high at 3-4 feet but I had to be careful of the shore break.  That is, most waves broke and crashed almost directly on the sand.  That meant steep drops and short rides.  It was fun but some of the waves were too big.  A steep drop off directly onto wet sand?  Yes, that can be dangerous.  Lifeguards were vigilant.  I knew what I was doing out there so I was fine and knew which waves not to catch on the board.  Even still, one wave in particular left me with a mildly sore lower back but that did NOT put a damper on the trip.  

12/25- The day dawned cloudy so I ventured away from the hotel to get some real Mexican food and a souvenir t-shirt.  There is an upscale shopping area just a couple kilometers from where I was staying.  Many Americans from border towns come into Mexico for cheap food and dental work but in Cancun, prices are about on par with what you'd find in the USA, maybe even a bit higher.  Oh well, this was meant to be a luxurious vacation.  By the afternoon, I was back in the surf.  Temps had dropped to the low-mid 70s and with a strong wind, it was a tad chilly but I didn't complain with a water temp that remained near 80.  When the sun was out around high noon, that's when the water looks its most beautiful blue.  

12/26- I was able to steal a couple more hours in the surf before catching my flight back.  This one was delayed by more than 2 hours and Cancun is not the most interesting airport either so I wish I had stayed longer at the beach.  Still, I could not risk a SNAFU with immigration or security.  I did have to fill out a health questionnaire.  It was almost midnight by the time I got through Customs.  Needless to say, I was quite tired the next day back in America

Final Thought:

An excellent trip and I may be back someday but I am a variety seeker so if/when I return to a non-border town in Mexico, it will likely be Puerto Vallarta.  That's on the Pacific side in the state of Jalisco several hours north of Acapulco.  I've considered Cabo but the big negative there is that most of the beaches are not safe for swimming and those that are have little to no surf.      

Lactoferrin for Sensitivity

 I have a glimmer of hope:

On the promise of increased immunity against COVID, I ordered a bottle of Lactoferrin ahead of my Cancun flight.  As for Christmas, once again, my parents have decided that it is best that I do NOT come home.  Just like Thanksgiving, if I must be alone, I will go somewhere and have some fun.  Miami is the only spot in the continental US where it will likely be warm enough to swim without a wetsuit and I just went to South Florida last month.  Given possible vaccine requirements, now is my best chance to travel internationally.  

Latest Medical Episode:

I got a can of Mountain Dew with my lunch last week.  I know it's not good for me but for the last time, an odd can every once in a while SHOULD NOT hurt me.  This time, I could feel the trouble starting after just a few sips so I just dumped the rest of the can.  I took just a trace of Probiotics and was immediately BETTER.  BUT, the full pill left me worse off than I was before.  Anyone who reads this blog knows that this is nothing new for me.  Now, given my reaction to pills, just imagine how badly I could react to a vaccine!  I am REALLY worried about a de-facto requirement and I believe the media is over-hyping the threat to scare the public into accepting it.  

Lactoferrin Effective:

As I understand it, Lactoferrin stores and sequesters Iron by raising Ferritin levels, which plays a role in combating fungal growth.  This means that I may not have to mess with the Probiotics.  I've been instructed in a health group to keep Ferritin levels as low as possible.  I may have to disagree.  Excess Iron is bad and I know now that it played a major role in my extreme fast oxidation and need for mega doses of adrenal suppressants.  Fortunately, regular blood donations can protect against that.  The payoff that I did not expect is that Lactoferrin may eliminate the sensitivity.  As with any effective treatment, I got an initial negative response that was followed by an insatiable NEED.  This need will diminish with 7-10 days and it will become just like the other pills in which I can get by without it for 5 days.  

Test Results;

This past weekend, I did everything wrong with the diet.  I took advantage of an unseasonably warm day to go swimming in Pensacola on Saturday (73 degrees with a 69 water temp).  I found it tolerable but the conditions were a bit choppy so I only caught a few really good waves.  At any rate, I drank caffeine and alcohol the previous day.  Without Lactoferrin, I was awful.  I opened with a 2:54 lap at Montreat (8:42 pace) but after a single pill, I was all the way down to 2:25 (7:15 pace).  The moment of truth came after taking both Glutathione and Probiotics,  I only hoped to hold my form but I actually improved marginally to a 2:23 (7:09 pace).  Exactly what I wanted to see.  A small improvement but not enough to be considered significant.  Going forward, IF this holds, I will cut out the Probiotics in favor of Lactoferrin but will give blood a few times per year.  Probably no serious training until the end of the year.  Just some junk runs to prevent getting too far out of shape.

Unrelated Rants:

I've heard of a new migrant caravan starting in Honduras.  Regardless of where you stand on the immigration issue, allowing a large crowd to come in untested DURING a pandemic??  No words to describe the depth of stupidity.  I cannot even walk from San Diego to Tijuana or from El Paso to Ciudad Juarez unless it is for "essential business" and the border restrictions are even tougher in Canada.  

I've also heard that a deep forensic audit of Dominion software voting machines was done in Michigan yet the results have been sealed from the public.  Once again, just let us know the results!  If it showed that a couple small glitches only made the difference of a few hundred votes, I will accept Biden's win as legitimate.  If the result is not revealed, it leads me to believe that there is something that they don't want us to know about.  I will remain suspicious and that's hardly an unreasonable view.  

Final Election Analysis

 Yes, there was some degree of fraud.  Was it enough to change the outcome?  I remain uncertain but suspicious that it did.  I'm going to say possible but bordering on probable.  After a bit more analysis from David Leip's Atlas, I have found several curious results.

Let's start with evidence against Trump:

He's 38 EV short of 270.  Even if he legitimately won Georgia and Arizona, which were decided by about a quarter of 1 percent, he's still 11 votes short.  Even Wisconsin would not be enough.  He'd need to flip PA, which was decided by nearly a full percentage point or 80K votes.  That's pretty steep.  Still, Georgia, Pennsylvania plus any other state would put him over the top.  

I looked at the county by county votes in the swing states.  I did not find any rural counties that flipped massively to Biden after a big Trump win in 2016.  That would be too easy to spot.  Biden did in fact pick up a couple of counties that were close Trump wins in 2016.  

Curious Findings:

Let's start with the Hispanic vote:

Trump gained massive ground in Miami Dade and the Rio Grande valley in Texas.  Biden under-performed Clinton by 13 in Miami and in some cases 30+ in south Texas.  The reasons for that are understandable.  Socialism doesn't sell among Cubans and Venezuelans because they've personally seen the damage that it does.  

In south Texas, I believe the reason is increased support for border control during a pandemic. What kind of fool would support caravans of migrants pouring in while COVID cases are spiking?  It remains to be seen whether or not this trend continues in 2024.  As is the case in many other suburban areas, Trump lost significant ground in formerly deep red areas surrounding Houston and Dallas.  He will need those votes to keep Texas red.

