Presidential Election Forecast

 Trump should be considered a slight favorite at this stage but it's going to be close.  Odds are, the election will be decided by 5 swing states.  They are Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.  Whoever wins 3 out of those 5 probably wins the election.  Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin were all decided by less than half of 1 percent in 2020.  If Trump flips those 3, it takes him up to 272 EV (270 is needed to win).  

He has a few other paths as well.  Many pollsters believe Nevada will flip.  If that happens, he may not need Arizona.  Georgia plus either Pennsylvania or Michigan would do it but Wisconsin would not be enough.  I like his chances in Pennsylvania especially after the assassination attempt.  Play around with 270towin.com for other scenarios.

It really shouldn't be very close.  Biden has a 36 percent approval rating and until very recently, Harris was even more unpopular.  Yes, she was called the border czar despite the media's denial.   Republicans were called crazy conspiracists for suggesting that Biden was in cognitive decline and not up to the task.  They got their vindication after the debate.  

Surely, Congress knew.  The media knew.  Our allies and adversaries knew too.  Everyone knew.  Yet, they were still willing to put him up for another 4 years if they thought he could win.  Can you imagine what kind of shape Biden will be in come 2028?  I doubt that he will be alive.  Who has been running the country?  Is it Harris, Obama or a bunch of unelected bureaucrats?  I believe there was some sort of back room deal or threat to get Biden to agree to drop out.  When that happened, some in the media called him selfless and even compared him to George Washington.  WTH!

I wasn't thrilled with Vance as the VP pick.  He was a Never Trumper who even referred to Trump as America's Hitler.  I get that some people had reservations in 2016 but that rhetoric is beyond the pale.  I was also offended by his childless cat ladies comment.  As somebody who is not cut out for parenthood myself, mind your own business.  That said, I am glad that he chose an America First candidate over a neocon.  Calling Vance weird is pretty rich coming from someone who promotes drag queens and transgenderism to kids.  

I wanted Tulsi Gabbard as VP.  She tore Harris a new one in the debate and basically ended her campaign.  I could understand the enthusiasm for Obama but I don't see it with Harris.  Liberals point to sentencing disparities as evidence of systemic racism.  I actually think they have a point. While I advocate Just Say No, nobody should be imprisoned for simple marijuana possession and black people have been disproportionately affected.  Now the Democrats have nominated a former prosecutor who actually did lock up people for marijuana yet most will still vote for her.  That blows my mind.  If you care to explain, I will listen with an open mind and without judgement.  Word on the street is that Harris is a nightmare of a boss and dishes out soul crushing criticism peppered with profanity that often drives people to tears.  

Prediction:

The Harris honeymoon will fade.  The more exposure she gets, the less likeable she becomes.  This was evident in the 2020 campaign.  Trump will get 290 EV and win one more swing state than necessary.  The margin of victory in those 2 key states will be less than 2 percent each and the Democrats will not accept it as legitimate.

Training 7/22-7/28

 7/22- Split decision.  I'm getting better and better without the Thym-Adren.  Dipped below 80 on a half lap (79.9) but that's sub-8 pace versus 8:30 yesterday.  Bad news is that I am becoming intolerant to Thym-Adren.  

I was a little better on 2 pills (72.7) but not as good as yesterday.  Then, much worse on 4.  Real workout was a disaster.  1 mile in 11:31 on 4 pills.  Just yesterday, I was marginally better on 4 pills versus 2.  

After some experiments, I found out that Liver is the culprit.  I was worser after an extra Liver pill.  Better with Zinc but not with NAC.  The adrenal spike has not gone down after all.  The problems with Thym-Adren stem from Zinc/Copper dysregulation, which sadly is common among autistic people.  Do I need to switch to Zinc?  Stop the Liver?  Simply reduce the Liver?  I'll find out soon.  Likely OUT for Retro on Saturday.

Distance-1.5

7/23- Thym Adren is still tolerated at low doses.  Went with neither the Liver nor the Zinc.

