Health News

 Interesting.  Once again, I made it 10 days without any sugared or alcoholic drinks but I still crashed.  This time, the culprit was Sulfur containing amino acids such as Taurine and Glutathione.  Not very long ago, I needed the latter and could not go an extended period without it.  At the same time, my intolerance to sugared and alcoholic drinks DISAPPEARED!  I won't be stupid but even if I had a daily habit, it should NOT cost me more than about 20 seconds per mile and a couple rare uses should have negligible effects.  These surprise relapses are par for the course and all of my readers know it.  My only explanation is that toxins are being eliminated one at a time.  When one layer is peeled off, another is revealed.  Thus, the toxins that are on the top layer will trigger different reactions.  Until ALL the toxins are out, I don't see any changes forthcoming.  I will be subjected to crashes that cannot be predicted.  

  Several days later, I took just a trace of Glutathione.  I expected it to trigger a reaction but it didn't.  I did not try a full pill so that could have been different.  I would not be surprised at all if the situation reverses itself and I end up with an intense NEED for Glutathione at some point in the near-future.  To protect against that, I may simply take it occasionally.  Suppose that I take it maybe 2 times per week, that MAY protect against both need and intolerance.  

As for the rest of the pills, I can get by about 5 days without all of them EXCEPT the TRS and Probiotics. With those 2, I can make it 1 day but not 2 and will not rebound all the way with a single dose.  Again, in theory, I am on a path to getting this under control.  Again, I will not get my hopes up.  As for training, I'll just stick to junk runs for the next couple of weeks then try to get back to steady training after Thanksgiving.  There will be no races until at least February and I have a feeling that those will be canceled.  I'm not real confident about a Maryland half in April either.  Best hope is a small town race.  Big cities tend to be strict when it comes to permits.  

Here's what I need:

Maryland, Minnesota, Maine, Hawaii.  I signed up for Salisbury, Maryland but at this point, I'd choose any race to get this done.  It's a fairly small race so it has a chance.   

Third Party Candidates

 This was a pretty significant omission on my part so it deserves a separate post.  Third party candidates totaled 6 percent of the vote in 2016 but just 2 percent in 2020.  Now, I've considered the 4 percent of the electorate that switched from 3rd party to a major candidate this time.  I am betting that they tilted pretty strongly towards Biden.  If it was by a 3-1 margin, that costs Trump 2 points in the national popular vote but my best guess is a 1-2 point swing for the Dem.  Biden was a flawed candidate and a gaffe machine but he is somewhat likeable whereas Hillary Clinton is not.  That may explain why Biden was able to flip so many swing states.  In 2016, Trump won PA, WI, MI and FL by less than 2 points.  A 2 point swing in all 4 states would have flipped it to Clinton.  While the EV vote margin was comfortable, it was a close election.  I must conclude that if Biden had run and won the nomination in 2016, he probably wins the election.   See.  I may be a strong Trump supporter but I am fair and will consider all the facts.  

  David Leip's Atlas for 2020 is up but it's incomplete and unofficial.  A quick perusal of Wisconsin and Michigan revealed no glaring evidence of fraud.  In both states, Biden won a couple more counties than did Clinton in 2016.  I still want to see the vote total as well the percentage in Detroit city and Milwaukee city.  I will then compare it with Baltimore city and St. Louis city.  I will also look at Baltimore city versus Philadelphia city.   How much higher was the turnout compared to 2016 in heavily Democratic areas of swing states versus non-swing states?  That's a fair question and if it is significant, it looks suspicious.

The gap in Wisconsin versus Minnesota:

Biden won Minnesota by 7 points, not 8.  Call me a liar because of 1 percent if you want.  If Wisconsin holds, that's only a 6 point gap.  In light of the George Floyd case and its aftermath, I can buy that.  

Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona-

I've heard that 120,000 votes in Fulton county (Atlanta) are "likely ineligible" due to duplicate addresses.  If true, it almost certainly flips Georgia back to Trump.  Fulton county is Dem by a 2-1 margin.  Arizona and North Carolina are still outstanding.  Even if Trump ends up winning all 3, he's still 11 EVs short.  Wisconsin won't be enough unless the Nebraska CD can be flipped.  I haven't even looked at that yet.    He would need Pennsylvania or Michigan.  