However, those gains among Hispanics did NOT carry over to New Mexico and Arizona.  Again, Hispanics are not a monolith but I still find it curious the he did so much better in Texas but worse in crucial Arizona

Urban areas:

According to exit polls, Trump doubled Romney's share of the black vote.  I suspect it may actually be a touch higher because people may not want to admit it to pollsters in front of their significant other.  Therefore, as expected Biden under-performed both Clinton and Obama as a percentage in most major cities such as New York, Los Angeles and Chicago.  Trump consistently gained about 4-5 points in each of those counties.  HOWEVER, in cities like Milwaukee, Detroit and Atlanta, the opposite occurred.  Biden significantly outperformed Clinton while the number of votes also spiked.  In Philadelphia, I saw about what I expected.  Trump did marginally better as a percentage but was hurt by increased turnout.  The suburbs do look fishy as I will explain next.  

Suburbs:

Yes, I believe that it is true that Trump is losing educated suburban types and was also hurt by those who switched from 3rd party candidates to Biden.  However, the margins of victory by Biden as well as the turnout especially in suburban Atlanta and Philadelphia look suspicious.  I will highlight Cobb county Georgia, which is in the northwest suburbs of Atlanta and once a Republican stronghold that gave us Newt Gingrich.  Biden outperformed Obama's 2012 showing by 24 points and Clinton's by 12.  The vote total increased by 25% versus 2016.   I'm familiar with this county and have seen some changes due to migration and demographics.  Still, that much of change in just 2 short election cycles is hard to believe but not unprecedented..  

Vote counting:

In Ohio and Iowa, mail in votes were counted first.  As a result, Trump was trailing in both states until about 75% of the precincts were reported but surged ahead and neither was close at the end.  When the vote counting paused in the middle of the night, Trump was leading Michigan by 10 and Pennsylvania by 15.  I knew those margins would never hold but I remain suspicious about what happened overnight.  Obviously, mail in ballots were counted last in both states and Biden's margins were huge.  I have my suspicions that some Biden votes were illegal and Trump votes were destroyed.  Even the news media reported that the latter occurred in Georgia.  Recently, a video was uncovered in which several suitcases of ballots were uncovered after counting stopped in Georgia.  What happened there?  

Mail in ballots:

There are unconfirmed reports of ballot curing in Democratic areas.  That is, ballots are filled out incorrectly but changed by poll workers in accordance with voter intentions.  Also, in most elections, about 3% of mail in ballots are rejected due to missing or mismatched signatures.  In this election, that number dropped to just 0.03% while such ballots heavily favored Biden.  

Dominion Software:

Here's where it borders on conspiracy territory.  The CEO allegedly said to Antifa that he made effing sure that Trump would not win.  Could be fake news there but there are reports in which Biden outperformed expectations in areas where the software was used while underperforming elsewhere. There were also reports of an algorithm to change a small percentage of Trump votes to Biden.  If it's just 1 out of 50, it turns a 50/50 county to 52/48, which won't even be questioned.  If this turns out to be baseless, I will admit it and retract this paragraph but I still want to see a full audit of those machines.  After all, Republicans had to listen to the Russia conspiracy theories for 3 years.  

Conclusion:

I believe Georgia was stolen for sure and probably Arizona but I am not convinced about the other states being challenged.  In the future, Democrats are counting on maintaining 75% of the non-white vote and once that share tops 40% of the electorate, it will be virtually impossible for Republicans to win.  We will see one party rule with only token opposition.  Democrats will drift further left and continue to be re-elected in spite of American decline.  No, I don't believe the USA will turn into Venezuela, at least not anytime soon.  Still, when I retire in about 20 years, Communist China will take over as the number 1 superpower and we will see extended economic stagnation.  Not good.

More Health and COVID news

Cocoa

 

Panama

Palm Beach

After discussion with my family, we mutually made the difficult decision that I do not come home for Thanksgiving.  If I had to be alone, I was going somewhere fun and the surf was up on the Florida Atlantic coast as it usually is this time of year.  My base was Cocoa Beach just east of Orlando and about 9 hours from Birmingham.  It was nice but I prefer the vibe at Daytona.  I ended up going as far south as Palm Beach, which is where you really start to get that tropical vibe with with lush coconut palms lining most of the street.  I also made a stop at Flagler Beach between Daytona and St. Augustine as well as the Kennedy Space Center.  I ended up spending Thanksgiving Day itself in Panama City.  Quite surprisingly, I found the conditions to be NICE!  I was plenty comfortable in that water and did not need a wetsuit.  Again, this was in late November and just 4 hours south of Birmingham.  The water temperatures were as follows according to Magic Seaweed:

Cocoa-76, Palm Beach-80, Flagler-71, Panama-73.  Some people are more cold tolerant than others but to me, as long as both the air and water temp are above 70, I'm going in and I will enjoy it too.  Flagler was comparable to Rhode Island in August in terms of temperature. 

Unfortunately, my health has taken another turn for the worse.  When I'm not running much, I'm not as well in tune with my body and thus, I did not realize what was happening until it was too late.  I have become intolerant to Probiotics and as of today, the TRS is also becoming problematic.  Who knows why but the smart money is on another layer of toxins and this is just a temporary reaction.  My whole body was abnormally tight and probably because of this, I sprained my knee a little bit on a wipeout.  I was able to run after 6 days but had to be a little more cautious going after the big waves after that.  I still had fun on the trip but this did put a bit of a damper on it.  I may just take the rest of 2020 off from running and just write the year off as a loss.  There will be no races until at least April and I'm not even sure of that.  

COVID cases are allegedly spiking again.  Not sure if I buy it.  I tend to believe that the media is overhyping this to scare the public into accepting mandatory vaccination.  As for Christmas, I plan on going to see my parents despite divided opinion of other family members.  Though I enjoyed the trip, the sadness kicked in HARD after I got home.  The virus has a survival rate of 99.4-99.6 percent and experimental drugs should increase that further.  The Washington Examiner published another Hydroxychloroquine study.  Patients who take it at early onset are 84 percent LESS likely to be hospitalized yet the drug still will not be approved for treatment.  IMHO, vaccines should certainly be taken for a disease like polio which had great potential to be deadly or leave you with a permanent disability.  COVID-19 is not like that.  Given my medical history, I have good reason to fear a severe reaction to a vaccine and sincerely believe I have a greater risk of long-term complications from the vaccine than the disease itself.

Word on the street is that while the vaccine is 90-95 percent effective, it is likely to trigger mild COVID symptoms as "side effects" and we still don't know the odds of long-term complications.  Worse yet, the vaccine is NOT likely to leave you with permanent immunity.  Instead, you will need a booster shot every 12 months.  What if the virus mutates and there are more strains just like the flu?  I fear that if that's the case, it may never be fully eliminated and we may just have to live with it and accept a new normal.  