Without- 1:43.  With Thym-Adren- 1:33

Distance-0.5

7/24- SEVERE CANDIDA DUMP.  Running is out until further notice 

Finalized NorCal Road Trip Plan

 I'm still almost 6 weeks out from this one but it's  something to look forward to for sure.  

Which airport?

It could be Reno, Sacramento, San Francisco, Oakland or even Fresno.  Reno is probably the best fit logistically as the trip will start and end near Lake Tahoe.

Day 1- Land in Reno, hopefully in late afternoon to early evening.  I can connect in either Dallas or Denver and it probably doesn't really matter.  I will definitely fly out of Birmingham.  The first night will be spent in either Truckee or South Tahoe.  Both are less than one hour from Reno.  Getting there before dark would be nice but I'm not sure if it's possible.

Day 2- Hopefully an early start because I gain 2 hours.  Full loop around Tahoe with a couple hiking stops.  I've been here before but it's been a while.  I must be done by late afternoon.  From there, it's slightly more than 3 hours to Oakland, which is where I will spend the night.  If I'm late getting there, it's okay.

Day 3- Oakland hotel will be downtown and I'm pretty sure it will be in a safe area.  The big advantage is that it's within walking distance of the BART station.  I can leave the car there and take the subway to San Francisco.  I got a 24 hour sample 2 years ago and liked what I saw.  This time, a Giants game is the top priority.  Other must sees include Coit Tower, Lombard Street, Alamo Square and Painted Ladies.  I can take a cable car to Fisherman's Wharf and walk to the Golden Gate bridge but will not cross it that day.  Dolores Park in the dark could be cool as well.  I'm not too worried about safety issues.  I know what areas to avoid.  I'll take BART back to Oakland for the night.

Day 4- The initial plan was to go to Yosemite but this would be Labor Day and it would require reservations.  Instead, I'll take an extra day in the Bay area.  I'm a little apprehensive about driving in San Francisco but it seems easy enough.  I-80 to US-101 will take me across the Golden Gate bridge.  Given that it's a holiday, early morning traffic should not be too bad.  From there, it should be easy enough.  I'll play it by ear but the current plan is Stinson Beach for at least a couple hours.  Current water temperature is 62 degrees.  Certainly not warm but that's tolerable with a wetsuit.  I may not even need it if it hits 65.  There's also Sausalito and a nice state park on the other side of the bridge.  When I'm done there, I will play it by ear again.  Do I stick to the main roads and get back to Oakland for the night or do I stay in San Francisco?  I could check out Golden Gate Park, Twin Peaks and Ocean Beach.  I may be able to sample this and still make it to Oakland for the night.

Day 5- Drive to Yosemite and spend most of the day there.  I believe it's roughly 3 hours from Oakland so I need to get an early start.  Mammoth Lakes will be my night stop.  I'll do a couple short hikes.

Day 6- Tioga Pass up to Tahoe.  I can catch parts that I may have missed earlier but I will be back in Reno for the night.  Trip home next morning.

Rant: Assassination Attempt

 Trump was literally an inch away from being fatally shot in the head.  He survived only because he turned his head at the exact right time.  Divine Intervention?  I think so.

More than anything else, I blame the media.  We've heard it over and over.  Trump is literally Hitler.  If he wins, it's the end of American democracy and he will be a Fascist dictator for life.  Kathy Gifford held up a picture of Trump's severed head.  Snoop Dogg made a video of himself shooting Trump.  The Lincoln Project founder said to "put a bullet in Trump".  Another idiot said Where is John Wilkes Booth when we need him.  Madonna said that she thought about blowing up the White House.  Trump needs to tone down his "incendiary rhetoric"? Neither Trump nor his supporters have spoken this way about Democrats.  True, the Right was pretty hard on Obama, but nothing like that.  In fact, talk show host Mark Levin told a caller that he will not have Obama vs Hitler talk on his show.  