Based on preliminary analysis, I believe there was fraud but as of now, insufficient evidence exists to support the claim that it changed the outcome.  There will be at least one more post on the subject.   

Update: This is BIG.  Real Clear Politics pulled back the projections in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia.  If Trump ends up winning all 3 and holds North Carolina, he wins without Wisconsin or Michigan.  It may come down to North Carolina and Pennsylvania.  Both of them counted votes received after Election Day.

Election Analysis Part 2

 I work as an Auditor. I have been trained to spot fraud and have heard some laughable explanations for it so I know what I'm talking about here.  I hope that my readers on both sides of the spectrum will find my analysis to be fair.  I do not condone cheating to get the result that I want.  Again, if it turns out to be much ado about nothing, I will fully accept a Biden presidency as legitimate.   In this case, I DO believe that there was some level of fraud.  The question is this:  Was it a couple of anomalies that only made a difference of a few hundred votes in a couple of states or was it widespread enough to change the outcome?  I don't know yet and will investigate with an open mind once the county by county data is available on David Leip's atlas. I hope that key questions will be answered one way or the other.

Dead People Voting And Multiple States:

This happens every election and it's pretty hard to stop it completely.  A family member requests an absentee ballot on behalf of a recently deceased relative, fills it out and mails it in.  Also, you may have recently moved and could be registered in two states. Is your name automatically removed from the old state?  I honestly don't know.   In this case, I don't believe these practices are widespread.  People who were born in the 1800s that get absentee ballots?  No excuse for that.  Clean out the voter rolls every cycle.  Still, in such cases, I believe it is negligence rather than fraud.  

Vote Dumps:

I didn't see it myself because I was either asleep or on the toilet with diarrhea (yes, it happened to me) but it's pretty much accepted that the television networks showed a 100K+ gain for Biden in Michigan and Wisconsin with nothing added to Trump's total.  I won't rule out an explanation for that such as an error by the networks. Still, it would be a lot more believable if it went 80K for Biden with 20K for Trump.  As I said before, even in inner city Detroit, there is NO WAY that Biden got 100% of the vote especially not with that large of a sample size.   An entire street or neighborhood block?  Maybe, but not 100,000+ people.  

How to Investigate the Dumps:

I do know that Wisconsin shattered its previous record for voter turnout with a participation rate nearly 20 points higher than either of the Obama years.  That's a fact.  Most urban counties contain a heavily Democratic city with some Republican pockets in the suburbs.  Given that Trump did slightly better among non-white voters but slightly worse among whites, it's probably a wash overall.  One of the networks said that Clinton got 59% of the vote in Milwaukee's county in Wisconsin.  This result must be investigated.  An increase to 65% of the vote with a turnout increase in line with the rest of the state?  Yes, I can buy that.  If it's much over 70% with a massive turnout increase on a scale that was not present in the rest of the state?  Awfully suspicious.  How about Madison's county?  Clinton got 72% last time.  Again, I can buy 75+ with increased turnout but not 80+ with massive turnout. Several wards showed participation over 100 percent.  How do you explain that?  I'll also investigate Detroit (I believe that is Wayne county Michigan) looking for the same thing.  

Turnout in Non-Swing States:

A somewhat higher turnout in swing states can be expected because people know that their vote is crucial.  Still, if the turnout was 85% in Wisconsin and Michigan but only 60% in deep red Alabama and deep blue Maryland?  That's a little fishy.  I know that Baltimore city reports their votes separately from Baltimore county.  I'd be VERY interested to know those results.  In that case, I do expect a marginal improvement from Trump because the city is 80% African American with no Republican pockets.  If the turnout in Baltimore city was flat in comparison with 2016 or less than 2012, that raises SERIOUS questions.  Obviously, there is no need for shenanigans in Maryland because it was certain to go blue.  Again, a little more of an increased turnout in Detroit versus Baltimore is understandable but it better not be extreme.  How much difference warrants a flag of suspicion?  I'll have to look at both the city and the state as a whole and I'll determine that when I see it.  