Will it be mandatory?  Probably not legally.  I won't be thrown in jail if I refuse but there will be so many restrictions that it might as well be de-facto required.  Ticketmaster has already announced that they will require vaccinations to buy their tickets.  That means no live concerts or sporting events without a vaccine.  I can live without both of those.  The Australian airline Quantas has also announced a vaccine requirement to board their planes.  I can bet pretty good money that it will be required for international travel and possibly domestic flights as well.  I am NOT willing to give that up so I'm afraid that I will have to chance it and take the shot.  I just don't want to give in so easily especially without knowledge of its long-term effects.  In the future, it may even be required to enroll in schools or even work in certain fields.  If I have to take the shot to keep my job, it's really no choice.   I do have regular contact with the public as part of my job duties and am far too young to retire.  THIS SUCKS! 

As for international travel, Mexico is my best chance.  At least for now, they do NOT require a negative test at the time of arrival or departure.  You just have to pass a temperature check.  I'm shooting for Cancun in the winter and possibly Cabo later.  If something changes and I can't go home, I will try to get a last minute ticket to Cancun.  You have to fly into Mexico.  I cannot cross into Tijuana from San Diego or Juarez from El Paso unless it is for essential business.  

Health News

 Interesting.  Once again, I made it 10 days without any sugared or alcoholic drinks but I still crashed.  This time, the culprit was Sulfur containing amino acids such as Taurine and Glutathione.  Not very long ago, I needed the latter and could not go an extended period without it.  At the same time, my intolerance to sugared and alcoholic drinks DISAPPEARED!  I won't be stupid but even if I had a daily habit, it should NOT cost me more than about 20 seconds per mile and a couple rare uses should have negligible effects.  These surprise relapses are par for the course and all of my readers know it.  My only explanation is that toxins are being eliminated one at a time.  When one layer is peeled off, another is revealed.  Thus, the toxins that are on the top layer will trigger different reactions.  Until ALL the toxins are out, I don't see any changes forthcoming.  I will be subjected to crashes that cannot be predicted.  

  Several days later, I took just a trace of Glutathione.  I expected it to trigger a reaction but it didn't.  I did not try a full pill so that could have been different.  I would not be surprised at all if the situation reverses itself and I end up with an intense NEED for Glutathione at some point in the near-future.  To protect against that, I may simply take it occasionally.  Suppose that I take it maybe 2 times per week, that MAY protect against both need and intolerance.  

As for the rest of the pills, I can get by about 5 days without all of them EXCEPT the TRS and Probiotics. With those 2, I can make it 1 day but not 2 and will not rebound all the way with a single dose.  Again, in theory, I am on a path to getting this under control.  Again, I will not get my hopes up.  As for training, I'll just stick to junk runs for the next couple of weeks then try to get back to steady training after Thanksgiving.  There will be no races until at least February and I have a feeling that those will be canceled.  I'm not real confident about a Maryland half in April either.  Best hope is a small town race.  Big cities tend to be strict when it comes to permits.  

Here's what I need:

Maryland, Minnesota, Maine, Hawaii.  I signed up for Salisbury, Maryland but at this point, I'd choose any race to get this done.  It's a fairly small race so it has a chance.   

Third Party Candidates

 This was a pretty significant omission on my part so it deserves a separate post.  Third party candidates totaled 6 percent of the vote in 2016 but just 2 percent in 2020.  Now, I've considered the 4 percent of the electorate that switched from 3rd party to a major candidate this time.  I am betting that they tilted pretty strongly towards Biden.  If it was by a 3-1 margin, that costs Trump 2 points in the national popular vote but my best guess is a 1-2 point swing for the Dem.  Biden was a flawed candidate and a gaffe machine but he is somewhat likeable whereas Hillary Clinton is not.  That may explain why Biden was able to flip so many swing states.  In 2016, Trump won PA, WI, MI and FL by less than 2 points.  A 2 point swing in all 4 states would have flipped it to Clinton.  While the EV vote margin was comfortable, it was a close election.  I must conclude that if Biden had run and won the nomination in 2016, he probably wins the election.   See.  I may be a strong Trump supporter but I am fair and will consider all the facts.  

  David Leip's Atlas for 2020 is up but it's incomplete and unofficial.  A quick perusal of Wisconsin and Michigan revealed no glaring evidence of fraud.  In both states, Biden won a couple more counties than did Clinton in 2016.  I still want to see the vote total as well the percentage in Detroit city and Milwaukee city.  I will then compare it with Baltimore city and St. Louis city.  I will also look at Baltimore city versus Philadelphia city.   How much higher was the turnout compared to 2016 in heavily Democratic areas of swing states versus non-swing states?  That's a fair question and if it is significant, it looks suspicious.

The gap in Wisconsin versus Minnesota:

Biden won Minnesota by 7 points, not 8.  Call me a liar because of 1 percent if you want.  If Wisconsin holds, that's only a 6 point gap.  In light of the George Floyd case and its aftermath, I can buy that.  

Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona-

I've heard that 120,000 votes in Fulton county (Atlanta) are "likely ineligible" due to duplicate addresses.  If true, it almost certainly flips Georgia back to Trump.  Fulton county is Dem by a 2-1 margin.  Arizona and North Carolina are still outstanding.  Even if Trump ends up winning all 3, he's still 11 EVs short.  Wisconsin won't be enough unless the Nebraska CD can be flipped.  I haven't even looked at that yet.    He would need Pennsylvania or Michigan.  

Based on preliminary analysis, I believe there was fraud but as of now, insufficient evidence exists to support the claim that it changed the outcome.  There will be at least one more post on the subject.   

Update: This is BIG.  Real Clear Politics pulled back the projections in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia.  If Trump ends up winning all 3 and holds North Carolina, he wins without Wisconsin or Michigan.  It may come down to North Carolina and Pennsylvania.  Both of them counted votes received after Election Day.

Election Analysis Part 2

 I work as an Auditor. I have been trained to spot fraud and have heard some laughable explanations for it so I know what I'm talking about here.  I hope that my readers on both sides of the spectrum will find my analysis to be fair.  I do not condone cheating to get the result that I want.  Again, if it turns out to be much ado about nothing, I will fully accept a Biden presidency as legitimate.   In this case, I DO believe that there was some level of fraud.  The question is this:  Was it a couple of anomalies that only made a difference of a few hundred votes in a couple of states or was it widespread enough to change the outcome?  I don't know yet and will investigate with an open mind once the county by county data is available on David Leip's atlas. I hope that key questions will be answered one way or the other.

