Put yourself in this difficult position. You are an 18-year-old graduating senior in high school. You’ve been offered a full scholarship to play baseball at Auburn University, one of the best programs in the country. You’ve also been drafted late in the first round and were offered a $1 million signing bonus. What would you do? There is no right or wrong answer and it depends on many factors.
What team drafted you?
That’s a fairly minor consideration if you are an outfielder or infielder but a bit more important if you are a pitcher. I’d certainly hesitate to sign with an organization with a history of ruining young arms. I’d be a bit more inclined to sign with a winning organization in a city that I like such as Atlanta rather than a perennial losing and rebuilding team. Then again, if you are a top tier prospect, you could be moved from a contender to a losing team in a trade before you reach MLB.
Are you a good student?
I recently surprised a Northern relative by informing them that Alabama’s best universities have tough admission standards. For example, Auburn’s average HS GPA and SAT scores are about 3.8 and 1200 respectively. At Duke and Vanderbilt, standards are even higher. If you are an average high school student who makes B’s and C’s, you are unlikely to be able to cope with the academic load and earn a valued degree on your own merit. Perhaps, you are not college material at all and would be embarking on a career in manual labor if not for baseball. In that case, it’s an easy decision. Sign the contract.
Social Life/Team Chemistry
As I’ve stated on previous posts, every player drafted by an MLB team was not just the star of their high school team. They were among the 2 or 3 best in the conference. Even the weakest players would rank in the 99th or even 99.5th percentile among Varsity high school players. You will not be a standout in that group unless your skills are other worldly. That’ll be a bit of a shock. On the other hand, if you were good enough to be drafted high, you are projected to be a star on the college team and can probably date pretty much anyone. I would imagine that team chemistry in college is much better than in the Minors. Big advantage to college.
Socioeconomic Status
A college scholarship is certainly a big deal for a family that is not well off economically. You’ll have no student debt to pay off and if you have the academic skills, it will set you up nicely for a comfortable life even if you cannot succeed in baseball down the road. On the other hand, a million-dollar check in a lump sum amount would be nothing short of immediately life changing. You could buy your parents a nice home in a good neighborhood and have the equivalent of 20 years of an average salary. Barring stupid decisions, you will have to get a real job but you will live comfortably even if you fail in baseball.
Coaching/Competition-
The caliber of competition at a top tier college program is not even on par with low-A in the Minors. Sure, you’ll see a few future Major Leaguers but the average player and even a very good college player will not be good enough to be drafted. If you go to the Minors, you don’t have to worry about classes and studying for exams and will have access to the best coaches. You will live and breathe baseball as it will require a 100% commitment. Because of this, if your skills really are MLB-caliber, you will reach the top up to 2 years sooner and have a greater chance of a longer career. I would encourage everyone to follow their dreams especially if they are realistic, but you’ve got to have a Plan B. Take a few classes at the local college or attend a trade school during the off-season.
Age 18 vs 21-
Nobody has a crystal ball and it’s hard to predict how a prospect will develop. You could get injured or develop health problems. Many HS phenoms stagnate and are passed on the depth chart by those who are still growing at 21. It may not be until you hit 25 or 26 that it becomes clear that you are not going to make it. Sure, going to college after washing out in AA ball can be done but enrolling as a Freshman at 25 would not be easy. I was a 24 year old Gen X-er when I finished graduate school and it was quite difficult to relate to 18 year old Millennials. Sadly, many players with no other job skills hang on past 30 and play in AAA hoping to get one last cup of coffee in the Majors. I’ve met one of those guys before. He was an insurance salesman who told stories of facing Hall of Famers such as Ken Griffey Jr. in Spring Training. I’ll bet he’s fared better in life after baseball than most other wash outs.
If you are drafted out of college at 21 or 22, you play in Short Season ball among All-Star caliber college players. Half are cut the following year and move on with life. If you survive the cut, you play in low-A then high-A ball. Players there were among the better of collegiate all stars but still young and raw. Double A is the league that really separates the men from the boys. If you are successful there, you’ve got a decent chance of getting at least a cup of coffee in the Majors. Still, if you want to retire comfortably, you need to last 3 years to become arbitration eligible, in which case you get the multi-million dollar contract. High school players drafted in the top 100 overall (Rounds 1-3) have about a 1 in 6 chance of appearing in at least 1 MLB game. Since it’s easier to predict a 21 year old’s development, their odds improve to 2 in 5. Still, more often than not, you won’t make it.
What would I have done?
I come from an upper-middle class family and had the grades to get into a school of the caliber of Auburn or Clemson but not Duke or Vanderbilt without an athletic scholarship. If given a signing bonus of $1 million, I would go to college and hope to be drafted again 3 years later. It would not be all that difficult of a decision. A $5 million bonus? I’d rethink it. That means that I was among the top 5 picks overall and pretty much a can’t miss prospect. I’d definitely sign that contract but would have a Plan B. It would take at least $2M to sign me. Probably $2.5.
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