Democrats have gone off the deep end.  Elon Musk put it well with a recent quote that I will paraphrase.  Moderate liberal views in 2008 that remain unchanged would be considered centrist today if not slightly conservative.  Should Republicans simply go along with it or simply offer token resistance?  No more playing nice.  We need a fighter.  In the future, whichever candidate gets the most negative coverage from the liberal media will get my vote.  

Probably about 90 percent of liberals have said that though they despise the man, political violence is not the answer.  Good for them.  That said, I have seen a few that have suggested that it was staged or expressed disappointment that the shooter missed.  That is BEYOND SICK!  I'm normally tolerant of opposing viewpoints but this is where I draw the line.  I saw one such post from on old running friend.  I didn't say anything.  I just hit the Unfriend button and I will never talk to him again.  Though I disagree with 90 percent of what Obama and Biden have done, I DO NOT hate them personally and wish them well in their private lives.

Political violence is not the American way?  Sorry to say it but take a look at our history:

Abraham Lincoln, James Garfield, William McKinley, Teddy Roosevelt, JFK, MLK, RFK Sr, Malcolm X, Ronald Reagan.  All were targets of assassins.

Details about the shooter are still sketchy.  What scares me is that he was only 20 years old, just one year older than my oldest nephew.  He was a registered Republican but I am betting that he wanted to vote against Trump in the primary.  He did make a small donation to a liberal group.  School acquaintances say that he showed no real red flags.  He was quiet and a bit of a loner but wasn't severely bullied.  He was probably the type that never really distinguished himself and few people really cared about him one way or the other.  Perhaps he wasn't overly political but was simply a nut case who wanted to go out in a blaze of infamy.  Maybe he was a Romney style Never Trump Republican.  I've heard that authorities have accessed his cell phone. That could give us a clue about the motives.  I'll wait for more information.

I have serious questions about the Secret Service.  Rally goers alerted authorities that there was a man on the roof with a gun.  Nobody did anything.  A whole 2 minutes passed between that point and the first shot.  Why wasn't that area secured?  Why wasn't Trump pulled off stage sooner?  Why did they allow him to shoot first?  Incompetence?  I certainly hope so.  Given the lengths that the Deep State has taken to stop Trump, I am open to the possibility of a conspiracy.  There was a proposal to strip Trump's Secret Service protection after he was convicted.  Again, I need more information before I make that call.  

I'm still shaken up.  Let's hope that there will be more civility going forward.  In 2008, McCain told supporters that America will not be doomed if Obama wins but stressed that he could do a lot better.  It sure would be nice if Biden assured his base that Trump is not Hitler nor will he become a dictator.  

Restrictions on free speech?  I've heard that in Canada, you may get a visit from the police over a strongly worded criticism of the government or an elected official.  I don't support that.  A death threat against an elected official is illegal in the US.  I'd go further than that.  Rooting for an assassination or expressing disappointment over a failed attempt ought to be against the law as well.

Training 7/13-7/21

 7/13- An improvement.  Yesterday, it took me 4:10 to run a lap without pills.  Today, my time was down to 3:32.  As for the real workout, I managed 1.5 miles in 16:06 (10:44 pace).  Negative split.  8:08-7:58.

Distance-2.0

7/14- Another very positive step.  Opening lap in 3:10.  Then 2.5 miles in 24:08 (9:39 pace).  This is right at 30 minute pace for 5K and I bet I break it if I kept going.  Can I get down to 27-ish in 2 weeks for Retro?  Barring a relapse, I think so.

Distance-3.0

7/15- Progressing ahead of schedule.  Opening lap in 2:51 without pills.  Real workout was 2 miles in 17:48 (8:54 pace).  This would bring me home in about 27:45 if I can maintain it for 5K.  I've been off caffeine for 5 days.  Cravings should diminish.

Distance-2.5

7/16- Setback.  Never fails.  Every time I feel like I'm getting close to 5K race shape, it's something like this.  I said earlier that while caffeine is not tolerated, alcohol seems to be no problem.  Wrong!  I had 1 beer on Saturday, 3 on Sunday and 2 yesterday.  Hardly a binge!  I was noticeably worse after the 2 beers yesterday.  I managed only a 1:34 half lap WITH Thym Adren.  The only thing that helped was the Liver (1:27-1:22).  Back to Day 1 tomorrow with no sugar or alcohol.