Dead People Voting And Multiple States:

This happens every election and it's pretty hard to stop it completely.  A family member requests an absentee ballot on behalf of a recently deceased relative, fills it out and mails it in.  Also, you may have recently moved and could be registered in two states. Is your name automatically removed from the old state?  I honestly don't know.   In this case, I don't believe these practices are widespread.  People who were born in the 1800s that get absentee ballots?  No excuse for that.  Clean out the voter rolls every cycle.  Still, in such cases, I believe it is negligence rather than fraud.  

Vote Dumps:

I didn't see it myself because I was either asleep or on the toilet with diarrhea (yes, it happened to me) but it's pretty much accepted that the television networks showed a 100K+ gain for Biden in Michigan and Wisconsin with nothing added to Trump's total.  I won't rule out an explanation for that such as an error by the networks. Still, it would be a lot more believable if it went 80K for Biden with 20K for Trump.  As I said before, even in inner city Detroit, there is NO WAY that Biden got 100% of the vote especially not with that large of a sample size.   An entire street or neighborhood block?  Maybe, but not 100,000+ people.  

How to Investigate the Dumps:

I do know that Wisconsin shattered its previous record for voter turnout with a participation rate nearly 20 points higher than either of the Obama years.  That's a fact.  Most urban counties contain a heavily Democratic city with some Republican pockets in the suburbs.  Given that Trump did slightly better among non-white voters but slightly worse among whites, it's probably a wash overall.  One of the networks said that Clinton got 59% of the vote in Milwaukee's county in Wisconsin.  This result must be investigated.  An increase to 65% of the vote with a turnout increase in line with the rest of the state?  Yes, I can buy that.  If it's much over 70% with a massive turnout increase on a scale that was not present in the rest of the state?  Awfully suspicious.  How about Madison's county?  Clinton got 72% last time.  Again, I can buy 75+ with increased turnout but not 80+ with massive turnout. Several wards showed participation over 100 percent.  How do you explain that?  I'll also investigate Detroit (I believe that is Wayne county Michigan) looking for the same thing.  

Turnout in Non-Swing States:

A somewhat higher turnout in swing states can be expected because people know that their vote is crucial.  Still, if the turnout was 85% in Wisconsin and Michigan but only 60% in deep red Alabama and deep blue Maryland?  That's a little fishy.  I know that Baltimore city reports their votes separately from Baltimore county.  I'd be VERY interested to know those results.  In that case, I do expect a marginal improvement from Trump because the city is 80% African American with no Republican pockets.  If the turnout in Baltimore city was flat in comparison with 2016 or less than 2012, that raises SERIOUS questions.  Obviously, there is no need for shenanigans in Maryland because it was certain to go blue.  Again, a little more of an increased turnout in Detroit versus Baltimore is understandable but it better not be extreme.  How much difference warrants a flag of suspicion?  I'll have to look at both the city and the state as a whole and I'll determine that when I see it.  

Margins of Victory:

I have not memorized each state in comparison with 2016 but in both the deep red and deep blue states, there were no surprisingly close races.  Most of the Deep South and Heartland was Trump by 20+ while New England and the West Coast was Biden by 20+.  I'm pretty sure that in all of the sure Trump states, his margins were about the same, give or take 1-2 points.  In a true blue wave election, the Democrat will make at least some gains everywhere.  We're far more polarized than back in the 1980s so we won't see a 44 or 48 state landslide.  Still, if the gains in some of the states listed below are legitimate, I'd expect that Biden would at least crack 40 percent in states like Oklahoma and Alabama.  That didn't happen.  Here are the surprises:

Maine +8, New Hampshire +8, Minnesota +8, Virginia +10, Colorado +13. I didn't expect Trump to win any of these but did expect them to be at least 5 points closer.  All were thought to be somewhat in play this time around, especially NH and MN.  Colorado is now bluer than New Mexico.  True, CO and VA are trending Dem.  However, 2 of Trump's biggest gains in 2016 vs 2012 were MN and ME.   Biden reversed the gains in Maine and Minnesota but could not do so in former swing states of Ohio and Iowa.  Both went to Trump by just about the same margin.  Florida was better than 2016 despite an increased share of Democrat leaning Puerto Ricans.  Curious, but even if there was fraud here, it probably didn't make any difference.  

   Similar Electorates:

You expect that certain states that border each other and have the same type of electorate to vote within just a couple points of each other.  For example, Trump took Tennessee with 61 percent and Kentucky with 62 percent (nearly identical to '16).  Biden took Connecticut with 58 percent and Rhode Island with 59 percent (slightly better than '16).  None of these were a surprise.  If one of them was a blowout while the other was surprisingly close, that would be a flag.  

In Wisconsin and Minnesota, a case can be made in this regard.  You do expect MN to be slightly bluer than WI.  Last time, it was by just under 2.5 points, which has been pretty consistent for the last few cycles.  This time, even if the vote dump was legit, we are talking about a 7 point gap.  Curious, but not enough to be flagged.  If the dump was fraudulent, we are talking about a 9-10 point gap.  That is suspicious.  If Mississippi delivered the expected 20 point win for Trump but Alabama was decided by only 10 or vice versa, it would be pretty hard to believe. 

 EDIT: Except for Texas, which everyone could see coming, Biden did not make a dent in deep red America.  However, if NC goes blue, he flipped every swing state except Florida and expanded the Dem margin in the lean blue states.  South Carolina has always been redder than its two neighbors but if Georgia and North Carolina flipped, you would expect it be a somewhat closer.  Nope, Biden barely made a dent in South Carolina compared to 2016.  That's a little fishy.

Sharpie:

First, shame on FOX news for calling Arizona prematurely.  It's still counting and Trump has pulled to within 1 percent with about 8% left to count.    No doubt that rejected ballots could have made a difference here.  Fraud will be difficult to prove however because the counties are large and it supposedly only happened in a few precincts.  Still, with a margin of 20,000 which is closing, it doesn't take too much fraud to change the outcome.  What I will look for is unusually low turnout with few Trump votes in historically red areas.  Arizona was known to be in play this time.  Record high turnout in Wisconsin and surprisingly low turnout in Arizona would look awfully fishy given that both are swing states.

Ballots found in a Dumpster:

This happened in both Georgia and Pennsylvania.  It's no conspiracy theory.  It's a fact and the number was in the thousands.  That's just 2 that we know about.  There could have been other instances.    In Georgia, they were military ballots, which historically go 2/1 Republican.  In a state ultimately decided by the narrowest of margins, that IS fraud and definitely could have made the difference.  Georgia will have a recount so that's not over yet and neither is Arizona or Wisconsin.  

