Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Presidential Election Forecast

 Trump should be considered a slight favorite at this stage but it's going to be close.  Odds are, the election will be decided by 5 swing states.  They are Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.  Whoever wins 3 out of those 5 probably wins the election.  Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin were all decided by less than half of 1 percent in 2020.  If Trump flips those 3, it takes him up to 272 EV (270 is needed to win).  

He has a few other paths as well.  Many pollsters believe Nevada will flip.  If that happens, he may not need Arizona.  Georgia plus either Pennsylvania or Michigan would do it but Wisconsin would not be enough.  I like his chances in Pennsylvania especially after the assassination attempt.  Play around with 270towin.com for other scenarios.

It really shouldn't be very close.  Biden has a 36 percent approval rating and until very recently, Harris was even more unpopular.  Yes, she was called the border czar despite the media's denial.   Republicans were called crazy conspiracists for suggesting that Biden was in cognitive decline and not up to the task.  They got their vindication after the debate.  

Surely, Congress knew.  The media knew.  Our allies and adversaries knew too.  Everyone knew.  Yet, they were still willing to put him up for another 4 years if they thought he could win.  Can you imagine what kind of shape Biden will be in come 2028?  I doubt that he will be alive.  Who has been running the country?  Is it Harris, Obama or a bunch of unelected bureaucrats?  I believe there was some sort of back room deal or threat to get Biden to agree to drop out.  When that happened, some in the media called him selfless and even compared him to George Washington.  WTH!

I wasn't thrilled with Vance as the VP pick.  He was a Never Trumper who even referred to Trump as America's Hitler.  I get that some people had reservations in 2016 but that rhetoric is beyond the pale.  I was also offended by his childless cat ladies comment.  As somebody who is not cut out for parenthood myself, mind your own business.  That said, I am glad that he chose an America First candidate over a neocon.  Calling Vance weird is pretty rich coming from someone who promotes drag queens and transgenderism to kids.  

I wanted Tulsi Gabbard as VP.  She tore Harris a new one in the debate and basically ended her campaign.  I could understand the enthusiasm for Obama but I don't see it with Harris.  Liberals point to sentencing disparities as evidence of systemic racism.  I actually think they have a point. While I advocate Just Say No, nobody should be imprisoned for simple marijuana possession and black people have been disproportionately affected.  Now the Democrats have nominated a former prosecutor who actually did lock up people for marijuana yet most will still vote for her.  That blows my mind.  If you care to explain, I will listen with an open mind and without judgement.  Word on the street is that Harris is a nightmare of a boss and dishes out soul crushing criticism peppered with profanity that often drives people to tears.  

Prediction:

The Harris honeymoon will fade.  The more exposure she gets, the less likeable she becomes.  This was evident in the 2020 campaign.  Trump will get 290 EV and win one more swing state than necessary.  The margin of victory in those 2 key states will be less than 2 percent each and the Democrats will not accept it as legitimate.

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