Distance-0.5

7/17- Opened with a 3:48 lap.  Not much better on Thym Adren (3:43).  Significantly better on Liver (3:20) but still not good.  

PM- Montreat Mile in 10:13.  In the afternoon, I did benefit from Thym Adren.  I passed halfway in 5:21 but improved to 4:52 after popping the pill.  Should be better tomorrow.

Distance-2.0

7/18- Opener in 3:26 (10:18 pace).  Much better than yesterday's 3:48.   Liver helped but it wasn't a game changer.  Thym-Adren is.  

Real workout was 1.5 miles in 15:31 (10:21 pace).  I was hoping to do a little better than that but no need to panic.  Day 2 is often worse than Day 1 especially when it comes to the adrenal spike.  Pace was only 8 seconds slower and I increased the distance by 50 percent.

Distance-2.0

7/19- Opener was down to 3:12 (9:36 pace) while the real workout was 2 miles in 19:23 (9:41 pace).  I'll take it.  Significant improvement over yesterday.  Long way to go.

Distance-2.5

7/20- Interesting findings today.

Opener is down to 2:55 (8:45 pace).  Very pleased with that.  Not as pleased with the real workout.  It was 3 miles on North Lakeshore in 28:11 (9:24 pace).  Better than yesterday over a longer distance but nearly 40 seconds slower pace than the opener.  Even pace (14:04-14:07) despite the slope.  Rain came down a bit harder on the back half but I don't think it affected me.  This translates to roughly 29:15 for a full 5K.  Long way to go.  

Distance-3.5

7/21- Hated intervals.  4x half lap at Montreat plus a one lap cool.

Zero pills- 85 (8:30 pace)

2 pills- 70 (7:00 pace)

4 pills- 67.5 (6:45 pace)

5 pills- 77.0 (7:42 pace).

As I began to suspect yesterday, the adrenal spike is beginning to go down.  Yesterday's workout would have been better on a lower dose.  The optimal dose was probably 3 pills and my time would have been close to 60.  

It is still quite disturbing that the gaps in performance remain significant.  The difference between zero pills and 2 pills is 90 seconds per mile.  If I had attempted this on 6 pills, I am likely WORSE than the opener.  I almost certainly would have been worse than yesterday in a real workout.  

-19 miles 

Unexplored Parts of the USA

 Even when you travel as much as I do, there are always new places to see and discover.  I plan to visit Alaska next summer, which will make it all 50 states at least twice.  That said, there are plenty of states in which I have not seen too much.  

Massachusetts and Connecticut-;I have been to Boston, Cape Cod and the Long Island Sound.  I have not seen the Berkshire Mountains, Hartford or Greenwich.  Perhaps that could be combined with a Fall NYC trip about 5 years down the road.

New York and Pennsylvania- I have not been to Niagara Falls since I was just a little kid.  I plan to change that very soon.  The Finger Lakes and Poconos region are also unexplored.  Getting there may be a bit tougher but it's possible.  

Great Lakes Road Trip Plan- Fly to Detroit.  Drive through Canada to Niagara Falls then come back through the USA with stops in Erie and Cleveland.  

Wisconsin and Michigan- I have driven across Wisconsin and have seen Door County and the North Shore but no major cities.  As for Michigan, I've been to Detroit and the Upper Peninsula but little else.  Michigan was ranked #8 in terms of natural beauty according to Thrillist.  I'm missing something.  Perhaps I will make it back here if I want to try for all 30 ballparks.

Iowa and South Dakota- I've only seen one state park and a couple of small towns in Iowa.  As for South Dakota, it's unexplored except for the Rapid City area.  I'd like to see more but I'm not sure it's worth a special trip.