Dominion Software:

This is BIG one and I'm saving it for last.  In Oakland county, Michigan, what was initially a 3,000 vote win for Biden was actually a 3,000 vote win for Trump due to a "software glitch."  Again, this is a FACT, not a conspiracy theory!  Oakland county is relatively small but in 2016, it went to Trump with nearly 60 percent.  It was initially reported as going to Biden with 60 percent this time but the correction took it back to 2016 numbers give or take a couple points.  That's a 6,000 vote swing.  This software was used in many Michigan counties as well as 26 other states, INCLUDING ALMOST EVERY CRITICAL SWING STATE!!  A one time mistake or did this happen elsewhere?  If it's the latter and the glitch always benefitted Democrats, it is MOST DEFINITELY FRAUD!  That may explain the surprisingly easy wins in the 5 states listed above.  I will look at the rural counties in the swing states.  If any of them flipped massively to Biden compared to 2016, it's a flag.  Sad fact is that machines can be programmed to reject a small percentage of votes and if it's only 1 out of 50 statewide, it probably won't even be caught.  Could this have been done on purpose?  Consider the lengths that the Left went to get Trump out of office.  I would not put anything past them.  I've also heard that the man who designed the software is a Democrat donor.  Yes, this does border on conspiracy territory so I won't make any judgments yet.  That will wait until my investigation is complete.  

Trump Path to 270:

He's at 217 now when Alaska is called for him.  You can definitely make the case that Trump legitimately won both Georgia and Arizona and he may yet do so.  That takes him up to 244.  A win in the Wisconsin recount is possible, which makes it 254.  North Carolina is still outstanding but I'm afraid it will be stolen by late votes.  That would be a 269-269 tie, which would go to Biden in the House.  If Trump could win either Michigan or Pennsylvania, he would not need NC.  Both states smell fishy to me.  Was it stolen?  I'm trying to be fair minded so I'm not jumping to conclusions yet.  Odds that Trump will ultimately prevail are slim but I still want him to push this.  If nothing else, it will expose at least some of the fraud and irregularities.  Let the truth come out.  No matter what it is, I will accept it.     

2020 Election Thoughts

 Last year, before the pandemic and civil unrest, I predicted a Trump win with about 290-300 EV with the final result determined by the Rust Belt.  Whoever won the most EV from Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota would likely be the winner but I figured Trump could do it with either Pennsylvania alone or Michigan plus an upset in New Hampshire or Nevada.

First, let's take a look at where I was correct:

-Texas would be safe for at least 1 more cycle.  I figured about a 5-6 point win and that's just about what we got.  Watch out in 2024.  It could be razor thin without improvements in the Hispanic vote.  

-Florida is reliably more Republican than the national average so in a 50/50 election, Trump would have the edge.  He ended up doing a little better than I expected on the strength of the Latino vote.  Hispanics are not a monolith.  South Florida does not have many Mexican Americans and Latinos of Cuban and South American descent are more likely to vote Republican. They've seen what has happened with socialism in Cuba and Venezuela.  

-Wisconsin and Michigan would be very tight and could go either way.  I was hopeful that the Republican trend from 2012-16 would continue into a comfortable 2020 win but did not count on it.  I predicted that Trump would win one and lose one but liked his chances best in Wisconsin as of last year.

-Trump would make small gains in the Hispanic and African American communities but predictions of a massive uptick in those percentages were wildly over-optimistic.  According to exit polls, despite the endless drumbeat of him being called a racist, Trump got the highest share of the non-white vote of any Republican since 1960 (26%).  Trump got 1/8 of the black vote (18 percent of men/8 percent of women) and just under 1/3 of Asians and Hispanics, which also was marginally better than 2016. The black vote will not be 90% going forward either as Trump did considerably better among young black voters.   He did slightly WORSE among white voters, which was a surprise to me.  More on that later.

Now where I was wrong:

I thought Trump would have a shot in several states that went to Clinton by close margins in 2016 such as Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nevada.  Nope.  Only Nevada was close this time around.  I find that to be curious and I'd like to see the county by county results.  Did Biden rack up more votes in urban areas or did Trump under-perform in rural areas?    

- I predicted that many of the Sun Belt upper middle class suburban voters who voted for Romney in 2012 but Clinton in 2016 would come back to Trump in 2020.  I also felt that most Never Trumpers would get on board as I know many reluctant Trump voters in 2016 who became enthusiastic this time around.  This, along with the slightly better showing among black voters, would shore up Georgia and North Carolina.  I expected 5 point wins in both states.  WRONG!  I never thought Florida would be redder than Georgia and North Carolina but that does indeed appear to be the case.  

While Trump has won over most white working class voters, he is losing the college educated suburban types.  I'm not sure if this trend can be reversed either and I'll explain why now.   An outsider candidate with the same ideology but a more genteel personality would be just as hated by the Left AND the Establishment.  I do believe that if Trump softened some of his rough edges, he could do a little better among suburban women.  However, I am convinced that with the Never Trump establishment, it is his anti-globalist and non-interventionist ideology rather than his character and demeanor that is the problem. 

Here are some other reasons:

Sympathy for Black Lives Matter.  I blame the media for this.  I could write a whole post about why this is troubling to me but let's leave that for now.  Some people bought into to the notion that Trump is this horrible racist and decided to vote against that.  Many still believe that he called Neo-Nazi very fine people even though that media lie has been thoroughly debunked.

Comfort with the Establishment.  These voters are well educated and upper middle class for the most part.  They are doing well economically and do not want to see a shake up within the system.  Thus, they prefer an establishment Democrat to Trump.  This time around, the hard core Never Trumpers did not vote 3rd party.  They went to Biden.  I did not see that coming.  

Policy Differences- Like it or not and no matter what happens with the recount, the Trump ideology is the new direction of the Republican party.  Although a minority, I do know a few people who would prefer to go back to the neo-con foreign policy of Bush and McCain.  All of them are well educated, white suburban voters.  To me, it's a good thing that the party has changed in this regard and it's not a winning formula post-Iraq.  I've had ENOUGH of endless wars and pointless foreign intervention.  The fact that Trump has come out so strongly against those polices appears to have permanently lost him the neocons.  Still, I never expected them to overlook the common ground on the domestic side and go to Biden.  The Cindy McCain endorsement may have cost him Arizona.  

Possible Reversal of this Trend- Let the Dems nominate a hard left candidate next time.  Those neo-cons and Establishment types might support Clinton or Biden.  How about Bernie Sanders and his ilk who will push for radical reforms?  I don't think so.  To me, that's the only way that wealthy suburban voters from metro Charlotte and Atlanta will come back to the GOP.