Margins of Victory:

I have not memorized each state in comparison with 2016 but in both the deep red and deep blue states, there were no surprisingly close races.  Most of the Deep South and Heartland was Trump by 20+ while New England and the West Coast was Biden by 20+.  I'm pretty sure that in all of the sure Trump states, his margins were about the same, give or take 1-2 points.  In a true blue wave election, the Democrat will make at least some gains everywhere.  We're far more polarized than back in the 1980s so we won't see a 44 or 48 state landslide.  Still, if the gains in some of the states listed below are legitimate, I'd expect that Biden would at least crack 40 percent in states like Oklahoma and Alabama.  That didn't happen.  Here are the surprises:

Maine +8, New Hampshire +8, Minnesota +8, Virginia +10, Colorado +13. I didn't expect Trump to win any of these but did expect them to be at least 5 points closer.  All were thought to be somewhat in play this time around, especially NH and MN.  Colorado is now bluer than New Mexico.  True, CO and VA are trending Dem.  However, 2 of Trump's biggest gains in 2016 vs 2012 were MN and ME.   Biden reversed the gains in Maine and Minnesota but could not do so in former swing states of Ohio and Iowa.  Both went to Trump by just about the same margin.  Florida was better than 2016 despite an increased share of Democrat leaning Puerto Ricans.  Curious, but even if there was fraud here, it probably didn't make any difference.  

   Similar Electorates:

You expect that certain states that border each other and have the same type of electorate to vote within just a couple points of each other.  For example, Trump took Tennessee with 61 percent and Kentucky with 62 percent (nearly identical to '16).  Biden took Connecticut with 58 percent and Rhode Island with 59 percent (slightly better than '16).  None of these were a surprise.  If one of them was a blowout while the other was surprisingly close, that would be a flag.  

In Wisconsin and Minnesota, a case can be made in this regard.  You do expect MN to be slightly bluer than WI.  Last time, it was by just under 2.5 points, which has been pretty consistent for the last few cycles.  This time, even if the vote dump was legit, we are talking about a 7 point gap.  Curious, but not enough to be flagged.  If the dump was fraudulent, we are talking about a 9-10 point gap.  That is suspicious.  If Mississippi delivered the expected 20 point win for Trump but Alabama was decided by only 10 or vice versa, it would be pretty hard to believe. 

 EDIT: Except for Texas, which everyone could see coming, Biden did not make a dent in deep red America.  However, if NC goes blue, he flipped every swing state except Florida and expanded the Dem margin in the lean blue states.  South Carolina has always been redder than its two neighbors but if Georgia and North Carolina flipped, you would expect it be a somewhat closer.  Nope, Biden barely made a dent in South Carolina compared to 2016.  That's a little fishy.

Sharpie:

First, shame on FOX news for calling Arizona prematurely.  It's still counting and Trump has pulled to within 1 percent with about 8% left to count.    No doubt that rejected ballots could have made a difference here.  Fraud will be difficult to prove however because the counties are large and it supposedly only happened in a few precincts.  Still, with a margin of 20,000 which is closing, it doesn't take too much fraud to change the outcome.  What I will look for is unusually low turnout with few Trump votes in historically red areas.  Arizona was known to be in play this time.  Record high turnout in Wisconsin and surprisingly low turnout in Arizona would look awfully fishy given that both are swing states.

Ballots found in a Dumpster:

This happened in both Georgia and Pennsylvania.  It's no conspiracy theory.  It's a fact and the number was in the thousands.  That's just 2 that we know about.  There could have been other instances.    In Georgia, they were military ballots, which historically go 2/1 Republican.  In a state ultimately decided by the narrowest of margins, that IS fraud and definitely could have made the difference.  Georgia will have a recount so that's not over yet and neither is Arizona or Wisconsin.  

Dominion Software:

This is BIG one and I'm saving it for last.  In Oakland county, Michigan, what was initially a 3,000 vote win for Biden was actually a 3,000 vote win for Trump due to a "software glitch."  Again, this is a FACT, not a conspiracy theory!  Oakland county is relatively small but in 2016, it went to Trump with nearly 60 percent.  It was initially reported as going to Biden with 60 percent this time but the correction took it back to 2016 numbers give or take a couple points.  That's a 6,000 vote swing.  This software was used in many Michigan counties as well as 26 other states, INCLUDING ALMOST EVERY CRITICAL SWING STATE!!  A one time mistake or did this happen elsewhere?  If it's the latter and the glitch always benefitted Democrats, it is MOST DEFINITELY FRAUD!  That may explain the surprisingly easy wins in the 5 states listed above.  I will look at the rural counties in the swing states.  If any of them flipped massively to Biden compared to 2016, it's a flag.  Sad fact is that machines can be programmed to reject a small percentage of votes and if it's only 1 out of 50 statewide, it probably won't even be caught.  Could this have been done on purpose?  Consider the lengths that the Left went to get Trump out of office.  I would not put anything past them.  I've also heard that the man who designed the software is a Democrat donor.  Yes, this does border on conspiracy territory so I won't make any judgments yet.  That will wait until my investigation is complete.  

