MLB Reforms

Spring Training has already begun and Opening Day is less than 1 month away.  During the worst of the quarantine, I watched several old games from the late 1970s through the '80s.  I found those games to be a lot more interesting than today's edition.  The Collective Bargaining Agreement expires at the end of the year and we expect to see at least some rule changes.  Here are some that I support:

Universal DH-

The strategy is more complex in the NL with the double switches and decisions as to when to pinch hit for an effective starting pitcher.  Still, pitchers hitting has become progressively worse over the years.  It used to be that the average pitcher batted about .160.  Now, that's down about 50 points and nearly half the plate appearances end in a strike out.  Also, if they do get on base, they frequently dog it running the bases.  Make it interesting with the DH and give players who are blocked by a superstar a chance to play more often.  I'd also like to see more two way players.

Salary Arbitration and Free Agency

A 2nd or 3rd year player who is All-Star caliber deserves to make more than the League minimum.  I would support moving arbitration eligibility up by one year.  Free agency is a bit more dicey.  Let's suppose Pittsburgh gets the number one pick and drafts a once a decade type talent who makes it to MLB by age 20.  Currently, a player is not eligible for free agency until he has reached 6 full years of MLB service.  There is talk of reducing that to 5 or even 4 years.  I am opposed to that.  Under that system, a superstar player will become a free agent before he even hits his prime.  If you look at Ken Griffey Jr's baseball cards, you will see that his numbers were good from a young age but they were not other-worldly.  Same with Barry Bonds.  The team that drafted him should have 6 years of team control.  What about a late bloomer who doesn't make it until he is 25 or 26?  He's not eligible until age 32 and past his prime.  He's not going to get a big contract even with a very good track record.  In that case, give him a shot at free agency early but make it based on age.  I'd make it his age-30 season.  That may also entice his home team to give him a long term guarantee to pre-empt free-agency.  

Manipulating service time:

A player raked in AAA last season and does the same in Spring Training but he doesn't break camp with the team.  Instead, he's sent down for the first 3 weeks of the season to "work on his defense."  Everyone knows, it's all about getting an extra year of team control.  Something needs to be done about that.  Make it 5.5 years to be eligible for free agency and the player can and should be able to file a grievance if it is obvious that he is being held back when he's clearly MLB ready and better than the team's current starter.

Playoffs:

Currently, 10 teams make the playoffs.  This won't happen but I want that reduced back to 8.  I'd prefer 2 divisions per league with the division winners and next 2 best records per league.  I'm really not a fan of the 1 and done wild card especially when an otherwise average team can ride its ace who could be in the midst of one of the most dominant stretches ever.  The top wild card could be fighting for a division title and thus use their ace in the last game of the season.  With 16 playoffs teams last year, we saw 2 sub.500 playoff teams.  One of them got hot and came within 1 game of making the World Series.  Yes, we could see a sub.500 World Champ with expanded playoffs and that just doesn't sit well.  My prediction is that the playoffs will be expanded to 12.

Guaranteed Contracts:

Unlikely to see reforms here but I strongly support changes.  Yes, we should discourage bad contracts to aging players but sometimes, regression is not so easy to predict.  Suppose a player in his early 30s with a good track record decides to go into Operation Shutdown.  He dogs it on the field and his clubhouse conduct is detrimental to the team.  He's a negative WAR player that still must be paid $30 million per year even if he is released.  Under my proposal, the team that releases such a player is only liable for HALF his salary.  I'd expand that rule for salary dump trades in which other teams buy prospects.  

Balls In Play:

Currently, about one third of plate appearances end in either a walk, home run or a strikeout.  Not very exciting.  What is the point of having an elite defender if the ball is seldom hit in his direction?  I'd like to see more doubles, triples and stolen bases.  Supposedly, balls have been deadened a bit this year and are expect to carry about 5 feet less.  I support that.  Home runs should not be so easy to come by.  If that happens, the all or nothing hitters won't be as valuable and we will start to see fewer strikeouts.  

Tanking:

This is a problem.  Currently, Pittsburgh is following Houston's model of blowing up the whole team for prospects that are still at least 3 years away.  They will likely be historically bad for the next 2-3 years then hope to be contenders when the prospects and high draft choices are ready.  Other teams have done the same with mixed results.  As a result, many quality mid-level free agents go unwanted.  The theory is that a single free agent could make the difference between 58-104 and 61-101.  Why pay $10 million per year for 3 extra wins when you will still finish last?  

 The Mookie Betts of the world will still be paid very well but I recall Nick Markakis was coming off a season in which he hit .300 with about 15 homers.  He had to settle for a 1 year deal for just $6 million.  One great player does not make a great team.  You could sign 3 quality starting pitchers for the same money and get more combined value than from one Trevor Bauer.  Suppose a losing team (expect to win 70) strikes gold on 3 mid-level free agents and gets a little lucky, they could be in the race especially with expanded playoffs.

My proposal is if a team is deemed to be tanking, they must go back 10 spots in the draft for consecutive 100 loss seasons.  I would allow for an appeal.  Sometimes, luck can be all bad.  If 2-3 starting pitchers are lost for the year due to Tommy John surgery, even the Yankees will struggle to win.  Still, there is no good reason to see above average players in their early 30s go unwanted in free agency when they could surely help some teams.  The Commissioner decides whether or not a team is making a legitimate effort to win. I'm not a fan of a payroll floor.  Teams that are tanking will simply overpay their own journeyman players rather than sign a quality free agent.  My prediction is that a payroll floor will be imposed.  I suppose it's better than nothing.  

EDIT:

You don't need a team full of superstars to win.  Let's suppose that a team has 3 starting pitchers with ERAs under 4.00 and two others around 4.50 along with at least 3 reliable bullpen arms.  Also, 6 out of 8 starting position players deliver at least average (maybe slightly above) offensive production.  The rest of the roster is merely adequate.  Chances are, this team will score more runs than they allow and thus win more than they lose.