Possible Voter Fraud:

Yes, I will address this issue.  I went to bed around 11 PM (midnight Eastern) feeling pretty confident.  Even with a loss in Arizona, he only needed one more state assuming that his leads would hold in GA, NC and PA.  Nevada had not come in at all but both Michigan and Wisconsin were looking very good.  I remembered that in 2016 in both states, the lead stayed about the same all the way through.  This time, there were dumps of over 130 THOUSAND votes.  ALL FOR BIDEN!  I don't care where those votes came from, I just can't believe it.  Even in the poorest neighborhoods of inner-city Detroit, there has got to be a few rogue Trump voters especially when he got 18% of black men overall.  It might be 1 out of 50 but they certainly do exist.  Perhaps there is an explanation but this needs to be investigated.

I recall seeing that in Wisconsin, the number of votes actually exceeded the number of registered voters.  That proved to be untrue but nevertheless, the state shattered its previous record in terms of turnout by nearly 20 percent.  Nearly 85 percent participated and you can bet that those voter rolls contain people that died within the past year.  Yes, there were also a few reports of voters who were born in the 1800s even though no such person is alive today.   Indeed, although statewide there was not an overage of votes versus registrants, there were several precincts that were so.  I don't see how you can justify that or at least not be suspicious. 

In Arizona, there are reports that Sharpies handed out by poll workers caused ballots to be rejected by the scanner.  If true, they had better count those by hand.  There are also reports of questionable counting in PA, GA and NC.  Why would they stop counting in the middle of the night then announce the results several days later?  I once had to pay a late fee on my mortgage because it was not RECEIVED on time even though the postmark would have revealed that it was sent before the due date.  The same should hold true for vote counting.  

Trump was facing a very difficult climate with the COVID and civil unrest.  If he lost fair and square, I'm perfectly willing to accept it and move on.  I do have several questions that I will investigate on my own with an objective frame of mind:  What was the voter turnout in the swing states versus the solid red and blue?  How did it compare with 2016?  Did Biden's gains all come from one or two very blue counties thanks to a massive increase in turnout versus 2016?  Was the increased voter turnout concentrated in blue areas or did red counties also see a similar increase in turnout?   Again, I hope the truth comes out one way or the other but I have reason to be suspicious.  Yes, I'd be willing to retract this if it turns out to be a load of bunk.  I will reveal my analysis in a separate post.

Training 11/2-11/8 + A Discovery

 Discovery:

I can handle candy, alcohol and now Gatorade and fruit juice but anything with sugar AND carbonation is going to be a HELL NO!  Again, on a long drive, I kinda had to cheat on caffeine to make it home in one day. I made it 10 days clean so a small indiscretion should not hurt much, right?  Just don't make a habit of it.   I found that the ill-effects of lightly carbonated but highly caffeinated Red Bull and KickStart were noticeable but not severe.  On the other hand, just one big sip of non-caffeinated but highly carbonated Sprite was a BIG NO NO!  I must conclude that sugar is okay by itself, which is why Gatorade is tolerated.  Carbonation is also okay by itself.  I can handle alcoholic seltzers with no problem.  Sugar with carbonation with or without caffeine?  Poison.  

Another interesting development is less dependence of Probiotics.  Lately, 4 pills can give me a boost of about 30 seconds per mile give or take a few seconds.  Yes, that's still enough to be considered significant but it is not a night and day difference and I bet that I can handle 3-5 days off without a collapse, just like all the other pills.  That would be a big victory.  

11/2- Day 5 clean and that's usually the day of the secondary collapse.  It began yesterday afternoon when I required a long nap and never felt fully awake the rest of the day.  

AM- 2 miles on Lakeshore in 24:02 (12:01 pace).  1st mile with no Probiotics was a 12:17.  Normally, I expect big improvements after the key pill.  I thought I'd be at least in the 9s.  Not so this time.  I got a small boost to an 11:45 (MINUS 32).  Significant but hardly night and day.  

PM- 1 mile on Montreat at lunch.  Time is down to 10:38 on no additional treatment.  Tomorrow is a big day.  I expect to be a lot faster but if the gap remains small, the Probiotics have done the job.  Either I need a new treatment (ugh) or I will continue to improve by avoiding the forbidden drinks.  Let's hope so.  I want to see a gap of no more than 60 seconds per mile tomorrow.

Distance=3.0

11/3-AM- Montreat intervals.  Opened with a 3:07 and closed with a 2:55.  That's a gap of just 36 seconds per mile with BOTH TRS and Probiotics.  Very pleased to see that.  It's still enough to be significant but I won't face debilitating weakness if I forget to take it.  Added a cool.  Next week, I want to see if I can make it 3 days without treatments.

PM- Repeated the 2 miles on Lakeshore and my time is down to 17:34 (8:47 pace) plus a cool.  Just about where I expected to be at this stage (Day 6).  Another interesting note was my splits of 9:02-8:32 and I did NOT take any treatments during the run.  Perhaps the improvement in the morning has as much to do with getting warmed up as the treatments.

Distance=4.0

11/4- Head is kinda busy today but did surprisingly well.  Only had time for 2 on Lakeshore.  Hoped to do 3 or 4 but barely made it back in time as it was.  Time is down to 15:24 (7:42 pace) and I'd almost certainly be under the Mendoza line for 3.  Splits are evening up as well.  I was 7:46 at the turnaround then finished with a 7:38.  Day 7 clean and I did this without treatments.  I'll go ahead and skip until Friday afternoon and hope I don't collapse.  If I do, no big deal.  I'll bounce back quickly and will not cheat.

Distance=2.0

11/5- Again, planned to do 3-4 this morning and had to settle for 2 due to a crash.  Finished in 19:50 (9:55 pace) with splits of 8:55-10:55.  Clearly evident from the beginning that I had lost a step but still felt reasonably well through 0.75 miles. Collapsed after that.    No cause for alarm.  This was not unexpected.  I can make it 1 day without detox and probiotics but not 2.  I did not cheat and expect to bounce back quickly.  8 days clean.

Distance=2.0

11/6-AM- Finally managed to do 3 on Lakeshore in 24:27 (8:09 pace).  Nice bounce back from yesterday.  I was 12:30 at the half and finished with an 11:57.

PM- Nice sunset run at Veteran's Park.  2 miles in 15:54 (7:57 pace).  Probably translates to 15:34ish on Lakeshore.  Even pace and felt comfortable all the way.

Distance=5.0

11/7- Hoped to run 6 miles today but had to settle for 1 in a time over 10 minutes.  The culprit was alcohol.  Apparently, I cannot handle it after early evidence showed that I could.  I did drink 3 beers on Election night then 1 beer each of the next 3 days.  I was okay last night but it was immediately apparent early in the morning today.  Another What The ______!

Distance=1.0

11/8- Unplanned rest day.

-15 miles on the week

Training 10/15-10/25

10/15- I tried to get by without Glutathione and that lasted about 5 days then it turned disastrous.  I cheated on caffeine to get through it.  I kinda had to because I was on the road.  Did 1 Mile in 11:15

Distance=1.0

10/16- Another Mile at Montreat and my time is down to 10:17.  Added a cool.