Trump Path to 270:

He's at 217 now when Alaska is called for him.  You can definitely make the case that Trump legitimately won both Georgia and Arizona and he may yet do so.  That takes him up to 244.  A win in the Wisconsin recount is possible, which makes it 254.  North Carolina is still outstanding but I'm afraid it will be stolen by late votes.  That would be a 269-269 tie, which would go to Biden in the House.  If Trump could win either Michigan or Pennsylvania, he would not need NC.  Both states smell fishy to me.  Was it stolen?  I'm trying to be fair minded so I'm not jumping to conclusions yet.  Odds that Trump will ultimately prevail are slim but I still want him to push this.  If nothing else, it will expose at least some of the fraud and irregularities.  Let the truth come out.  No matter what it is, I will accept it.     

2020 Election Thoughts

 Last year, before the pandemic and civil unrest, I predicted a Trump win with about 290-300 EV with the final result determined by the Rust Belt.  Whoever won the most EV from Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota would likely be the winner but I figured Trump could do it with either Pennsylvania alone or Michigan plus an upset in New Hampshire or Nevada.

First, let's take a look at where I was correct:

-Texas would be safe for at least 1 more cycle.  I figured about a 5-6 point win and that's just about what we got.  Watch out in 2024.  It could be razor thin without improvements in the Hispanic vote.  

-Florida is reliably more Republican than the national average so in a 50/50 election, Trump would have the edge.  He ended up doing a little better than I expected on the strength of the Latino vote.  Hispanics are not a monolith.  South Florida does not have many Mexican Americans and Latinos of Cuban and South American descent are more likely to vote Republican. They've seen what has happened with socialism in Cuba and Venezuela.  

-Wisconsin and Michigan would be very tight and could go either way.  I was hopeful that the Republican trend from 2012-16 would continue into a comfortable 2020 win but did not count on it.  I predicted that Trump would win one and lose one but liked his chances best in Wisconsin as of last year.

-Trump would make small gains in the Hispanic and African American communities but predictions of a massive uptick in those percentages were wildly over-optimistic.  According to exit polls, despite the endless drumbeat of him being called a racist, Trump got the highest share of the non-white vote of any Republican since 1960 (26%).  Trump got 1/8 of the black vote (18 percent of men/8 percent of women) and just under 1/3 of Asians and Hispanics, which also was marginally better than 2016. The black vote will not be 90% going forward either as Trump did considerably better among young black voters.   He did slightly WORSE among white voters, which was a surprise to me.  More on that later.

Now where I was wrong:

I thought Trump would have a shot in several states that went to Clinton by close margins in 2016 such as Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nevada.  Nope.  Only Nevada was close this time around.  I find that to be curious and I'd like to see the county by county results.  Did Biden rack up more votes in urban areas or did Trump under-perform in rural areas?    

- I predicted that many of the Sun Belt upper middle class suburban voters who voted for Romney in 2012 but Clinton in 2016 would come back to Trump in 2020.  I also felt that most Never Trumpers would get on board as I know many reluctant Trump voters in 2016 who became enthusiastic this time around.  This, along with the slightly better showing among black voters, would shore up Georgia and North Carolina.  I expected 5 point wins in both states.  WRONG!  I never thought Florida would be redder than Georgia and North Carolina but that does indeed appear to be the case.  

While Trump has won over most white working class voters, he is losing the college educated suburban types.  I'm not sure if this trend can be reversed either and I'll explain why now.   An outsider candidate with the same ideology but a more genteel personality would be just as hated by the Left AND the Establishment.  I do believe that if Trump softened some of his rough edges, he could do a little better among suburban women.  However, I am convinced that with the Never Trump establishment, it is his anti-globalist and non-interventionist ideology rather than his character and demeanor that is the problem. 