Kansas and Oklahoma- I've seen a fair amount of both but can't say that I have thoroughly explored either.  There are a few gems in western Kansas but that's difficult to access with Denver being the nearest large airport.  I've not seen much of Oklahoma outside of Tulsa and OKC.  There are some hidden gems in the southeast that could be accessible from Dallas.  

Utah and Colorado- I've not been north of Salt Lake City in Utah and I hear Ogden is really beautiful.  Even though I've been to Colorado 5 times, I have not ventured west of Breckenridge.  How about a road trip from Salt Lake to Gunnison then down the Million Dollar Highway and back through Moab? That could be beautiful.  

Nevada- Aside from Tahoe, Reno and Vegas, I've seen virtually none of this state.  There are a couple of parks not far from Vegas that are worth a look.  I could see myself going there either to break up the trip home from Hawaii.  Also, when the A's get their new ballpark, I'll go there rather than Oakland.

Washington- I didn't do justice to Rainier and haven't seen Olympic or North Cascades.  Those are must see 

California- Been here several times but have yet to see Yosemite and Tioga Pass.  I want to drive PCH and do justice to San Diego and San Francisco.

Hawaii- Been to the Big Island and Oahu but not Kauai or Maui.

Alaska- Definitely want to see Seward and the glaciers as well as Denali State Park.  As for the Dalton Hwy up to the Arctic Ocean?  Unlikely.  I'm not even sure rental cars will cover you there.

Toronto and Newfoundland Trip Report

 The plan was to go somewhere way up north this summer.  It was to be either Canada or Alaska but I could not afford both.  Newfoundland is the only Canadian province that I have yet to see but to be honest, I figured there probably wasn't enough there to justify such a far away stand alone trip.  Combining it with Toronto makes it worth it. With the Blue Jays being home over the 4th of July and the ability to do a trip that only required 2 days off work, I opted for Canada.  After some deliberation, I decided on flying out of Birmingham rather than Atlanta.  In order to get to Toronto at a decent hour, I would have had to stay in Atlanta the night before to catch a morning flight.  At any rate, I wasn't worried about getting in but feared that getting out could be a little dicey.

7/3- No issues on the flight.  Easy connection in DC and I landed in Toronto just before noon, local time.  I've driven into Canada several times but this was my first flight to the country.  Customs was a breeze.  I simply answered the questions at the kiosk and presented my receipt to the guard.  No rental car is necessary here.  I took a train to Union Station, which took about 25 minutes then it was about a 15 minute walk to my hotel on Queen Street.  All of the major attractions were within walking distance.

Lunch was a small steak and fries at the hotel then I got Blue Jays tickets for that night's game.  First stop was the Hockey Hall of Fame.  I don't really follow that sport nowadays but I was a bit of a fan growing up.  Mario Lemieux was my favorite player.  It's worth seeing even if you are not a fan.  From there, it was a walk down Front Street and a brief stop at the harbor before the game.

The Skydome is my 17th ballpark.  Especially when the roof is open with the CN Tower looking down, I'd rank this one as better than average.  Probably just outside the top 5 that I have seen.  Blue Jays lost 9-2 but the game was competitive until the 7th inning and I enjoyed talking with the guy behind me.  

7/4- American Independence Day.  I believe this is the first time I've spent this holiday in another country.  First stop was the CN Tower.  I've been to many such places and it never gets old.  I bet it's awesome at night but it closes before it gets fully dark this time of year.  Right next door was the Aquarium, which is also worth a visit.  After lunch, I took a walking tour of the harbor then rested briefly in the room.  

I took a walk north through the university campus to the provincial Capitol.  I hoped to see a sunset over the harbor but it was too overcast.  Speaking of the weather, temps were in the upper 70s every day.  Though it dawned sunny, clouds increased through the day but there was just a trace of rain the first day in Newfoundland.  I ended up at Nathan Phillips Square and it was cool to see that lit up at night.

