I work as an Auditor. I have been trained to spot fraud and have heard some laughable explanations for it so I know what I'm talking about here. I hope that my readers on both sides of the spectrum will find my analysis to be fair. I do not condone cheating to get the result that I want. Again, if it turns out to be much ado about nothing, I will fully accept a Biden presidency as legitimate. In this case, I DO believe that there was some level of fraud. The question is this: Was it a couple of anomalies that only made a difference of a few hundred votes in a couple of states or was it widespread enough to change the outcome? I don't know yet and will investigate with an open mind once the county by county data is available on David Leip's atlas. I hope that key questions will be answered one way or the other.
Dead People Voting And Multiple States:
This happens every election and it's pretty hard to stop it completely. A family member requests an absentee ballot on behalf of a recently deceased relative, fills it out and mails it in. Also, you may have recently moved and could be registered in two states. Is your name automatically removed from the old state? I honestly don't know. In this case, I don't believe these practices are widespread. People who were born in the 1800s that get absentee ballots? No excuse for that. Clean out the voter rolls every cycle. Still, in such cases, I believe it is negligence rather than fraud.
Vote Dumps:
I didn't see it myself because I was either asleep or on the toilet with diarrhea (yes, it happened to me) but it's pretty much accepted that the television networks showed a 100K+ gain for Biden in Michigan and Wisconsin with nothing added to Trump's total. I won't rule out an explanation for that such as an error by the networks. Still, it would be a lot more believable if it went 80K for Biden with 20K for Trump. As I said before, even in inner city Detroit, there is NO WAY that Biden got 100% of the vote especially not with that large of a sample size. An entire street or neighborhood block? Maybe, but not 100,000+ people.
How to Investigate the Dumps:
I do know that Wisconsin shattered its previous record for voter turnout with a participation rate nearly 20 points higher than either of the Obama years. That's a fact. Most urban counties contain a heavily Democratic city with some Republican pockets in the suburbs. Given that Trump did slightly better among non-white voters but slightly worse among whites, it's probably a wash overall. One of the networks said that Clinton got 59% of the vote in Milwaukee's county in Wisconsin. This result must be investigated. An increase to 65% of the vote with a turnout increase in line with the rest of the state? Yes, I can buy that. If it's much over 70% with a massive turnout increase on a scale that was not present in the rest of the state? Awfully suspicious. How about Madison's county? Clinton got 72% last time. Again, I can buy 75+ with increased turnout but not 80+ with massive turnout. Several wards showed participation over 100 percent. How do you explain that? I'll also investigate Detroit (I believe that is Wayne county Michigan) looking for the same thing.
Turnout in Non-Swing States:
A somewhat higher turnout in swing states can be expected because people know that their vote is crucial. Still, if the turnout was 85% in Wisconsin and Michigan but only 60% in deep red Alabama and deep blue Maryland? That's a little fishy. I know that Baltimore city reports their votes separately from Baltimore county. I'd be VERY interested to know those results. In that case, I do expect a marginal improvement from Trump because the city is 80% African American with no Republican pockets. If the turnout in Baltimore city was flat in comparison with 2016 or less than 2012, that raises SERIOUS questions. Obviously, there is no need for shenanigans in Maryland because it was certain to go blue. Again, a little more of an increased turnout in Detroit versus Baltimore is understandable but it better not be extreme. How much difference warrants a flag of suspicion? I'll have to look at both the city and the state as a whole and I'll determine that when I see it.
Margins of Victory:
I have not memorized each state in comparison with 2016 but in both the deep red and deep blue states, there were no surprisingly close races. Most of the Deep South and Heartland was Trump by 20+ while New England and the West Coast was Biden by 20+. I'm pretty sure that in all of the sure Trump states, his margins were about the same, give or take 1-2 points. In a true blue wave election, the Democrat will make at least some gains everywhere. We're far more polarized than back in the 1980s so we won't see a 44 or 48 state landslide. Still, if the gains in some of the states listed below are legitimate, I'd expect that Biden would at least crack 40 percent in states like Oklahoma and Alabama. That didn't happen. Here are the surprises:
Maine +8, New Hampshire +8, Minnesota +8, Virginia +10, Colorado +13. I didn't expect Trump to win any of these but did expect them to be at least 5 points closer. All were thought to be somewhat in play this time around, especially NH and MN. Colorado is now bluer than New Mexico. True, CO and VA are trending Dem. However, 2 of Trump's biggest gains in 2016 vs 2012 were MN and ME. Biden reversed the gains in Maine and Minnesota but could not do so in former swing states of Ohio and Iowa. Both went to Trump by just about the same margin. Florida was better than 2016 despite an increased share of Democrat leaning Puerto Ricans. Curious, but even if there was fraud here, it probably didn't make any difference.