Here are some other reasons:

Sympathy for Black Lives Matter.  I blame the media for this.  I could write a whole post about why this is troubling to me but let's leave that for now.  Some people bought into to the notion that Trump is this horrible racist and decided to vote against that.  Many still believe that he called Neo-Nazi very fine people even though that media lie has been thoroughly debunked.

Comfort with the Establishment.  These voters are well educated and upper middle class for the most part.  They are doing well economically and do not want to see a shake up within the system.  Thus, they prefer an establishment Democrat to Trump.  This time around, the hard core Never Trumpers did not vote 3rd party.  They went to Biden.  I did not see that coming.  

Policy Differences- Like it or not and no matter what happens with the recount, the Trump ideology is the new direction of the Republican party.  Although a minority, I do know a few people who would prefer to go back to the neo-con foreign policy of Bush and McCain.  All of them are well educated, white suburban voters.  To me, it's a good thing that the party has changed in this regard and it's not a winning formula post-Iraq.  I've had ENOUGH of endless wars and pointless foreign intervention.  The fact that Trump has come out so strongly against those polices appears to have permanently lost him the neocons.  Still, I never expected them to overlook the common ground on the domestic side and go to Biden.  The Cindy McCain endorsement may have cost him Arizona.  

Possible Reversal of this Trend- Let the Dems nominate a hard left candidate next time.  Those neo-cons and Establishment types might support Clinton or Biden.  How about Bernie Sanders and his ilk who will push for radical reforms?  I don't think so.  To me, that's the only way that wealthy suburban voters from metro Charlotte and Atlanta will come back to the GOP.

Possible Voter Fraud:

Yes, I will address this issue.  I went to bed around 11 PM (midnight Eastern) feeling pretty confident.  Even with a loss in Arizona, he only needed one more state assuming that his leads would hold in GA, NC and PA.  Nevada had not come in at all but both Michigan and Wisconsin were looking very good.  I remembered that in 2016 in both states, the lead stayed about the same all the way through.  This time, there were dumps of over 130 THOUSAND votes.  ALL FOR BIDEN!  I don't care where those votes came from, I just can't believe it.  Even in the poorest neighborhoods of inner-city Detroit, there has got to be a few rogue Trump voters especially when he got 18% of black men overall.  It might be 1 out of 50 but they certainly do exist.  Perhaps there is an explanation but this needs to be investigated.

I recall seeing that in Wisconsin, the number of votes actually exceeded the number of registered voters.  That proved to be untrue but nevertheless, the state shattered its previous record in terms of turnout by nearly 20 percent.  Nearly 85 percent participated and you can bet that those voter rolls contain people that died within the past year.  Yes, there were also a few reports of voters who were born in the 1800s even though no such person is alive today.   Indeed, although statewide there was not an overage of votes versus registrants, there were several precincts that were so.  I don't see how you can justify that or at least not be suspicious. 

In Arizona, there are reports that Sharpies handed out by poll workers caused ballots to be rejected by the scanner.  If true, they had better count those by hand.  There are also reports of questionable counting in PA, GA and NC.  Why would they stop counting in the middle of the night then announce the results several days later?  I once had to pay a late fee on my mortgage because it was not RECEIVED on time even though the postmark would have revealed that it was sent before the due date.  The same should hold true for vote counting.  

Trump was facing a very difficult climate with the COVID and civil unrest.  If he lost fair and square, I'm perfectly willing to accept it and move on.  I do have several questions that I will investigate on my own with an objective frame of mind:  What was the voter turnout in the swing states versus the solid red and blue?  How did it compare with 2016?  Did Biden's gains all come from one or two very blue counties thanks to a massive increase in turnout versus 2016?  Was the increased voter turnout concentrated in blue areas or did red counties also see a similar increase in turnout?   Again, I hope the truth comes out one way or the other but I have reason to be suspicious.  Yes, I'd be willing to retract this if it turns out to be a load of bunk.  I will reveal my analysis in a separate post.