Distance=2.0

10/17- Intervals.

Opener- 2:49 

TRS- 2:31

Probiotics- 2:00

Very pleased with the closer.  Gap remains large at 2:27 per mile.

10/18- A 6 minute pace for 1/3 mile does not translate well for longer distances.  Today was my longest run in 2 weeks.  I managed 3 miles on Lakeshore in 26:42 (8:54 pace).  1st half was 13:45, 2nd half was 12:57.  Don't be fooled by the negative split.  On race day, I felt okay through 6.5 then collapsed.  Today, I probably last about 5 miles before the collapse.  Daily incremental improvements.  I'm 3 days clean on the diet and am taking plenty of Probiotics.

Distance=3.0

10/19- The flip flop flip.  Woke up with intolerance to probiotics.  By the afternoon, I had an insatiable need FOR them.  Opened with a 2:38.5 lap with nothing.  Then after the probiotics, I managed only a 4:38.  By the afternoon, I was doing half lap intervals.  I opened with a 1:57 (11:42 pace) but once I had taken the full dose, I was all the way down to a 1:11 (7:06 pace).  MINUS 4:36.  This is NUTS!  Day 4 clean.  I was tempted to cheat today but I've stayed strong.

Distance=2.0

10/20- Opened with a 3:22 (10:06 pace).  Actually thought it would be worse.  Improved to a 2:12 (6:36 pace) with TRS and Probiotics.  MINUS 3:30.  Unfortunately, I had nothing in the real workout.  2 miles on Lakeshore in 20:57 (10:28 pace)

Distance=3.0

10/21- Opener improved to 2:51 (8:33 pace).  NO time for a closer but figure it'd be close to 2:00.  Gap is closing but it still around 2:30 per mile.  Real workout improved as well.  Repeated the 2 miler and improved to 17:59 (8:59 pace).  Added a cool.  In the evening, I learned that I still need at least 5 sprays of TRS to get the beneficial effect of Probiotics.  Improved but a long way to go.  6 days clean on the diet with no real temptations recently.

Distance=3.0

10/22- No intervals.  Went straight for the real workout.  Made it 5 miles on Lakeshore in a time of 43:54 (8:47 pace).  Last mile was a semi-respectable 8:19.  Again, don't be fooled by that.  My split at 5 miles on race day was very similar to this and I still felt comfortable but 2 miles later, I was done.  

Distance= 5.0

10/23- Ran only the opener once again.  No closer.  Time was down to 2:26 (7:18 pace).  I figure the closer would be around 1:56 so the gap is closing but remains significant at 90 seconds per mile. A closer would have hurt me in the real workout.  Lakeshore 3 in 24:17 (8:06 pace).  Pleased to get under 25 but came up short of the stretch goal of 24 (Mendoza line).  Hit halfway in 12:12 and thought I had a shot given the recent history of negative splits but the legs went dead just before 2 miles.  Rebounded a bit in the last quarter mile but it was not nearly enough.

Distance=3.5

Reaction: This is now 8 days off sugar and caffeine.  I've progressed well but have a LONG way to go.  I need to get under the Mendoza line WITHOUT treatment for at least 1 day and I can't quite do it with treatment.  I bet I can tomorrow.  Still, no real temptation to cheat.  Can I make it 2 more weeks?  I should be able to handle the occasional treat but I could see a daily habit being a problem.

10/24- Planned rest day.

10/25- Tried to run in the morning with no treatments and it wasn't as bad as I expected.  2 miles on the beach in 17:44 (8:52 pace) with a strong negative split and no imminent collapse.  1st half-9:07, 2nd half- 8:37.  Figure, I'm probably mid-26 for 3 miles, which is within 60 per mile of my time with treatments.  Next, I want to see what I can do after a FULL day off it.

Distance=2.5

-25 miles total

Largest Cities and Capitols

 For the record, it is NOT yet a goal of mine to visit the largest city and/or capitol city of every state but I'm curious as to how far I've gotten.  How to define the largest city can be up to interpretation based on city proper population or the metro area as a whole.  I may be wrong on a few of these but I'll give it my best shot. To qualify, I must have actually stopped in the city for a meal or walking tour.  Driving past it on the interstate does not count.  Here it is listing the capitol first followed by the largest city:

1.Alabama- Montgomery- YES.  Birmingham- YES

2.Alaska- Juneau- NO, Anchorage- YES

3.Arkansas- Little Rock- YES

4.Arizona- Phoenix- YES

5. California- Sacramento- YES, Los Angeles- YES

6. Colorado- Denver- YES

7.Connecticut- Hartford- NO, New Haven- YES

8.Delaware- Dover- NO, Wilmington- YES

9.Florida- Tallahassee- YES, Miami- YES

10.Georgia- Atlanta- YES

11.Hawaii- Honolulu- NO

12.Idaho- Boise- NO

13.Indiana- Indianapolis- YES

14.Illinois- Springfield- YES, Chicago- YES

15. Iowa- Des Moines- NO

16.Kansas- Topeka- NO, Wichita- NO

17.Kentucky- Frankfurt- YES, Louisville- YES

18.Louisiana- Baton Rouge- YES, New Orleans- YES

19.Maine- Augusta- NO, Portland-YES

20.Maryland- Annapolis- YES, Baltimore- YES

21.Massachusetts- Boston- YES

22.Michigan- Lansing- NO, Detroit- YES

23.Minnesota- St. Paul- NO, Minneapolis- YES

24.Mississippi- Jackson- YES

25.Missouri- Jefferson City- NO, St. Louis- YES

26. Montana- Helena- YES, Billings- NO

27.Nebraska- Lincoln-NO, Omaha- NO

28.Nevada- Carson City- YES, Las Vegas- YES

29.New Hampshire- Concord- YES, Manchester- YES

30. New Jersey- Trenton- YES, Newark- YES

31.New Mexico- Santa Fe-YES, Albuquerque- YES

32.New York- Albany- YES, New York- YES

33. North Carolina- Raleigh- NO, Charlotte- YES

34. North Dakota- Bismarck- NO, Fargo- YES

35. Ohio- Columbus- YES, Cincinnati- YES

36. Oklahoma- Oklahoma City- YES

37. Oregon- Salem- NO, Portland- YES

38. Pennsylvania- Harrisburg- YES, Philadelphia- YES

39. Rhode Island- Providence- YES

40. South Carolina- Columbia- YES, Charleston- YES

41. South Dakota- Pierre- NO, Sioux Falls- NO

42. Tennessee- Nashville- YES, Memphis- YES

43. Texas- Austin- YES, Houston and Dallas- YES

44. Utah- Salt Lake City- YES

45. Virginia- Richmond- YES, Norfolk- YES

46. Vermont- Montpelier- YES, Burlington- YES

47. Washington- Olympia- NO, Seattle- YES

48. Wisconsin- Madison- YES, Milwaukee- NO

49. West Virginia- Charleston- YES

50. Wyoming- Cheyenne- YES

- State Capitols- 33.  

