Friday, March 13, 2020

Rant: Corona Virus and Response


I am NOT very concerned about the Coronavirus.  While they say, it is better to be safe than sorry, IMHO the current panic is over the top.  Sure, reasonable restrictions can and should be undertaken.  I would temporarily close the border or at the very least ban travel to and from countries hard hit by the virus such as China, Italy, Iran and South Korea.  Those seeking re-entry to the USA should be carefully screened and infected people must be quarantined until they recover.  Refusing a handshake from a stranger should not be taken as offensive.  Wash hands more frequently and try to avoid touching your face, especially areas around your mouth, nose or eyes.  Take Vitamins, especially C, and minerals to boost your immune system.  I would not go on a cruise or travel to areas hard hit by the virus such as Seattle, New York and California. 

Out of the 350 million people in the United States, there have been (as of 3/13/20) roughly 1,000 confirmed cases and 39 deaths.  26 of those deaths were in a Seattle nursing home so that leaves just 13 others.  True, even 1 is tragic but least up to this point, it pales in comparison to the common flu and is far LESS deadly than SARS and other pandemics.  I feel that the WHO’s quoted mortality rate of 3% is an over-estimate.  I believe many people brushed off what they thought was a common flu but was in fact, the coronavirus.  I’ve heard horrific predictions that 60-70% of the globe will be infected before it’s over.  Highly doubtful.  I believe it will peak by the end of the month then begin to decline as the warm weather sets in.    If you are under 60 years of age and do not have a compromised immune system or pre-existing lung disease, your risk is practically nil.  It may take time for lung function to fully recover, as with pneumonia and bronchitis, but I doubt that many cases result in permanent damage.  On the flip side however, an otherwise healthy person could be a carrier and pass on the disease to somebody in a higher risk group.  My parents are both in their 70s and I could never forgive myself if I carelessly infected one of them and it turned deadly.  The elderly and other high-risk cases should be strongly encouraged, but not required to stay at home as much as possible and to avoid large gatherings of people.

While my energy and vitality has diminished in recent years, my immune system has actually become MORE resilient.  I do get the occasional common cold just like everyone else but in the last 4 years, I have never missed work due to illness.  I never take the flu shot but have only had the flu once in the last 15 years and it really was NOT that bad.  I was out of commission for 2-3 days and had some residual crud in my system for 2-3 weeks but after that, I was as good as new.  Bronchitis can be a little rougher with the cough and congestion and I did have walking pneumonia in middle school.  The latter took several months before I was fully recovered but eventually, I did.  I figure that if I did catch the coronavirus, the worst would be over within 5-7 days and I’d have to lay low for another week as a precaution.  I’ve been through worse.  Again, the real risk is to others in higher risk groups, but those risks can be mitigated by taking normal precautions. 

Over the past several days, we have seen schools closed and all sporting events cancelled or postponed, including my planned half marathon in Salisbury, Maryland.  The stock market is tanking, and we could see small businesses and people’s livelihoods destroyed not because of the virus but because of the panic associated with it.  One e-mail described the current panic as trying to kill a fly with a shotgun or burning down a house because it is infested with a few roaches or mice.  That’s not far off.  As for my race, the RD had no choice.  The governor decreed that all public gatherings with 250 or more attendees MUST be canceled until further notice.  I assume that must also include large church services.  Again, IMO, this is over the top but there is nothing that I can do about it.  I’ve heard some SICK (in the head) people who are actually rooting for a pandemic because it would hurt Trump’s re-election chances. 

Now, this changes the plan to finish the 50-state challenge in 2020.  My race will NOT offer any refunds but will give deferred entries for 2021.  That’s probably what I’ll do.  It’s possible that I could find another Maryland race in the Fall that would only require a flight to Baltimore with no rental car or even a 10.5 hour drive to the western part of the state but my heart was set on either Salisbury or Ocean City because I spent a summer in that area and went on family vacations as a child to Virginia Beach.  There is a chance that an early May race in Ocean City will go off as planned so that could be an option.  Odds are, I’ll just take the deferral and finish next year.

I still want to do something BIG for the year that I turn 40.  I could still go to Hawaii in November as planned but it would be state #48 or #49 then I finish up in either Maryland or Minnesota next year.  That will not feel nearly as special as #50 in Hawaii.  Option B is to book a trip with Marathon Tours and Travel to Cape Town, South Africa in October.  There, the race would be a 10K because there is no half marathon and I am not in shape for a full.  Cape Town has long been on my bucket list and I’d like to do it sooner rather than later.  South Africa has begun instituting policies that were disastrous in Zimbabwe, so I don’t have a good feeling about that nation’s future.  As stated in a previous post, things can turn around to make countries more appealing for tourists, but it can also get worse.  I’m leaning towards Option B.  South Africa in 2020 and Hawaii in 2021.  Hopefully, I can still hit Maine, South Dakota and possibly Minnesota after the coronavirus is contained.  Either way, I will make no definitive plans until that happens. 

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