Training 11/2-11/8 + A Discovery

 Discovery:

I can handle candy, alcohol and now Gatorade and fruit juice but anything with sugar AND carbonation is going to be a HELL NO!  Again, on a long drive, I kinda had to cheat on caffeine to make it home in one day. I made it 10 days clean so a small indiscretion should not hurt much, right?  Just don't make a habit of it.   I found that the ill-effects of lightly carbonated but highly caffeinated Red Bull and KickStart were noticeable but not severe.  On the other hand, just one big sip of non-caffeinated but highly carbonated Sprite was a BIG NO NO!  I must conclude that sugar is okay by itself, which is why Gatorade is tolerated.  Carbonation is also okay by itself.  I can handle alcoholic seltzers with no problem.  Sugar with carbonation with or without caffeine?  Poison.  

Another interesting development is less dependence of Probiotics.  Lately, 4 pills can give me a boost of about 30 seconds per mile give or take a few seconds.  Yes, that's still enough to be considered significant but it is not a night and day difference and I bet that I can handle 3-5 days off without a collapse, just like all the other pills.  That would be a big victory.  

11/2- Day 5 clean and that's usually the day of the secondary collapse.  It began yesterday afternoon when I required a long nap and never felt fully awake the rest of the day.  

AM- 2 miles on Lakeshore in 24:02 (12:01 pace).  1st mile with no Probiotics was a 12:17.  Normally, I expect big improvements after the key pill.  I thought I'd be at least in the 9s.  Not so this time.  I got a small boost to an 11:45 (MINUS 32).  Significant but hardly night and day.  

PM- 1 mile on Montreat at lunch.  Time is down to 10:38 on no additional treatment.  Tomorrow is a big day.  I expect to be a lot faster but if the gap remains small, the Probiotics have done the job.  Either I need a new treatment (ugh) or I will continue to improve by avoiding the forbidden drinks.  Let's hope so.  I want to see a gap of no more than 60 seconds per mile tomorrow.

Distance=3.0

11/3-AM- Montreat intervals.  Opened with a 3:07 and closed with a 2:55.  That's a gap of just 36 seconds per mile with BOTH TRS and Probiotics.  Very pleased to see that.  It's still enough to be significant but I won't face debilitating weakness if I forget to take it.  Added a cool.  Next week, I want to see if I can make it 3 days without treatments.

PM- Repeated the 2 miles on Lakeshore and my time is down to 17:34 (8:47 pace) plus a cool.  Just about where I expected to be at this stage (Day 6).  Another interesting note was my splits of 9:02-8:32 and I did NOT take any treatments during the run.  Perhaps the improvement in the morning has as much to do with getting warmed up as the treatments.

Distance=4.0

11/4- Head is kinda busy today but did surprisingly well.  Only had time for 2 on Lakeshore.  Hoped to do 3 or 4 but barely made it back in time as it was.  Time is down to 15:24 (7:42 pace) and I'd almost certainly be under the Mendoza line for 3.  Splits are evening up as well.  I was 7:46 at the turnaround then finished with a 7:38.  Day 7 clean and I did this without treatments.  I'll go ahead and skip until Friday afternoon and hope I don't collapse.  If I do, no big deal.  I'll bounce back quickly and will not cheat.

Distance=2.0

11/5- Again, planned to do 3-4 this morning and had to settle for 2 due to a crash.  Finished in 19:50 (9:55 pace) with splits of 8:55-10:55.  Clearly evident from the beginning that I had lost a step but still felt reasonably well through 0.75 miles. Collapsed after that.    No cause for alarm.  This was not unexpected.  I can make it 1 day without detox and probiotics but not 2.  I did not cheat and expect to bounce back quickly.  8 days clean.

Distance=2.0

11/6-AM- Finally managed to do 3 on Lakeshore in 24:27 (8:09 pace).  Nice bounce back from yesterday.  I was 12:30 at the half and finished with an 11:57.

PM- Nice sunset run at Veteran's Park.  2 miles in 15:54 (7:57 pace).  Probably translates to 15:34ish on Lakeshore.  Even pace and felt comfortable all the way.

Distance=5.0

11/7- Hoped to run 6 miles today but had to settle for 1 in a time over 10 minutes.  The culprit was alcohol.  Apparently, I cannot handle it after early evidence showed that I could.  I did drink 3 beers on Election night then 1 beer each of the next 3 days.  I was okay last night but it was immediately apparent early in the morning today.  Another What The ______!

Distance=1.0

11/8- Unplanned rest day.

-15 miles on the week