Third Party Candidates

 This was a pretty significant omission on my part so it deserves a separate post.  Third party candidates totaled 6 percent of the vote in 2016 but just 2 percent in 2020.  Now, I've considered the 4 percent of the electorate that switched from 3rd party to a major candidate this time.  I am betting that they tilted pretty strongly towards Biden.  If it was by a 3-1 margin, that costs Trump 2 points in the national popular vote but my best guess is a 1-2 point swing for the Dem.  Biden was a flawed candidate and a gaffe machine but he is somewhat likeable whereas Hillary Clinton is not.  That may explain why Biden was able to flip so many swing states.  In 2016, Trump won PA, WI, MI and FL by less than 2 points.  A 2 point swing in all 4 states would have flipped it to Clinton.  While the EV vote margin was comfortable, it was a close election.  I must conclude that if Biden had run and won the nomination in 2016, he probably wins the election.   See.  I may be a strong Trump supporter but I am fair and will consider all the facts.  

  David Leip's Atlas for 2020 is up but it's incomplete and unofficial.  A quick perusal of Wisconsin and Michigan revealed no glaring evidence of fraud.  In both states, Biden won a couple more counties than did Clinton in 2016.  I still want to see the vote total as well the percentage in Detroit city and Milwaukee city.  I will then compare it with Baltimore city and St. Louis city.  I will also look at Baltimore city versus Philadelphia city.   How much higher was the turnout compared to 2016 in heavily Democratic areas of swing states versus non-swing states?  That's a fair question and if it is significant, it looks suspicious.

The gap in Wisconsin versus Minnesota:

Biden won Minnesota by 7 points, not 8.  Call me a liar because of 1 percent if you want.  If Wisconsin holds, that's only a 6 point gap.  In light of the George Floyd case and its aftermath, I can buy that.  

Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona-

I've heard that 120,000 votes in Fulton county (Atlanta) are "likely ineligible" due to duplicate addresses.  If true, it almost certainly flips Georgia back to Trump.  Fulton county is Dem by a 2-1 margin.  Arizona and North Carolina are still outstanding.  Even if Trump ends up winning all 3, he's still 11 EVs short.  Wisconsin won't be enough unless the Nebraska CD can be flipped.  I haven't even looked at that yet.    He would need Pennsylvania or Michigan.  

Based on preliminary analysis, I believe there was fraud but as of now, insufficient evidence exists to support the claim that it changed the outcome.  There will be at least one more post on the subject.   

Update: This is BIG.  Real Clear Politics pulled back the projections in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia.  If Trump ends up winning all 3 and holds North Carolina, he wins without Wisconsin or Michigan.  It may come down to North Carolina and Pennsylvania.  Both of them counted votes received after Election Day.