Similar Electorates:
You expect that certain states that border each other and have the same type of electorate to vote within just a couple points of each other. For example, Trump took Tennessee with 61 percent and Kentucky with 62 percent (nearly identical to '16). Biden took Connecticut with 58 percent and Rhode Island with 59 percent (slightly better than '16). None of these were a surprise. If one of them was a blowout while the other was surprisingly close, that would be a flag.
In Wisconsin and Minnesota, a case can be made in this regard. You do expect MN to be slightly bluer than WI. Last time, it was by just under 2.5 points, which has been pretty consistent for the last few cycles. This time, even if the vote dump was legit, we are talking about a 7 point gap. Curious, but not enough to be flagged. If the dump was fraudulent, we are talking about a 9-10 point gap. That is suspicious. If Mississippi delivered the expected 20 point win for Trump but Alabama was decided by only 10 or vice versa, it would be pretty hard to believe.
EDIT: Except for Texas, which everyone could see coming, Biden did not make a dent in deep red America. However, if NC goes blue, he flipped every swing state except Florida and expanded the Dem margin in the lean blue states. South Carolina has always been redder than its two neighbors but if Georgia and North Carolina flipped, you would expect it be a somewhat closer. Nope, Biden barely made a dent in South Carolina compared to 2016. That's a little fishy.
Sharpie:
First, shame on FOX news for calling Arizona prematurely. It's still counting and Trump has pulled to within 1 percent with about 8% left to count. No doubt that rejected ballots could have made a difference here. Fraud will be difficult to prove however because the counties are large and it supposedly only happened in a few precincts. Still, with a margin of 20,000 which is closing, it doesn't take too much fraud to change the outcome. What I will look for is unusually low turnout with few Trump votes in historically red areas. Arizona was known to be in play this time. Record high turnout in Wisconsin and surprisingly low turnout in Arizona would look awfully fishy given that both are swing states.
Ballots found in a Dumpster:
This happened in both Georgia and Pennsylvania. It's no conspiracy theory. It's a fact and the number was in the thousands. That's just 2 that we know about. There could have been other instances. In Georgia, they were military ballots, which historically go 2/1 Republican. In a state ultimately decided by the narrowest of margins, that IS fraud and definitely could have made the difference. Georgia will have a recount so that's not over yet and neither is Arizona or Wisconsin.
Dominion Software:
This is BIG one and I'm saving it for last. In Oakland county, Michigan, what was initially a 3,000 vote win for Biden was actually a 3,000 vote win for Trump due to a "software glitch." Again, this is a FACT, not a conspiracy theory! Oakland county is relatively small but in 2016, it went to Trump with nearly 60 percent. It was initially reported as going to Biden with 60 percent this time but the correction took it back to 2016 numbers give or take a couple points. That's a 6,000 vote swing. This software was used in many Michigan counties as well as 26 other states, INCLUDING ALMOST EVERY CRITICAL SWING STATE!! A one time mistake or did this happen elsewhere? If it's the latter and the glitch always benefitted Democrats, it is MOST DEFINITELY FRAUD! That may explain the surprisingly easy wins in the 5 states listed above. I will look at the rural counties in the swing states. If any of them flipped massively to Biden compared to 2016, it's a flag. Sad fact is that machines can be programmed to reject a small percentage of votes and if it's only 1 out of 50 statewide, it probably won't even be caught. Could this have been done on purpose? Consider the lengths that the Left went to get Trump out of office. I would not put anything past them. I've also heard that the man who designed the software is a Democrat donor. Yes, this does border on conspiracy territory so I won't make any judgments yet. That will wait until my investigation is complete.
Trump Path to 270:
He's at 217 now when Alaska is called for him. You can definitely make the case that Trump legitimately won both Georgia and Arizona and he may yet do so. That takes him up to 244. A win in the Wisconsin recount is possible, which makes it 254. North Carolina is still outstanding but I'm afraid it will be stolen by late votes. That would be a 269-269 tie, which would go to Biden in the House. If Trump could win either Michigan or Pennsylvania, he would not need NC. Both states smell fishy to me. Was it stolen? I'm trying to be fair minded so I'm not jumping to conclusions yet. Odds that Trump will ultimately prevail are slim but I still want him to push this. If nothing else, it will expose at least some of the fraud and irregularities. Let the truth come out. No matter what it is, I will accept it.
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