Last year, before the pandemic and civil unrest, I predicted a Trump win with about 290-300 EV with the final result determined by the Rust Belt. Whoever won the most EV from Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota would likely be the winner but I figured Trump could do it with either Pennsylvania alone or Michigan plus an upset in New Hampshire or Nevada.
First, let's take a look at where I was correct:
-Texas would be safe for at least 1 more cycle. I figured about a 5-6 point win and that's just about what we got. Watch out in 2024. It could be razor thin without improvements in the Hispanic vote.
-Florida is reliably more Republican than the national average so in a 50/50 election, Trump would have the edge. He ended up doing a little better than I expected on the strength of the Latino vote. Hispanics are not a monolith. South Florida does not have many Mexican Americans and Latinos of Cuban and South American descent are more likely to vote Republican. They've seen what has happened with socialism in Cuba and Venezuela.
-Wisconsin and Michigan would be very tight and could go either way. I was hopeful that the Republican trend from 2012-16 would continue into a comfortable 2020 win but did not count on it. I predicted that Trump would win one and lose one but liked his chances best in Wisconsin as of last year.
-Trump would make small gains in the Hispanic and African American communities but predictions of a massive uptick in those percentages were wildly over-optimistic. According to exit polls, despite the endless drumbeat of him being called a racist, Trump got the highest share of the non-white vote of any Republican since 1960 (26%). Trump got 1/8 of the black vote (18 percent of men/8 percent of women) and just under 1/3 of Asians and Hispanics, which also was marginally better than 2016. The black vote will not be 90% going forward either as Trump did considerably better among young black voters. He did slightly WORSE among white voters, which was a surprise to me. More on that later.
Now where I was wrong:
I thought Trump would have a shot in several states that went to Clinton by close margins in 2016 such as Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nevada. Nope. Only Nevada was close this time around. I find that to be curious and I'd like to see the county by county results. Did Biden rack up more votes in urban areas or did Trump under-perform in rural areas?
- I predicted that many of the Sun Belt upper middle class suburban voters who voted for Romney in 2012 but Clinton in 2016 would come back to Trump in 2020. I also felt that most Never Trumpers would get on board as I know many reluctant Trump voters in 2016 who became enthusiastic this time around. This, along with the slightly better showing among black voters, would shore up Georgia and North Carolina. I expected 5 point wins in both states. WRONG! I never thought Florida would be redder than Georgia and North Carolina but that does indeed appear to be the case.
While Trump has won over most white working class voters, he is losing the college educated suburban types. I'm not sure if this trend can be reversed either and I'll explain why now. An outsider candidate with the same ideology but a more genteel personality would be just as hated by the Left AND the Establishment. I do believe that if Trump softened some of his rough edges, he could do a little better among suburban women. However, I am convinced that with the Never Trump establishment, it is his anti-globalist and non-interventionist ideology rather than his character and demeanor that is the problem.
Here are some other reasons:
Sympathy for Black Lives Matter. I blame the media for this. I could write a whole post about why this is troubling to me but let's leave that for now. Some people bought into to the notion that Trump is this horrible racist and decided to vote against that. Many still believe that he called Neo-Nazi very fine people even though that media lie has been thoroughly debunked.
Comfort with the Establishment. These voters are well educated and upper middle class for the most part. They are doing well economically and do not want to see a shake up within the system. Thus, they prefer an establishment Democrat to Trump. This time around, the hard core Never Trumpers did not vote 3rd party. They went to Biden. I did not see that coming.
Policy Differences- Like it or not and no matter what happens with the recount, the Trump ideology is the new direction of the Republican party. Although a minority, I do know a few people who would prefer to go back to the neo-con foreign policy of Bush and McCain. All of them are well educated, white suburban voters. To me, it's a good thing that the party has changed in this regard and it's not a winning formula post-Iraq. I've had ENOUGH of endless wars and pointless foreign intervention. The fact that Trump has come out so strongly against those polices appears to have permanently lost him the neocons. Still, I never expected them to overlook the common ground on the domestic side and go to Biden. The Cindy McCain endorsement may have cost him Arizona.
Possible Reversal of this Trend- Let the Dems nominate a hard left candidate next time. Those neo-cons and Establishment types might support Clinton or Biden. How about Bernie Sanders and his ilk who will push for radical reforms? I don't think so. To me, that's the only way that wealthy suburban voters from metro Charlotte and Atlanta will come back to the GOP.
Possible Voter Fraud:
Yes, I will address this issue. I went to bed around 11 PM (midnight Eastern) feeling pretty confident. Even with a loss in Arizona, he only needed one more state assuming that his leads would hold in GA, NC and PA. Nevada had not come in at all but both Michigan and Wisconsin were looking very good. I remembered that in 2016 in both states, the lead stayed about the same all the way through. This time, there were dumps of over 130 THOUSAND votes. ALL FOR BIDEN! I don't care where those votes came from, I just can't believe it. Even in the poorest neighborhoods of inner-city Detroit, there has got to be a few rogue Trump voters especially when he got 18% of black men overall. It might be 1 out of 50 but they certainly do exist. Perhaps there is an explanation but this needs to be investigated.
I recall seeing that in Wisconsin, the number of votes actually exceeded the number of registered voters. That proved to be untrue but nevertheless, the state shattered its previous record in terms of turnout by nearly 20 percent. Nearly 85 percent participated and you can bet that those voter rolls contain people that died within the past year. Yes, there were also a few reports of voters who were born in the 1800s even though no such person is alive today. Indeed, although statewide there was not an overage of votes versus registrants, there were several precincts that were so. I don't see how you can justify that or at least not be suspicious.
In Arizona, there are reports that Sharpies handed out by poll workers caused ballots to be rejected by the scanner. If true, they had better count those by hand. There are also reports of questionable counting in PA, GA and NC. Why would they stop counting in the middle of the night then announce the results several days later? I once had to pay a late fee on my mortgage because it was not RECEIVED on time even though the postmark would have revealed that it was sent before the due date. The same should hold true for vote counting.
Trump was facing a very difficult climate with the COVID and civil unrest. If he lost fair and square, I'm perfectly willing to accept it and move on. I do have several questions that I will investigate on my own with an objective frame of mind: What was the voter turnout in the swing states versus the solid red and blue? How did it compare with 2016? Did Biden's gains all come from one or two very blue counties thanks to a massive increase in turnout versus 2016? Was the increased voter turnout concentrated in blue areas or did red counties also see a similar increase in turnout? Again, I hope the truth comes out one way or the other but I have reason to be suspicious. Yes, I'd be willing to retract this if it turns out to be a load of bunk. I will reveal my analysis in a separate post.
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