Initial doomsday predictions of upwards of 1M deaths were scaled down to 100-200K then down again to 60K. It was most definitely the right decision to cancel spectator sporting events at least through the end of April. Same with live concerts and any other large gatherings including mega church services. That said, I would have allowed small restaurants and bars to remain open with strict enforcement of no more than a set number of people inside. Make it 75 as a compromise between 50 and 100. I often get hugs from a waitress or bartender and no I won't do that anymore. I've heard stories of idiots licking toilet handles to dare the coronavirus to get them. NO! I won't do anything stupid and have resolved to practice appropriate social distancing. My only real transgressions were a couple of trips to Vulcan Park and Shades Crest to watch the sunset. I didn't talk to anyone nor did I get close to anyone else. Most of my workouts have been junk runs around my 1/3 mile loop at home but I have gone to Lakeshore and Vulcan Park a couple times. Again, I followed the appropriate guidelines and allowed plenty of distance when passing others.
Alabama's restrictions are not as bad as other states but still, I cannot even walk inside a pizza joint. I have to place an order over the phone and give them a credit card number. Then, the employee places the box on the hood of my car and walks away. Lakeshore trail and Veteran's Park are open but high school tracks are closed. I am technically working from home but am not allowed to meet with any clients so I really cannot do much. My boss has conference calls and sends e-mails with read receipts attached so I can't blow it off, which is understandable. What could I do anyway with pretty much everything closed? It's been like this for 30 days now and IMO, it is time to gradually re-open the economy starting next week. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that will happen until at least the beginning of May. I won't lose my job as a government employee unless I do something really stupid but if this goes on much longer, I could be temporarily furloughed.
I've heard stories of parents getting tickets for playing catch with kids in a park. In Pennsylvania, liquor stores are closed and you cannot cross state lines to buy beer. Philadelphia is just minutes away from Delaware and Pittsburgh suburbs are close to West Virginia and Ohio yet stores can only sell to in-state customers. Let's say I want to take a drive to Huntsville or Montgomery just to get out of town, I could get a ticket unless I have a good reason to be there with a Birmingham address and I won't even try to cross state lines. Again, this is overkill.
As I predicted, the predicted mortality rate of 3.4% was an over-estimate. It's probably more like 1.5% at the most. It has been confirmed that anyone who tests positive is listed as a corona death even if they never showed any symptoms. A sudden death from a heart attack is an example. The final death count will end up being inflated. Also, an elderly individual who contracts the regular flu or pneumonia is also at high risk without corona. We've never shut the country down even in years in which the flu season was more widespread than usual. I'm not normally a conspiracy theorist and I am aware of the genuine threat but I've got to wonder about such unprecedented measures. I would not dismiss the possibility of a hidden agenda. Word is that experimental treatments with hydroxychloroquine. Z-pack and Zinc sulfate, though not without risk of complications, have been very effective and potentially life saving for severe cases. If a patient faces certain death even if the experimental treatment has only a slim chance of success, let them try it. I don't see how anyone can be opposed to Right To Try. WHAT THE HELL DO THEY HAVE TO LOSE?
For those with no pre-existing health issues, the survival rate is upwards of 99.5%. 80-85% of cases are mild-moderate and are resolved with no treatment. The arguments for quarantine are to protect the vulnerable and prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed by the 15% that do require treatment. I get it but outside of hot spots, I doubt there is much chance of the latter. As for protecting the vulnerable, if you are an essential worker and live with someone who is a high risk case, the stay at home order actually INCREASES your contact with them. For all the talk about flattening the curve, there is another school of thought that we can end the threat with herd immunity. Like many controversial issues, the best solution is some sort of middle ground between business as usual and a complete shut down. I fear that a vaccine may not be legally required but de-facto required to keep my job or travel internationally. I'm not totally anti-vax and would take the shot if there was a significant risk of death or permanent disability from a disease. Corona does not meet that criteria. Given my history of crazy reactions to benign substances such as Calcium, my fear of horrible reaction to a vaccine is certainly justified. Risk-benefit analysis. Word is that the flu shot actually leaves you MORE vulnerable to corona yet they are still pushing it. Go figure.
Let's not forget about unintended consequences. Incidence of domestic violence has increased as has substance abuse and suicides. Every life is precious and we should certainly take reasonable steps to protect the vulnerable but I do question how many lives are really saved on a net basis. Thousands are killed in traffic accidents every year. We can't shut down the highways but we can and should enforce laws against reckless driving. Let's take a similar approach to this virus. Living alone with most human contact being cut off is NOT easy and is in fact quite depressing especially given my unrelated medical issues.
As for my race plans, yes it was probably right to cancel all March and April races but I would allow small local 5Ks to proceed starting in May then gradually increase the allowed size on a weekly basis. I signed up for Maryland on April 3, which was obviously cancelled. I got a deferral until next year and a credit for a cancelled flight. I had planned to sign up for Minnesota on 4/25 but I saw where this was going by early March and wisely chose not to sign up. Needless to say, it is also cancelled. Maine, which was scheduled for June 7 is also out.
I only need 4 states plus Hawaii. They are Maryland, Minnesota, Maine and South Dakota. South Dakota in July is still on for now and that's probably my best shot. Maryland will be deferred until 2021. I do have alternative races for both Maine and Minnesota so there is still a chance that I could do at least one of those. I thought about South Africa for my 40th but who knows about international travel restrictions or a possible 2nd wave of corona so this is listed as Doubtful. Most likely, I will either go to Hawaii this year for number 48 or 49 or stop at 48 this year and finish with Hawaii in the Spring of 2021. We shall see.
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