Largest Cities- 42

Cities that I may visit in the future include Raleigh, Boise, Honolulu and Dover.  I'm close.  

OKC/Little Rock/Memphis Trip Report

 This was almost an impromtu trip.  Hurricane Delta struck Loosiana and though Birmingham is far enough inland that there will be no damage, the weekend was sure to be rainy and depressing.  After some deliberation, I chose Oklahoma over Florida due to a better weather forecast.  It proved to be a good call.  I left after work on Friday and as planned, I got beyond Memphis and into eastern Arkansas.  I ran into some light rain the next day but once I got past Little Rock, the skies began to clear.  As I approached Oklahoma, it was a beautiful cloudless day with temps around 80 with the leaves just beginning to change.  

My only stop on the way was Mount Magazine, the highest point in Arkansas.  The hiking trail to the summit was nothing special but nearby overlooks were beautiful.  I arrived in Oklahoma City  around 4 PM the next day and took a walk to the bombing memorial and museum.  As expected, it was well done and delivered a strong emotional hit.  In most cases, I am against the death penalty but in circumstances like this where 168 people were killed and 700 others injured, I will make an exception.  I caught a couple nice skyline views on the way back.  After some rather mediocre pizza, I went out for a drink at Toby Keith's I Love This Bar in Bricktown.  There was a canal with a waterway so it reminded me a bit of a small San Antonio.  Overall, I liked the vibe in OKC and found it preferably to Tulsa but don't think I'd want to live there.  Too far from both the beaches and mountains.  Dallas is the only other nearby large city.  On the plus side, the climate is a bit drier with more sunshine but it's also vulnerable to a Spring tornado.  

Next, I headed east back towards Arkansas with one stop at a lake then took a hike up to the summit of Hot Springs National Park.  That was pretty cool but the real highlight was Pinnacle Mountain just outside of Little Rock.  It was a very steep and strenuous hike up through boulders.  I arrived at the top about 30 minutes before sunset and caught some epic views of the lake and nearby mountains.  I headed down none too early as it would have been very unsafe in the dark.  I spent the night in Little Rock where I got a drink and chatted a bit with the bartender who also enjoys hiking.  The next morning, I took a walk down by the river and caught a nice shot of the skyline before heading to Memphis. 

 

First stop in Memphis was the Lorraine Motel where MLK was assassinated.  The motel has since been converted into a Civil Rights museum.  My reaction was the same as with the others.  I am dumbfounded and horrified that black people were mistreated so badly but am proud of the progress that we have made as a nation.  I enjoyed some good BBQ on Beale Street then headed to the pyramid for another cool skyline view.  The trip home in the dark was a bit dicey but I made it safely.     

South Dakota Road Trip Report

 10/1

This was my first flight since February.  I found the Birmingham airport to be deserted.  All restaurants were closed except for the Chick- Fil-A but major airports such as Chicago and Dallas were much busier.  At any rate, the flight and the connection went without a hitch and I was on the ground in Rapid City, South Dakota before 3 PM.  It was my 2nd time here overall but my first visit since 1988.  I picked up my rental car (Mitsubishi SUV) and hit the road going northwest.  First stop was Devil's Tower just across the border in Wyoming then made it to a nice lake at Keyhole State Park just before sunset.  I spent the night in Sundance, Wyoming and dinner was a decent Ribeye steak.  

10/2

I took a short detour in the morning just to cut through a small corner of Montana.  I like to take pictures of as many Welcome signs as possible but that's not always feasible if you fly into the center of a large state.  From there, it was a scenic ride on US-14 A (Spearfish Canyon Byway).  Early October is a good time to visit South Dakota.  Leaves are just beginning to change.  Mornings often dawn chilly but it warms up quickly to the 60s to near 70 by the afternoon with a good probability of sunshine.  Lunch was in the Old West town of Deadwood.  I was not overly impressed here.  It's got lots of bars and casinos but it was largely empty, which is a good thing if you are afraid of COVID.  I ended up with an overpriced and rather mediocre burger then was back on the road. 

 I got a brief sample of Needles Highway, which was AWESOME then went to the unfinished Crazy Horse Monument to check out the race course.  From there, it was on to Badlands National Park, roughly 1.5 hours away.  That was absolutely PHENOMENAL!  I'd say that it rivaled the Grand Canyon in terms of it beautiful rock formations.  I wanted to drive through it just before sunset and timed it well.  

Unfortunately, the trip back to Rapid City was a dark and lonely state highway.  I was running a bit low on fuel and wanted to get back to the Interstate because I figured it would be safer albeit a bit longer.  BAD call there.  Several deer ran out right in front of me and there was nothing I could do.  I did manage to slow down a bit but swerving to avoid one deer meant that I hit another one or maybe two.  There was damage to the front of my car but it was not disabled nor was I injured so it could have been worse.  My insurance should cover this but I'm sure it will be a pain in the ass to deal with them.  They had better not raise my rates because I did nothing wrong.  Nobody could have avoided all of those deer.  This left me shaken so I was not up for a drink on the town that night.  

10/3-

I saved the best for last.  Full Needles Hwy and of course Mt. Rushmore.  I recommend tourists to take Iron Mountain Road from the south then 244 East so you can catch several views of the monument from the road before you arrive at the actual park.  The mountain views on Needles Hwy reminded me a bit of the Blue Ridge Mountains but the rock formations were out of this world.  Mount Rushmore?  Words can't describe that.  

10/4-

Race day.  Not going to say much about this one.  Though net downhill, I'd say it was a fair course because of the 5,000+ foot elevation.  It had some tough climbs in the first 5K on the grounds of the park and altitude hills are much tougher than at sea level.  Miles 4-6 were a nice steady decline.  I ran this section pretty well and passed halfway in 57:30, on pace for a 1:55, which would have beaten expectations.  The trail leveled off after this and I went from feeling reasonably well to flat out awful in a matter of seconds.  I was still on pace for a sub-2 through the end of 8.1 miles but the last 5 miles were a death march.  I went with a run .20/walk .05 strategy, which was probably the best thing to do to finish safely.  My pace on the runs were only 10-11 minutes and my walking was more like 18 minutes so you can guess my finish time.  As I said in my previous post, if this had been 2 days later, the outcome would have been a lot better.  I took my time going back to the airport and the trip home also went without a hitch.

Still a fun trip overall but the deer and bad race did put a bit of a damper on it.  I've only got 4 more states to go.  I will not run half marathons after that unless my health improves.  The remaining states are Maryland, Minnesota, Maine then I will finish in Hawaii.