GOP Vote Share

There is a common misconception that Trump was elected by riding a massive wave of white support.  This is untrue.  Actually, Trump did no better than Romney among white voters overall.  He lost some suburban voters in the Sun Belt (Phoenix, Houston, Charlotte, Atlanta) while picking up ground in the Rust Belt.  It proved to be a good trade as he held Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona while picking up Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.  Trump did marginally better than Romney among all racial minorities and benefited from lower turnout.  His share of the African-American vote was between 8 and 9 percent, which has been just about the norm for Republican candidates since the mid-1960s without Obama on the ballot.  One thing that I do find intriguing is that Trump got 13% of black male voters (slightly more than 1 in 8) but only 4% of black females.  When framed a different way, black men are more than 3 times more likely to vote for Trump than black women.  This was not an anomaly either.  In the Georgia gubernatorial election, Stacey Abrams got 97% of black women but only 87% of black men. 

I’ve heard some polls from Rasmussen that claim Trump has a 40% approval rating among African-Americans.  I wish it were true but somehow, I doubt it.  He’ll do better but it won’t be a significant jump.  I’ll predict at least 12 percent overall, but no higher than 15.  He might crack 20 among black men but the gender gap will remain significant.  Of course, these were my thoughts before all the protests.  He could take a hit in the aftermath of George Floyd.  There is a bit of a split among black conservatives about the severity of police brutality.  Failure to do anything about it would cost him but his Executive Order was a good move.  Obama/Biden took no such action in the wake of Michael Brown or Freddie Gray but to be fair, those cases were not as clear cut.  De-funding or disbanding the police is one of the dumbest ideas that I have ever heard and would most definitely lead to a spike in crime.   

One thing that I do find encouraging is the generational split.  Among African-Americans under age 45 (both men and women), 25% have a very or somewhat favorable view of Trump, which is double his share among older voters.  I’m betting that if the gender gap is consistent, more than one third of young black men would be open to voting for Trump.  That tells me that the Democrats cannot count on 90% forever.  Come 2048 or 2052, their share of the black vote will be down to 70-75%.  I’d say that the reason is that Boomers and Silents who came of age during the Civil Rights era are more likely to be die-hard Democrats while the younger generation is more open to trying something new especially if they are not pleased with how things have gone under Democrat control. 

How would the Electoral Map change if Trump got 25-30% of the black vote?  He’d shore up Georgia and North Carolina with margins up to 10 points.  Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania would not be as close.  Virginia, Colorado and even Delaware would become more competitive, but it would probably not be enough to flip them.  He’d need close to 50 percent.  In Maine and New Hampshire, it would not matter because the black population is very small.  The only states that would have flipped based on the 2016 numbers would have been Minnesota and Nevada but that’s still 16 EV. 

Here are some of the policies that I support, which would affect the black community:

-Aggressive enforcement of anti-discrimination laws, including assurance that a qualified candidate with an ethnic sounding name is given an interview.

-Expand on criminal justice reform and de-criminalize most non-violent drug offenses.

-School choice, including vouchers for private schools

-Reasonable reforms to Police Departments

-Ending abortion, which disproportionately affects the black community

-Mentor programs for at-risk youth.

-Incentivize 2 parent households

-Stress that you can make it in 21^st century America with good life decisions. 

I’m betting that most black Democrats would agree with me on many of these issues.  My question is this: Would you consider voting for a Republican who campaigned on these issues?  If not, what is lacking? 

Come 2048 or 2052, it will be the Hispanic vote that will make the difference.  Trump got roughly 30%, which was slightly better than Romney and almost even with McCain but well behind Bush-43.  Republicans will need close to 40 to remain competitive.  That would shore up Texas, Florida and Arizona while putting New Mexico in play.  It would flip Nevada for sure and make Colorado competitive.  If Texas and Arizona go blue, it’s pretty much game over for the GOP.  How to get up to 40 could be tricky.  Do not cave in on immigration.  I’m dead set against a path to citizenship for illegals but I’m okay with shielding them from deportation if they are otherwise law-abiding.  Compromise that in exchange for the wall?  Nice idea but Congress will never approve.  Stay focused on jobs and growth.  Policies that benefit all Americans will also benefit African-Americans and Hispanics.