Trump is a divisive figure. If you don't like him and are disappointed by the results, that's understandable and I respect your viewpoint. Cutting off long-time friends and family members over politics is not cool. Posting profanity laced rants on social media isn't very smart either. There was one in particular that really angered me. A woman wished for black men who voted for Trump to be killed by police brutality and women to be victims of domestic violence. Sickening! Never in a million years would I wish harm on anyone who voted differently than I did!
Acting as if Trump is evil incarnate? Get a grip! As the grandson of a WW2 Veteran, I am especially angered by the nonsensical Hitler comparisons. Show me a concentration camp designed to exterminate an entire race of people and then I will listen. Trump was one of the few presidents in recent memory NOT to start a war. I blame the media for stirring up such hatred
I find the suggestion that people didn't vote for Harris because she is a woman of color to be insulting. I'll tell you why she lost. She was part of an administration with a 36 percent approval rating and admitted that her policies would not have been much different from Biden. Add to that, she is unlikeable and totally inauthentic. Changing her accent based on her audience? That's cringeworthy. It really should not have been as close as it was. Biden would have fared no better. However, if he had dropped out earlier and allowed an open primary, Dems may have had a shot.
I was an early supporter of Ben Carson in 2016 and am a fan of Candace Owens. I kinda liked Tulsi Gabbard even when she was a Democrat. I sure do hope that the first female President is a conservative Republican. That might close the gender gap. I vote based on policy. Race or gender of a candidate is not a factor. Ben Carson was once called a "black white supremacist.". With the possible exception of calling Jewish people Nazis, that's the dumbest thing I've ever heard.
Demographics:
-38 percent of the Asian vote. I see room for improvement here. It was about 50/50 during the Bush era but swung D under Obama. DEI policies have especially hurt the Asian community.
-14 percent of the Black vote. This number has been slowly rising since 2012 but I can't see it moving more than a few points every cycle. It may not be until 2040 that Republicans get up to 25. Trump got 22-24 percent of Black men depending on the exit poll. Among young people, I am betting that it was close to 30 percent. It's not as much of a taboo nowadays to vote Republican. I expect that the gains will continue after Trump is out of office.
45 percent of the Latino vote, including 52 percent of men. That was YUGE! I expected gains but not by that much. I'd wager that Trump broke 50 percent in Texas, which will keep it safely red for the foreseeable future. It also shores up Arizona and even puts New Mexico in play. Incredibly, it was suggested that Latinos were motivated by racism and sexism, which was not a factor when they voted for Hillary and Obama. Suppose that number jumps to 55 percent next cycle. Will the Democrats call for a wall and strict border control if they think that Latinos will vote against them? Serious question.
57 percent of the white vote. Marginally worse than 2016. Trump is slowly losing upper class white voters.
State analysis:
One thing I found strange about 2020 was that Biden gained only in the swing states and the lean blue states. He didn't make a dent in deep red America nor did he expand his margins in deep blue states. In this election, Trump improved in at least 48 states with his biggest gains being in deep blue areas. The count is still going in a few states but Harris may have done fractionally better only in Utah and Washington.
Massachusetts- It was still a blowout win for the Democrats but Trump did do 5 points better than 2020. Other states in the Northeast moved towards Trump by similar margins. That's what you should expect when the national popular vote shifts by 6 points.
New York and New Jersey- Trump got shelled in Manhattan but made serious inroads in Brooklyn and Queens. In the Bronx, he did more than 20 points better than 2020. He did 11 points better in New Jersey, which voted nearly identical to Virginia. Who would have thought that 20 years ago?
Georgia and North Carolina- These were a little closer than I expected. The wealthy Atlanta suburbs used to be solid red. Not so now. They would have actually preferred a Romney style Republican. I suppose that when you have a million dollars in the bank, paying more for groceries doesn't hit as hard. I expected Never Trump types would come back after 2016. Most have gone Democrat. Trump did very well in suburban Nashville and Dallas but not so hot in Charlotte and Atlanta. Tennessee's transplants tend to be Midwestern and conservative while Georgia and North Carolina attract more Northeastern liberals. North Carolina should still go red in a 50/50 election but Georgia is a toss up and could be tough to win going forward.
Florida and Texas- I expected a 7-8 point win. The margin was 13 in Florida and 14 in Texas. Trump won Miami Dade while Palm Beach was about 50/50. In Texas, Trump flipped several border counties that were D by 50 as recently as 2016. Solid red in the future. Dems could shift on immigration.
Illinois- Trump got 30 percent in Cook county (Chicago). I don't have the prior numbers but I imagine that's a big gain. This was much closer than I expected but I don't expect it to flip anytime soon.
Arizona- Vote is still counting but Trump is up by 6. Though Texas Latinos probably shifted the most, Trump gained in Arizona as well. Arizona moved by about the national average. It should be lean red in a 50/50 election.
California- Harris' home state swung 11 points towards Trump. The people who know her best didn't give her a ringing endorsement. Again, I imagine that California Latinos shifted right as well. There may be hope for California after all. It's a beautiful state with lots of nice people.
Rust Belt- This election was a solid victory for Trump but NOT a landslide. 4 out of the 7 battlegrounds were decided by 2 points or less. PA, MI and WI all shifted red but by less than the national swing. If Harris had flipped all 3, she gets to 270. These are the bell weather states and I expect them to remain that way.
Future:
Like it or not, Trumpism is the new direction of the Republican party. Nikki Haley's candidacy was the last gasp of the Old Guard. I really don't understand why some Liberals would prefer going back to Bush like candidates. May I remind you that he tried to stop gay marriage and launched a pre-emptive war under false pretenses. But oh, since he won't support Trump, all is forgiven. LOL. I do hope that the 2028 nominee has Trump's policies with a more genteel personality. If that happens, I predict he or she will be just as hated.
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