7/5- 5AM wakeup.  I walked to Union Station and caught the train to the airport.  No issues on this flight either.  I landed in Newfoundland just after noon.  After careful consideration, I decided against a car rental and have mixed feelings about that choice.  Parking was rough and I would have needed a navigation system.  I'm not certain that I could have gotten one.  Taxis are readily available and most of what I wanted to see was walkable but I ran out of stuff to do too early.  

Ontario has a bit of a different vibe but it's not a whole lot different from the USA.  Newfoundland is an entirely different world.  It's greener, very hilly and locals have interesting accents similar to Ireland.  First thing I did was a challenging hike up to Signal Hill.  That was especially tough with a bit of jet lag.  

There are a ton of fun bars downtown.  I prefer a quieter atmosphere that is conducive to conversation.  I strongly dislike cover charges because I will leave if I'm not enjoying the crowd and try my luck elsewhere.  As expected, my southern accent created a bit of a buzz but nobody obsessed over it.  The most common question that I got was why did I want to come to Newfoundland?  Why not?  In the end, I did meet some nice people who were not too wasted but it took a couple stops.  You won't have any trouble meeting people here.  Locals will approach you and initiate the conversation.  Everyone was impressed that I have visited all 10 Canadian provinces.

7/6- Slept in a bit and got on a 3.5 hour bus tour of the city and surrounding area.  The highlight was Cape Spear, which is the easternmost point on the North American continent.  The only real downer was that after a late lunch, I had seen pretty much everything within walking distance.  Now, I wish I did have a car to explore the island.  Oh well,  I ended up just chilling at the harbor for a while then went to bed early for obvious reasons.  There were really only one or two spots that I missed out on seeing.  

7/7- 4AM wakeup this time.  I tried to get a later flight out of Newfoundland and an earlier flight out of Toronto but no such luck.  I was worried about getting a taxi at that hour but it was of no concern.  I actually hoped for a delay but the first flight went off without a hitch and I was back in Toronto with an 8 hour wait until my next flight.  The woman in front of me had to wait 10 hours for a flight to Cuba.  When you have to take 3 flights, you run the risk of a missed connection, which is why I considered flying out of Atlanta.  I figured if worse came to worst, I would have to spend a night in Philadelphia.  

I figured that I would have to change terminals and knew that I would go through US Customs and additional security while still in Toronto.  For this reason, I wanted at least 2-3 hours here but not 8.  Time actually passed quickly and I had a nice conversation with a guy from Ontario and a girl from Jamaica for a while.  

The drama started with a 1 hour delay on the flight to Philly and my scheduled layover was only 75 minutes.  At least, I would make it back to America.  Fortunately, my seat was near the front and I made it only because the connecting gate was close.  I arrived at the gate out of breath from running when the last group was called for boarding.  I was sure glad that I didn't have to drive from Atlanta now.  I crashed shortly after I got home.  

Back to Square 1?

It's been horrible since the return from Turks and Caicos.  I set myself up for a collapse with a caffeine binge for a couple of days starting on the trip home.  I had a long wait for the flight, 3 hours in the air then another 3 hour drive after an hour and a half on shuttles and a long line at Customs.  It seems like I can get away with a one day splurge but not two days in a row.  Only caffeine is the problem.  Sprite appears to be tolerated and so does alcohol.  Why the intolerance to caffeine? Probably related to Ceruloplasmin.

Symptoms?

I became intolerant to the very pills that I need (Thym-Adren).  Then, after about 18-24 hours off caffeine, the adrenals spike like you would not believe.  I have an insatiable need for Thym-Adren and the normal dosage barely makes a dent.  Eventually, the spike will go down.  How long will it take to get back to where I was before the trip?  Probably at least a couple of weeks.

Also, my Achilles has been sore the last few days in spite of minimal training.  Hopefully that goes away when the spike goes down.  It's no worse when I run but I won't push it.  Last thing I need is to be walking with a limp in Canada.  If it doesn't go away, I may need a shot of prolotherapy.

I had car trouble this weekend and the repair bill plus the rental car cost me over $1000.  Not a good week.